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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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Two interesting books are Spillover by David Quammen and The Hot Zone by Richard Preston.

They confidently suggest that with any virus at least 10% of the world's population will survive.   For example some people are immune to the AIDS virus - although you have no way of knowing it in advance.

They also mention that every virus requires a reservoir host - basically an animal that can harbour the virus without getting sick.  Often the host is bats.

Finally since these virologists know what will make you sick they also know what will not make you sick.  They are happy to eat things I wouldn't go near.  They think termites are delicious.

(Maybe I should have mention that in the Heebie Geebies thread)

Edited by Fullerene
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12 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Yeah, and you hardly ever hear a town cryer banging on about the Black Death any more. Load of fuss over nothing. In my day, we all died without making such a big deal out of it.

The good old days, wouldn't mind a bit of plague to spice things up tbh

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25 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:



This seems even less scary than SARS. China is huge and 9 folk have died? So f**k. Probably 10000 folk were hit by cars there yesterday and nobody is ripping up the roads.

The chances of China's body count being accurate are essentially nil. It's a certainty that this is more widespread than is currently known or, more accurately, acknowledged.

Already reports of people with the same symptoms being hospitalised, dying and being cremated without ever being tested. And queues of people with symptoms being treated but not tested.

Not saying the world is going to end, but one of these viruses is going to do serious global damage sometime. It's a when, not an if.

Bad timing for Chinese New Year. Hundreds of millions of Chinese people on the move internally and internationally.

Edited by JTS98
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14 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

The chances of China's body count being accurate are essentially nil. It's a certainty that this is more widespread than is currently known or, more accurately, acknowledged.

Already reports of people with the same symptoms being hospitalised, dying and being cremated without ever being tested. And queues of people with symptoms being treated but not tested.

Not saying the world is going to end, but one of these viruses is going to do serious global damage sometime. It's a when, not an if.

Bad timing for Chinese New Year. Hundreds of millions of Chinese people on the move internally and internationally.

Why are you picking and choosing which reports you believe coming from China?

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3 minutes ago, Dee Man said:

Why are you picking and choosing which reports you believe coming from China?

I live and work around Chinese people. I know what they think about what's coming out of China. And we also know that China has previous for under-reporting this kind of thing.

I think you'd have to be extremely naive to think the Chinese are being open about this. It would be something of a first.

Edited by JTS98
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1 minute ago, MixuFixit said:

Yeah but SARS didn't do anything
Bird flu didn't do anything
Swine flu didn't do anything

etc.

No. But one of them will. Might be this one. Might not.

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There's been a few cases over here in Japan already. The Government has issued warnings for people planning on visiting China for the New Year.

Even if the numbers seem large, you have to remember that more people live in Asia that the other Continents combined.

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1 hour ago, staggy1929 said:

this'll all blow over fairly quickly, Bird flu and Ebola were another two 'apocalypse' diseases that don't seem to get any media coverage now.

Ebola wont get any news coverage as long as it stays in Africa. People don't care as long as westerners aren't impacted 14 new cases of Ebola between 8-14 Jan 2020 according to the UN 2236 deaths 1133 survivors.

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38 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

I live and work around Chinese people. I know what they think about what's coming out of China. And we also know that China has previous for under-reporting this kind of thing.

I think you'd have to be extremely naive to think the Chinese are being open about this. It would be something of a first.

^^^Some of his best friends are Chinese.

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5 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Authorities in China have warned that a new coronoavirus that has killed nine people could mutate further and cause more deaths.  The virus, known also as 2019-nCoV, is understood to be a new strain of coronavirus that has not previously been identified in humans.  Signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties.

Cases have been reported in South Korea, the US and Thailand. 

Is it time to stock up on those little surgical masks?

Are we all completely fucked?

Should I take the Tamiflu I stockpiled for bird flu?

Have any P&Bers ever been part of a worldwide pandemic?

NO, NO, NO, Yes.

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2 hours ago, JTS98 said:

I live and work around Chinese people. I know what they think about what's coming out of China. And we also know that China has previous for under-reporting this kind of thing.

I think you'd have to be extremely naive to think the Chinese are being open about this. It would be something of a first.

Clearly the Chinese government are masters of propaganda and misinformation but by the same token the media are notorious bullshitters and exaggeration merchants which is why I'm asking why you're choosing to believe one and not the other, unless you have more reliable sources?

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