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The Relegation Battle


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16 hours ago, AsimButtHitsASix said:

I lived in Tottenham for years. Proper fried chicken on every street corner. KFC is for poseurs

Authentic city street food is somewhat thin on the ground in Clackmannanshire.

Anyway, hoping they win today. We're not lucky enough for Morten to somehow end up in the bottom two at the end of the season but it would be great if Alloa weren't.

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24 Feb update, only 6 games played since the last update due to weather / biscuit cup related postponements

Current points for 8th place based on 1000 simmed seasons:

Min: 33

More likely than not: 40

90% sure: 43

Points for 4th Place

Min: 46

More likely than not: 52

90% sure: 54

I’ve also done these for leagues one and two (can’t really do the prem past the split) and the corresponding league one figures for 8th are 30/35/39 and 4th are 47/56/59 which shows the different “bunching” of the two leagues i.e. 35 points in league one will more likely than not keep you up but in the championship it’ll keep you up less than 5% of the time, but a higher total will be needed for the promotion play offs in L1

Also added a couple more things based on what 538.com  do, calculated that for each of the 1000 simmed seasons what the average final points total for each team is. This works out close to but not identical to their current points per game, model is quite high on Dundee, low on Ayr and Arbroath and expects a bit of movement towards the mean everywhere else.

I can also pick out how the placings pan out for each team – I’ve used Dunfermline (currently showing as 94% safe) as an example . The first graph shows the % of times they finished in each position, and the second graph amount of times they finished on the selected number of points.

I understand how fans can look and say “how can we be 94% safe if we’re only 5 points ahead of 9th”  and of course if this ends up being one of the 6% of times they're not safe then it looks a bit egg on face, but this shows what a team who are (currently) rated as about the league average would expect to achieve based on their performance over the last two seasons, and 94% of the time it’ll be enough to keep them up.

Of course if their entire team came down with coronavirus and they had to play free agent ringers or kids until the end of the season I might look to manually downgrade them ...

24 feb pt one.PNG

24 feb 2.PNG

24 feb 3.PNG

Edited by Fuctifano
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Arbroath's steak and black pudding pie is far and away the best pie I've ever had at the fitba. It was so good I forgot where I was for a moment, which was great as we were getting gubbed at the time.
 


Arbroath do beautiful pies.
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Ever since Dundee outsourced their pies every one I've had at Dens has been cracking. Probably would have to agree on the Steak and Black Pudding Pie at Arbroath though, was good enough to help me forget how cold, wet and miserable I was at the game.

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On 24/02/2020 at 18:50, DiegoDiego said:

I've no idea how Thistle's chances of safety have increased since the last update, but it's pleasant reading.

After our bonus points last night might have to help Queens on Saturday and put PT back to nailed on 10th

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