Ireland

[John Lambies Doos]

Heh buddy.

 

In summary

1. I don't think there are any official or even unofficial link between them anymore but many of their supporters would have previous connections and old habits are hard to break.

 

2. Yes and No. FG got voted out primarily based on the housing and health mess. In fairness to FG they spent the first few years getting Ireland solvent again. Plus latter years they were relying on FF to get stuff through so it was difficult. But: why make promises they couldn't keep. At last GE they promised free GP to all under 18s. This was never viable and only u6s plus medical cards get free GP...

 

Add in the global wave of populism to point 2 also. Big vote to SF was very much a protest vote imo.

 

 

[Jacksgranda]

8 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Heh buddy.

 

In summary

1. I don't think there are any official or even unofficial link between them anymore but many of their supporters would have previous connections and old habits are hard to break.

 

2. Yes and No. FG got voted out primarily based on the housing and health mess. In fairness to FG they spent the first few years getting Ireland solvent again. Plus latter years they were relying on FF to get stuff through so it was difficult. But: why make promises they couldn't keep. At last GE they promised free GP to all under 18s. This was never viable and only u6s plus medical cards get free GP...

 

Add in the global wave of populism to point 2 also. Big vote to SF was very much a protest vote imo.

 

 

Politicians, eh?

[The_Kincardine]

14 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Add in the global wave of populism to point 2 also. Big vote to SF was very much a protest vote imo.

So do you see it as a one off?  How about the (self serving and fairly pointless) border vote within 5 years?  Is that playing to the gallery?

[John Lambies Doos]

So do you see it as a one off?  How about the (self serving and fairly pointless) border vote within 5 years?  Is that playing to the gallery?

Depends what happen. Best thing for them is for FG/FF to ignore them and protest vote could be bigger next time.
Think Indy 2 will happen before border poll but by 2030 we will have an independent Scotland and an United Ireland. Just my opinion mind.....

[The_Kincardine]

2 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Depends what happen. Best thing for them is for FG/FF to ignore them and protest vote could be bigger next time.
Think Indy 2 will happen before border poll but by 2030 we will have an independent Scotland and an United Ireland. Just my opinion mind.....

I have bookmarked this and we'll have a laugh in 10 years.  One of us will be wrong but I can't say which one...

[John Lambies Doos]

I have bookmarked this and we'll have a laugh in 10 years.  One of us will be wrong but I can't say which one...

[emoji106]

[Thane of Cawdor]

5 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

This is a point I am interested in, too.  I'd love some feedback from the blokes who know much more about Irish politics than I so I'm polling @Jacksgrandaand @John Lambies Dooson two questions:

1.  Do you think that there is still a relationship between the IRA and Sinn Fein?  I get most of my news from Radio 4 and The Spectator and the latter has suggested a few times lately that SF is still controlled by some sort of spooky IRA council.  Is this just bollocks?

2.  Did Leo just take his eye off the day job?  Wee Varadkar has been running about Brussels for the past three years saying how toxic Brexit is and has been (I think) used by the EU.  OTOH he comes across as a smart and articulate bloke.  If he'd kept his hand on the tiller would FG have had such an abject electoral result or is he really best suited to being an EU shill?

Founded by a guy who used to edit The Courier. Fairly progressive initially then not so much. DC Thomson may now be a better source of objective information than the Barclay brothers and that's not saying much.

[invergowrie arab]

1. As an outsider looking in do the old provos still influence SF? Nae idea.

Do the active dilettantes have any love for SF.? A few trips to the Bogside in recent years tell me absolutely not. The 57 varieties of socialist nationalist Saoirse types see SF as collaborators but for all the flags and posters they are a tiny subset of republicans 

2. As an outsider looking in the seeds of this were sown in the financial crash. Ireland's "recovery" (and on the basis of economic growth it is a recovery. Stand on the upper decks of Croke Park and count the cranes around Dublin) has not benefitted ordinary people.

Had Leo taken his eye off the ball? No. He has succeeded by his metric of success. Like the scorpion and the frog he couldn't have done anything differently. 

It's just been a disaster for most people.

Edited February 14, 2020 by invergowrie arab

[The_Kincardine]

19 minutes ago, Thane of Cawdor said:

Founded by a guy who used to edit The Courier. Fairly progressive initially then not so much. DC Thomson may now be a better source of objective information than the Barclay brothers and that's not saying much.

I was asking for input from blokes who may know better. One has always had to treat the media with a certain disdain.

[The_Kincardine]

16 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

1. As an outsider looking in do the old provos still influence SF? Nae idea.

Do the active dilettantes have any love for SF.? A few trips to the Bogside in recent years tell me absolutely not. The 57 varieties of socialist nationalist Saoirse types see SF as collaborators but for all the flags and posters they are a tiny subset of republicans 

2. As an outsider looking in the seeds of this were sown in the financial crash. Ireland's "recovery" (and on the basis of economic growth it is a recovery. Stand on the upper decks of Croke Park and count the cranes around Dublin) has not benefitted ordinary people.

Had Leo taken his eye off the ball? No. He has succeeded by his metric of success. Like the scorpion and the frog he couldn't have done anything differently. 

It's just been a disaster for most people.

