Ireland

[DublinMagyar]

Sinn Fein now ahead of FG in the polls

 

Mary Lou now invited onto final leader's debate

[Kejan]

Interesting! Are people fed up, Magyar? Didn't Sinn Fèin pol really badly in the last council elections (losing most and more of the seats they gained the four years before hand?)

Take it Leo isn't well liked. It'll be interesting to see if FG or FF would ever go into a coalition or an agreement with SF?! Didn't both rule it out at the start of the game?

I seen a poll that had the Social Democrats on 3%! Take it that gamble of a new party isn't paying off?

[DublinMagyar]

Interesting! Are people fed up, Magyar? Didn't Sinn Fèin pol really badly in the last council elections (losing most and more of the seats they gained the four years before hand?) Take it Leo isn't well liked. It'll be interesting to see if FG or FF would ever go into a coalition or an agreement with SF?! Didn't both rule it out at the start of the game?

I seen a poll that had the Social Democrats on 3%! Take it that gamble of a new party isn't paying off?

 

People are extremely fucked off with FF/FG,especially the young & metropolitan, echoes of what happened to UK Labour the last decade or so Sinn Fein polled ok in last election but did not convert to seats (possibly turnout of the SF support). They are polling much much better this time and likely to be 2nd biggest party.

FF/FG still saying SFBaaaaad.

SD, I quite like em but a bit of an unknown quantity, I did attend a local debate regarding new Educate Together high school and their rep was excellent. They'll get 1 of my first 3 picks but not likely to win many more seats, 2 or 3 maybe

 

 

Eta - Labour (ire) even more despised than they are to the east!

 

 

[John Lambies Doos]

Interesting! Are people fed up, Magyar? Didn't Sinn Fèin pol really badly in the last council elections (losing most and more of the seats they gained the four years before hand?)
Take it Leo isn't well liked. It'll be interesting to see if FG or FF would ever go into a coalition or an agreement with SF?! Didn't both rule it out at the start of the game?
I seen a poll that had the Social Democrats on 3%! Take it that gamble of a new party isn't paying off?

Think Sinn Fein are only standing in half the seats so even with polling high Mary Lou can't become Taoiseach. However with FG/FF polling at only 45% they may have some say come formation of government.

[Colkitto]

Did you know the BBC banned an episode of Star Trek? And when Sky showed it, they cut this section talking about the reunification or Ireland?
The UK is so insecure, you can't even "suggest" it could happen in a fictional world...

 

 

 

[Lurkst]

45 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Did you know the BBC banned an episode of Star Trek? And when Sky showed it, they cut this section talking about the reunification or Ireland?
The UK is so insecure, you can't even "suggest" it could happen in a fictional world...

 

 

 

Only 4 years away!

They'll be able to join the bid for the 2030 World Cup...

 

[DublinMagyar]

Think Sinn Fein are only standing in half the seats so even with polling high Mary Lou can't become Taoiseach. However with FG/FF polling at only 45% they may have some say come formation of government.

42 candidates

Latest poll gives.......42 TDs


Won't happen tho

[DublinMagyar]

SF take the lead in poll this morning 25% to FF ON 23

[Jacksgranda]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51369150

[denltfc]

Great to see a thread on Ireland. 

I have been out canvassing nearly every day for the last 3 weeks in Dublin Fingal, Dun Laoghaire and back home in Roscommon- Galway East. All of the below observations should be taken with a pinch of salt as I am a biased Fianna Fáiler and former member of its National Executive and active in constituency organisation etc. 

• Sinn Fein surge is real, middle class old ladies were saying they were voting SF for the first time and most of their kids were too, lower income areas rampant SF
• Greens are doing well in posher middle class areas taking a few percent off FG
• No great love for FF in Dublin but considered better than FG - a few of our voters are returning but its slow 
• FG really fucked up with the RIC commemoration. There election campaign was to be based on Brexit and economy not getting any traction, its all about health, housing and keeping the pension at 65.
• Last few days attacks on Sinn Fein over Paul Quinn murder, Special Criminal Court were starting to get some OAP's agitated and worried about SF in government.
• Rural Ireland canvassing feeling FG is too Dublin centric, posh boys etc Farmers are fuming over beef prices and scared shitless about the Greens wanting to half the national beef suckler herd. No economic recovery felt in the west of Ireland.

Election is tomorrow and key question is SF always under performs its poll ratings by a few percent but if its polling 25% it should get 21/22% which means about 30 TD's and most will top the poll and be elected on the first count and no need to worry about transfers. Turnout of SF core demographic voters younger and C2DE voters is always low but I feel SF machine will be going door to door tomorrow asking people out to vote. Forecast is for a very wet and windy day which might effect voters with no transport and fickle ones.  

I think FF will get 54/55 and might get a few more with lucky breaks. FG are heading for a shit election and could be under 40 seats. 

My gut says after the election it will be 8 weeks of talks and it will be a FF/Green/Labour/Social Democrats Government with a few FF independents like the Healy Rea's , Noel Grealish and Mattie McGrath bought off to pad the numbers. Both FG and FF are adamant no coalition with SF but all talk is redundant after an election in my opinion. FF have a new mechanism where a party conference has to agree coalition. If the party tried to force a deal with FG a quarter of the crowd would walk out. There is real hatred to FG amongst the members especially rural ones where the local blueshirts always looked down on the FF plebs.  

[John Lambies Doos]

Great to see a thread on Ireland. 
I have been out canvassing nearly every day for the last 3 weeks in Dublin Fingal, Dun Laoghaire and back home in Roscommon- Galway East. All of the below observations should be taken with a pinch of salt as I am a biased Fianna Fáiler and former member of its National Executive and active in constituency organisation etc. 

