Ireland

[Bohemian]

I cant see Social Democrats or Labour going with FF or FG either. If they had any sense they wont. 

[Jacksgranda]

Sinn Fein might be able to cobble together a coalition from all the small parties but they would need most of the independents too, and that won't be enough for 80 as all the independents won't come on board. Any such coalition won't last as there are too many parties with too many egos, sorry, policies to get anything going long term.

They need Fianna Fail to get the necessary numbers, as Fine Gael have excluded themselves from dealing with Sinn Fein. Who needs who more (sinn Fein and Fianna Fail)? And if they can't/won't make suitable arrangements for stable government, who will the electorate blame and then punish in the subsequent election?

[Bohemian]

33 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Sinn Fein might be able to cobble together a coalition from all the small parties but they would need most of the independents too, and that won't be enough for 80 as all the independents won't come on board. Any such coalition won't last as there are too many parties with too many egos, sorry, policies to get anything going long term.

They need Fianna Fail to get the necessary numbers, as Fine Gael have excluded themselves from dealing with Sinn Fein. Who needs who more (sinn Fein and Fianna Fail)? And if they can't/won't make suitable arrangements for stable government, who will the electorate blame and then punish in the subsequent election?

Judging by the election results half the country want change the other half want to keep the status quo.. everyone saying if there is another election SF will get a landslide, I'm not so sure now.  If it's a FF/FG/Labourish type coalition there might actually be a civil uprising I'm honestly struggling like everyone to see an amicable solution.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Bohemian said:

Judging by the election results half the country want change the other half want to keep the status quo.. everyone saying if there is another election SF will get a landslide, I'm not so sure now.  If it's a FF/FG/Labourish type coalition there might actually be a civil uprising I'm honestly struggling like everyone to see an amicable solution.

Best estimate by looking at the transfer of winning SF candidates' surpluses to leftish parties is that they could have got another 12 TDs by standing more candidates, but probably at the expense of less people willing to share power, so not a whole lot of difference. Like much of the world politics seems to be getting polarised 50/50 into 2 sides with no middle or common ground.

[John Lambies Doos]

Judging by the election results half the country want change the other half want to keep the status quo.. everyone saying if there is another election SF will get a landslide, I'm not so sure now.  If it's a FF/FG/Labourish type coalition there might actually be a civil uprising[emoji23] I'm honestly struggling like everyone to see an amicable solution.

Landslide is the wrong word but definitely 10 more seats leaving a Sinn Fein led coalition a certainty

[Bohemian]

57 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Best estimate by looking at the transfer of winning SF candidates' surpluses to leftish parties is that they could have got another 12 TDs by standing more candidates, but probably at the expense of less people willing to share power, so not a whole lot of difference. Like much of the world politics seems to be getting polarised 50/50 into 2 sides with no middle or common ground.

Yeah that's pretty much it, a stalemate in Irish political terms anyway

[Bohemian]

7 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

1 hour ago, Bohemian said:

Judging by the election results half the country want change the other half want to keep the status quo.. everyone saying if there is another election SF will get a landslide, I'm not so sure now.  If it's a FF/FG/Labourish type coalition there might actually be a civil uprising I'm honestly struggling like everyone to see an amicable solution.

Landslide is the wrong word but definitely 10 more seats leaving a Sinn Fein led coalition a certainty

See Welshbairns post..  

[Crùbag]

On 10/02/2020 at 21:30, Thane of Cawdor said:

Those polled have never been to Larne or Ballymena. Would the Republic seriously take a million furious loyalists to its bosom. How else are people expected to answer a question on part of what is supposed to be the national political creed? Northern Ireland is a political, financial and, to some extent,moral basket case and that might be a consideration in an actual vote. 

I'm sure a united Ireland prior to partition had many Protestants.

Sure, any major political move has challenges but the facts remains, most Irish want their country reunified. Many Protestants in the north are scunnered with living in that 'backet case' though many of the more intelligent ones have left leaving the knuckledraggers to their drug gans, bonfires and paramilitary fetisches - at least in working class areas.

[Thane of Cawdor]

10 minutes ago, Crùbag said:

I'm sure a united Ireland prior to partition had many Protestants.

Sure, any major political move has challenges but the facts remains, most Irish want their country reunified. Many Protestants in the north are scunnered with living in that 'backet case' though many of the more intelligent ones have left leaving the knuckledraggers to their drug gans, bonfires and paramilitary fetisches - at least in working class areas.

I believe it did, then many of them left. I'm only pointing out the difference between an understandable emotional response and a pragmatic evaluation of the realities.

[welshbairn]

If anything I'd say that a Sinn Fein Government in the South would put any likelihood of unification even more on the backburner.

[Bohemian]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

If anything I'd say that a Sinn Fein Government in the South would put any likelihood of unification even more on the backburner.

I agree, if they start going on about a United Ireland before they tackle or not seen to tackle the problems in the South they will be voted out as soon as they were voted in.  Again a big fat "IF"

Edit: personally I dont think they could help themselves, as seen in the count centres with their up the RA shouts 

Edited February 12, 2020 by Bohemian

[Jacksgranda]

1 hour ago, Crùbag said:

I'm sure a united Ireland prior to partition had many Protestants.

