Robin.Hood Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Alloa to go downArbroath to finish 9th.Shame 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFC. Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, AyrTroopMajor said: Would expect Dunfermline and Morton to punt their managers if they find themselves in real danger of being emptied from the division. This (usually) brings with it a new manager 'bounce', which could prove to be the difference. On the opposite side of the coin, I would expect Arbroath (certainly) and QOTS and Alloa (probably) to stick with their management teams regardless. Crawford is going nowhere. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Jag Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Alloa to go down automatically, Morton to finish in (and lose) the play-offs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I suspect things will look even bleaker for us in 2 weeks time given our fixtures but after that we've got a couple of good ones that can hopefully put us right back into the mix. Everyone seems to be worse than they were at the start of the season except Partick Thistle. (On paper) We also play Alloa at home on the last day of the season. Feel like this could be a huge game. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 (edited) When McCall took over we’d played 6 league games, so obviously had 30 left. We’ve now played exactly half of them before any January signings play a league game. We’ve taken 6 wins and 20 points from those 15 games, and doing the same again, with theoretically better players, would keep us safe. In terms of the spreadsheet, I’ll do a proper post on Monday morning, but it’s looking likely that a lower total than last year will be necessary for safety on the basis that DU continue to run away with the league and take points from everybody. At the moment 52 points is the “more likely than not to be in the playoffs” and 39 points is “more likely than not to be safe” threshold. Edited January 22, 2020 by Fuctifano 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 It all points to us and Alloa finishing in the bottom two, however we have proved from day one that we are hard to beat, don't lose many goals and have a spirited bunch along with an experienced manager You only ‘proved’ this for the first fifteen or so games of the season though: since then you’ve been quite easy to beat and are getting the ‘Brechin in Division One’ side of your experienced manager. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Would expect Dunfermline and Morton to punt their managers if they find themselves in real danger of being emptied from the division. This (usually) brings with it a new manager 'bounce', which could prove to be the difference. On the opposite side of the coin, I would expect Arbroath (certainly) and QOTS and Alloa (probably) to stick with their management teams regardless.There’s no chance Hopkin is leaving unless he rage quits. And unlike other midtable teams who look weakened from the transfer window so far we’re holding steady, so unless that changes I’d expect us to finish a pretty mediocre 6/7th as most Morton fans predicted for this squad in the summer. Dunfermline are indeed an interesting one; I think their squad is a fair bit better than the rest of the pack and that Crawford is the main issue. If they can just keep trundling along in 5th before plummeting in March/April then that’d be lovely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cilitbang Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Alloa automatic relegation due to lack of depth and running out of steam. Ayr down in the playoffs and the salt will be glorious. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poet of the Macabre Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 If: We lose to Dundee, Thistle win at Arbroath, Alloa win at Queens and Morton lost at United Then the table will look something like this: 5th Pars 25pts 6th Queens 25pts 7th Arbroath 25pts 8th Thistle 25pts 9th Morton 25pts 10th Alloa 24pts Bit tight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 If: We lose to Dundee, Thistle win at Arbroath, Alloa win at Queens and Morton lost at United Then the table will look something like this: 5th Pars 25pts 6th Queens 25pts 7th Arbroath 25pts 8th Thistle 25pts 9th Morton 25pts 10th Alloa 24pts Bit tight. Too tight. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smokerson Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 39 minutes ago, virginton said: You only ‘proved’ this for the first fifteen or so games of the season though: since then you’ve been quite easy to beat and are getting the ‘Brechin in Division One’ side of your experienced manager. Well that's incorrect, our win at Inverness was our 19th game of the season. Since then we have been poor and lost to Morton and Alloa which were tight games but worrying we lost both. I think it may turn out to be a 3 way dog fight between us, Alloa and Morton. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, Poet of the Macabre said: If: We lose to Dundee, Thistle win at Arbroath, Alloa win at Queens and Morton lost at United Then the table will look something like this: 5th Pars 25pts 6th Queens 25pts 7th Arbroath 25pts 8th Thistle 25pts 9th Morton 25pts 10th Alloa 24pts Bit tight. 2 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said: Too tight. To mention... Formwise it looks like Arbroath in the Championship playoff and Alloa to finish bottom. However a long way to go yet. I would say the current top 4 should be safe...anybody else? Who knows 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D'Jaffo Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 To mention... Formwise it looks like Arbroath in the Championship playoff and Alloa to finish bottom. However a long way to go yet. I would say the current top 4 should be safe...anybody else? Who knows I know it may not look like it but our safety very much hinges on what we do between now and next Friday. Losing Forrest and not adequately replacing him or Kerr not getting the other players he wants could hurt us. Houston signing for us is a big plus as it frees up a loan, next will be bringing in a midfielder or two and a centre half. Then replacing the injured Geggan and potentially Forrest. Will be a very busy week or so for us. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poet of the Macabre Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 (edited) Ayr United reaching the Premiership play-offs two years in a row would tell you all you need to know about the standard of this division. They're not a terrible side and they deserve it if they finish top four but should embarrass sides like Dunfermline, Thistle and Morton. Edited January 22, 2020 by Poet of the Macabre 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyrTroopMajor Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Poet of the Macabre said: Ayr United reaching the Premiership play-offs two years in a row would tell you all you need to know about the standard of this division. They're not a terrible side and they deserve it if they finish top four but should embarrass sides like Dunfermline, Thistle and Morton. Dunfermline - yes. Thistle - yes. Morton - Not really. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFC. Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 (edited) 20 minutes ago, AyrTroopMajor said: Dunfermline - yes. Thistle - yes. Morton - Not really. Morton? When was the last time they played in the top flight or were anything of relevance other than causing the odd cup upset? Shouldn't slag them off; we're starting to become like them tbh. Perennial diddies. Edited January 22, 2020 by DAFC. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 To mention... Formwise it looks like Arbroath in the Championship playoff and Alloa to finish bottom. However a long way to go yet. I would say the current top 4 should be safe...anybody else? Who knows Form wise we are doomed Although I think the form looks a bit worse than it actually has been. The 5 games from December 1st to the start of January were really tough. Toughest run we will have this season. Everyone's form seems to be all over the place. Hence the tightness 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 22 minutes ago, 1320Lichtie said: Form wise we are doomed Although I think the form looks a bit worse than it actually has been. The 5 games from December 1st to the start of January were really tough. Toughest run we will have this season. Everyone's form seems to be all over the place. Hence the tightness Also Arbroath have failed to score in 38% of their league matches behind only QoS at 42%. Goals can certainly make a difference at the business end of the season. Hopefully Rudden can start to finish the chances Miller primarily has been missing of late. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaggyness Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 To mention... Formwise it looks like Arbroath in the Championship playoff and Alloa to finish bottom. However a long way to go yet. I would say the current top 4 should be safe...anybody else? Who knows [emoji2377] 10 points separating 3rd and 10th, I would say only the top two are definitely safe. However, I can't see Dundee being in any difficulty even with flapjack in goal. Ayr's form under kerr is still to really be established. Would expect alloa to finish bottom but where everyone else finishes would be guesswork. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Also Arbroath have failed to score in 38% of their league matches behind only QoS at 42%. Goals can certainly make a difference at the business end of the season. Hopefully Rudden can start to finish the chances Miller primarily has been missing of late.I don't personally think Partick have anything to worry about. 4 solid signings there. It'll be us, Alloa, Morton and Qots, possibly Dunfermline if they don't pick up soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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