• Sinn Fein surge is real, middle class old ladies were saying they were voting SF for the first time and most of their kids were too, lower income areas rampant SF
• Greens are doing well in posher middle class areas taking a few percent off FG
• No great love for FF in Dublin but considered better than FG - a few of our voters are returning but its slow 
• FG really fucked up with the RIC commemoration. There election campaign was to be based on Brexit and economy not getting any traction, its all about health, housing and keeping the pension at 65.
• Last few days attacks on Sinn Fein over Paul Quinn murder, Special Criminal Court were starting to get some OAP's agitated and worried about SF in government.
• Rural Ireland canvassing feeling FG is too Dublin centric, posh boys etc Farmers are fuming over beef prices and scared shitless about the Greens wanting to half the national beef suckler herd. No economic recovery felt in the west of Ireland.

Election is tomorrow and key question is SF always under performs its poll ratings by a few percent but if its polling 25% it should get 21/22% which means about 30 TD's and most will top the poll and be elected on the first count and no need to worry about transfers. Turnout of SF core demographic voters younger and C2DE voters is always low but I feel SF machine will be going door to door tomorrow asking people out to vote. Forecast is for a very wet and windy day which might effect voters with no transport and fickle ones.  
I think FF will get 54/55 and might get a few more with lucky breaks. FG are heading for a shit election and could be under 40 seats. 
My gut says after the election it will be 8 weeks of talks and it will be a FF/Green/Labour/Social Democrats Government with a few FF independents like the Healy Rea's , Noel Grealish and Mattie McGrath bought off to pad the numbers. Both FG and FF are adamant no coalition with SF but all talk is redundant after an election in my opinion. FF have a new mechanism where a party conference has to agree coalition. If the party tried to force a deal with FG a quarter of the crowd would walk out. There is real hatred to FG amongst the members especially rural ones where the local blueshirts always looked down on the FF plebs.  

As you're FF, What's your thoughts on Stephen Donnelly?
Voted in overwhelming in at last Dail and jumped ship from Social Democrats to FF after 2 months. Not a cats chance he would have got in 4yrs ago as FF. Do you rate him, or just all bluff, bluster and self preservation.
Genuine question.

[Jacksgranda]

3 hours ago, denltfc said:

 

•  

My gut says after the election it will be 8 weeks of talks and it will be a FF/Green/Labour/Social Democrats Government with a few FF independents like the Healy Rea's , Noel Grealish and Mattie McGrath bought off to pad the numbers. Both FG and FF are adamant no coalition with SF but all talk is redundant after an election in my opinion. FF have a new mechanism where a party conference has to agree coalition. If the party tried to force a deal with FG a quarter of the crowd would walk out. There is real hatred to FG amongst the members especially rural ones where the local blueshirts always looked down on the FF plebs.  

Mentioned this to a mate of mine last night who said he was finding the Irish election "interesting", we'll see who's willing to "legitimise" Sinn Fein in government once all the seats are filled. The prospect of power would make the most rabid anti Shinner have amnesia...

[O'Kelly Isley III]

As a matter of interest does the Church still exert influence in elections, or is this another area of public life where they no longer call the shots ?

[John Lambies Doos]

As a matter of interest does the Church still exert influence in elections, or is this another area of public life where they no longer call the shots ?

Not at all

[denltfc]

3 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

As you're FF, What's your thoughts on Stephen Donnelly?
Voted in overwhelming in at last Dail and jumped ship from Social Democrats to FF after 2 months. Not a cats chance he would have got in 4yrs ago as FF. Do you rate him, or just all bluff, bluster and self preservation.
Genuine question.

I think he is under severe pressure to hold his seat. He won it last time on anti FF votes and all his candidates he picked for FF in local elections lost. His former colleague Soc Dem councilor Jennifer Whitmore has a great chance as does the green.  FF local organisation dont like him. 

I found him to be quite good and someone FF should of used more. He comes across as intelligent and urbane unlike a few of our TD's. could you imagine what scottish TV viewers would make of Willie O'Dea !! He was brutal in the RTE Primetime debate on health though so I might be wrong lol

[Clockwork]

Mentioned this to a mate of mine last night who said he was finding the Irish election "interesting", we'll see who's willing to "legitimise" Sinn Fein in government once all the seats are filled. The prospect of power would make the most rabid anti Shinner have amnesia...

Would imagine the U.K. Government have serious concerns over a possible SF Coalition Government in the Republic, at such a sensitive stage in Brexit negotiations!?

[welshbairn]

Would imagine the U.K. Government have serious concerns over a possible SF Coalition Government in the Republic, at such a sensitive stage in Brexit negotiations!?

I think all the parties are agreed on damage limitation to the Irish economy and keeping the border open as the Brexit priorities, not unification. And keeping the EU onside. I doubt a coalition including SF would change strategy.

[DublinMagyar]

Journal.ie at 1pm

[welshbairn]

Astonishing turnaround since the European elections, not sure what's changed. Maybe just another example of loss of faith in centrist parties.

[Carnoustie Young Guvnor]

13 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Astonishing turnaround since the European elections, not sure what's changed. Maybe just another example of loss of faith in centrist parties.

The UK is falling apart.  First time ever majority for Republican parties in N Ireland, Sinn Fein likely to win in ROI today, Plaid on the rise in Wales and support for indy nearing 30% and SNP hegemony in Scotland with polls showing majority in favour of indy.  The UK is done now, it won't see out the decade.