Sure, any major political move has challenges but the facts remains, most Irish want their country reunified. Many Protestants in the north are scunnered with living in that 'backet case' though many of the more intelligent ones have left leaving the knuckledraggers to their drug gans, bonfires and paramilitary fetisches - at least in working class areas.

Very similar to working class areas in the RoI, then.

[Bohemian]

24 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Very similar to working class areas in the RoI, then.

I think the drug gangs are winning the hearts and minds of the young scumbags in the ROI now.. more lucrative plus  you cant see their faces on Instagram with a gun wearing a balaclava.. sure that's no use

Edited February 12, 2020 by Bohemian

[Thane of Cawdor]

6 hours ago, Bohemian said:

No leftie government by the looks of it.

Sinn Féin’s attempts to pull together a government that excludes Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have begun to stutter, with smaller parties expressing scepticism such a coalition can be put together.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald would need to bring most of the 20 Independents in the new Dáil into government, as well as the Green Party, People Before Profit-Solidarity, Labour and the Social Democrats, to command a majority.

Several Independents have indicated a willingness to serve in government provided their demands are met.

It comes as Micheál Martin began to make contact with the leaders of the smaller parties yesterday, and a Fianna Fáil-led minority administration underpinned from Opposition by Fine Gael is not being ruled out by senior Fianna Fáil figures.

Mr Martin would have the numbers in the Dáil if he won the support of the Greens, Labour, Social Democrats and some Independents and got Leo Varadkar to commit to a confidence-and-supply arrangement

But Labour leader Brendan Howlin is expected to tell his parliamentary party today that his party, which won six seats, did not achieve enough critical mass in the election to enable it to enter government. Sources said Mr Howlin would leave open the prospect of Labour supporting a government from opposition on a number of key policy areas, such as housing.

SF negotiating team

Sinn Féin yesterday appointed a negotiating team, to be led by finance spokesman Pearse Doherty, which will seek to begin meetings with smaller parties and Independents on Wednesday.

Solidarity-People Before Profit TD Richard Boyd-Barrett said he did not believe there would be sufficient TDs for an alternative coalition of progressive parties led by Sinn Féin.

Social Democrats joint leader Róisín Shortall also said it appeared that the “numbers aren’t there” to construct a government without Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil.

The Green Party met on Tuesday morning and agreed to talk to all other parties. A source said “serious action on climate change and biodiversity loss” would be a red line for entering government.

While many Independent TDs seemed enthusiastic for participation in government, some also outlined significant demands in return for their support. The Cork South-West TD Michael Collins said he would insist on a new and dedicated ministry for fisheries. He also wanted to see a rural resettlement programme and said he would “not support any crowd” that had a role in a potential downgrading of Bantry Hospital.

Sources in both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael say they will stay out of the way and let Sinn Féin try – and fail, most expect – to put together a coalition.

Few TDs expect that the Dáil will elect a taoiseach when it meets on February 20th.

If Leo Varadkar is not elected taoiseach, he will resign his post, but he and his Ministers will continue in office as a caretaker Government until the Dáil approves their successors. There is no time limit on the period in which a caretaker government can hold office.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/the-numbers-aren-t-there-sinn-féin-s-preferred-left-leaning-coalition-gets-a-cool-reception-1.4170873?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR0S5YFYcyBOVk90OVSZ0gCOpMVXWFSkXL2_DmiTVvaFaB_VGFcIDxBxiPU

Shortall - what a great name. They like an oxymoron in Ireland.

[Clockwork]

If anything I'd say that a Sinn Fein Government in the South would put any likelihood of unification even more on the backburner.

.....and the least likely of the Political Parties involved, to encourage and cajole Unionists in Northern Ireland into believing that unification could be a peaceful and equitable process. They will need considerably more than a quarter of the vote in Northern Ireland and the Republic to REALLY press the issue in any case.

[Kejan]

Some cracking Irish surnames. Labour leader's surname is Howlin, feel like it should be Howlin' even.

What happens next? Had a peak on RTÈ, and they've got Sinn Fèin meeting the Greens and People Before Profit ; but would the likes of the Independents and Labour or Social Democrats come abroad or support their budgets in a loose confederation?

Surely, they'll be back at the polls in 6 months. Also, what happens if there's no Taoiseach elected next Thursday? Does Leo stay on in an interm position and the FG minority government until a new government is found?

 

[Crùbag]

5 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

Very similar to working class areas in the RoI, then.

RoI is a progressive utopia compared to NI.

[Jacksgranda]

1 minute ago, Crùbag said:

RoI is a progressive utopia compared to NI.

[Jacksgranda]

[Crùbag]

34 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Yes, on social issues, and probably across the board.

Apparently even Iran is more progressive on abortion than the Six Counties.

The power of the Catholic Church has long since waned in the Republic. They've had a gay immigrant as Taoiseach for the past few years and the party with largest popular vote made defence of refugees and immigrants a central part of their manifesto.