Good post and thanks.  When you describe SF as, " a tiny subset of republicans " then who actually are the mainstream republicans?  Is there an implication for the Nats hooking up with SF as we saw recently?

[invergowrie arab]

21 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Good post and thanks.  When you describe SF as, " a tiny subset of republicans " then who actually are the mainstream republicans?  Is there an implication for the Nats hooking up with SF as we saw recently?

I'm describing the hard-core nationalists who still see the bullet and bomb as a justifiable and realistic option as a subset. I think SF are now mainstream .

That's with the caveat that they may well be less democratic than their public face 

[invergowrie arab]

I would also say my trips to the Bogside are as a tourist interested in history rather than any sort of fan

But that's my impression I get from folk in pubs and on tours.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

Good post and thanks.  When you describe SF as, " a tiny subset of republicans " then who actually are the mainstream republicans?  Is there an implication for the Nats hooking up with SF as we saw recently?

FF, also push the mantra of a republican party. Vast majority of Irish people see themselves as Republicans as do the French. Tiny fraction still hold the gun

[Tutankhamen]

Everybody knows Sinn Fein policy on housing south of the border is decided by four OAPs in the Felons Club in Belfast, in between playing dominos and watching the live Man Utd game.

The bar manager is often seen taking calls for them from London, Washington and Dublin.

 

[Jacksgranda]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51509076

Article about Sinn Fein's "lone voice" TD

[alta-pete]

Interesting flight of fancy piece in yesterday’s Sunday Times about how reunification wouldn’t be an entirely outlandish idea on Boris’s watch but equally how Dublin really doesn’t want it back. 

Basic premise was Churchill (Boris’s hero) tried to give Ulster away to Dublin a couple of times but couldn’t persuade them to take it.

It now costs £11bn to run for 1.5m people who have no strategic or economic benefit to the wider U.K.  and who are overwhelmingly anti-Brexit. No real upsides for Westminster in working hard to keep it. And the pesky Irish Sea border problem with the EU would also be solved because there actually would become a border in the Irish Sea. 

But then, from the Irish perspective, it’d mean each southern taxpayer having to fork out an extra £1700 a skull in taxes just to maintain the status quo in the Province when the south have far more pressing issues to deal with in their public finances. And then what would they do with all those unruly Protestants who would feel that they had been sold out and likely cause a fair old kerfuffle? 
 

Conclusion seemed to be the Province is currently a bit of a nobody’s child. 

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Interesting flight of fancy piece in yesterday’s Sunday Times about how reunification wouldn’t be an entirely outlandish idea on Boris’s watch but equally how Dublin really doesn’t want it back. 

Basic premise was Churchill (Boris’s hero) tried to give Ulster away to Dublin a couple of times but couldn’t persuade them to take it.

It now costs £11bn to run for 1.5m people who have no strategic or economic benefit to the wider U.K.  and who are overwhelmingly anti-Brexit. No real upsides for Westminster in working hard to keep it. And the pesky Irish Sea border problem with the EU would also be solved because there actually would become a border in the Irish Sea. 

But then, from the Irish perspective, it’d mean each southern taxpayer having to fork out an extra £1700 a skull in taxes just to maintain the status quo in the Province when the south have far more pressing issues to deal with in their public finances. And then what would they do with all those unruly Protestants who would feel that they had been sold out and likely cause a fair old kerfuffle? 
 

Conclusion seemed to be the Province is currently a bit of a nobody’s child. 

That could have been written nearly every year since 1970, apart from maybe the EU bit. And raising Irish welfare state levels to match NI expectations would be a stretch too, though the NI health service seems to be falling apart to meet it, so maybe not that hard.

[invergowrie arab]

24 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Interesting flight of fancy piece in yesterday’s Sunday Times about how reunification wouldn’t be an entirely outlandish idea on Boris’s watch but equally how Dublin really doesn’t want it back. 

Basic premise was Churchill (Boris’s hero) tried to give Ulster away to Dublin a couple of times but couldn’t persuade them to take it.

It now costs £11bn to run for 1.5m people who have no strategic or economic benefit to the wider U.K.  and who are overwhelmingly anti-Brexit. No real upsides for Westminster in working hard to keep it. And the pesky Irish Sea border problem with the EU would also be solved because there actually would become a border in the Irish Sea. 

But then, from the Irish perspective, it’d mean each southern taxpayer having to fork out an extra £1700 a skull in taxes just to maintain the status quo in the Province when the south have far more pressing issues to deal with in their public finances. And then what would they do with all those unruly Protestants who would feel that they had been sold out and likely cause a fair old kerfuffle? 
 

Conclusion seemed to be the Province is currently a bit of a nobody’s child. 

No way !!!!

[SweeperDee]

[emoji599]POLL[emoji599]
Amárach Research/Extra.ie

If there is no government resulting in #GE2020B, which party would you vote for?
(+/- #GE2020)

SF 35% (+11.5)
FG 18% (-2.9)
FF 17% (-3.9)
GRN 9% (+1.9)
SD 5% (+1.1)
LAB 3% (-1.4)
SPBP 3% (+0.4)
IND/OTH 11% (-6.7)

16 Feb 2020
Sample: 1,040

— Next Irish General Election (@NextIrishGE) February 19, 2020

Tasty.

[Jacksgranda]

That would get them well over 60 seats, no?