2019 General Election Prediction Thread

[ICTChris]

What will be the big election night shocks

- Raab loses his seat, not sure if that's a shock though.

- Brexit Party get within a couple of hundred votes in at least one seat, maybe Barnsley.

- IDS and Redwood lose, that would be very funny

[falkirkzombie]

My Scottish seat prediction.

SNP 44
TORY 9
LIB 4
LAB 2

[vikingTON]

On 06/12/2019 at 09:21, ICTChris said:

• SNP stay pretty much the same, make small gains - maybe they take back half of the Labour seats and a couple of Tory seats in North East.  Potentially a few odd results though.  At least one unexpected seat will be lost for SNP.

I would not be surprised at all if Inverclyde fell back to the donkey in a red rosette brigade, who are once again putting up a candidate who has stood and lost narrowly in the last two elections by shrieking about cuts to the local hospital (both exaggerated and of course irrelevant to this GE). A stupid, wee, jumped up dauphin with an Oxbridge politics degree who clearly believes that he has earned a divine right to a spot on the political gravy train, it would be nauseating to see him slither in at last. 

I think people have forgotten just how monumental the swing was to the SNP in west-central Scottish seats in 2015 and there's likely to be further regression from that ridiculous showing soon, not least given these are usually lower turnout areas even in a spring election. Current good guy majority is <400. 

The new Gammons to get about 350 seats with a net loss for Labour and no overall change for the busted flush party IMO. SNP to get 40 seats which will be spun as a disastrous showing, not least because the party has managed expectations quite poorly throughout the campaign. Though nowhere near as bad as that fraud Swinson, who let's not forget spnt the first three weeks claiming that she'd be Prime Minister on Friday. Her getting emptied would almost make the next five years of Dickensian shithousery seem bearable, but I'd expect the strong Britnat coalition in ED to bail a floundering sister out. 

 

[John Lambies Doos]

I would not be surprised at all if Inverclyde fell back to the donkey in a red rosette brigade, who are once again putting up a candidate who has stood and lost narrowly in the last two elections by shrieking about cuts to the local hospital (both exaggerated and of course irrelevant to this GE). A stupid, wee, jumped up dauphin with an Oxbridge politics degree who clearly believes that he has earned a divine right to a spot on the political gravy train, it would be nauseating to see him slither in at last. 
I think people have forgotten just how monumental the swing was to the SNP in west-central Scottish seats in 2015 and there's likely to be further regression from that ridiculous showing soon, not least given these are usually lower turnout areas even in a spring election. Current good guy majority is The new Gammons to get about 350 seats with a net loss for Labour and no overall change for the busted flush party IMO. SNP to get 40 seats which will be spun as a disastrous showing, not least because the party has managed expectations quite poorly throughout the campaign. Though nowhere near as bad as that fraud Swinson, who let's not forget spnt the first three weeks claiming that she'd be Prime Minister on Friday. Her getting emptied would almost make the next five years of Dickensian shithousery seem bearable, but I'd expect the strong Britnat coalition in ED to bail a floundering sister out. 
 

SNP 1/10 on to win that. It's adjusted since you gov poll last night. Thankfully Labour are getting nowhere near that seat.

[Billy Jean King]

Another Shull alias ? How many are you juggling now inc BWA ?

Fingers crossed we get a Tory landslide. This looks promising: https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservatives-set-for-majority-with-359-seats-poll-11871956
 

[ICTJohnboy]

Come on, Scotland...

Remember 2015.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32635871

[ICTChris]

SNP 1/10 on to win that. It's adjusted since you gov poll last night. Thankfully Labour are getting nowhere near that seat.

SNP 1/6 on Bet365. [emoji848]

How did the MRP predict Scotland last time, did it foresee the seats the SNP lost? The seat spread for the SNP on the YouGov site was a low of 24 to a high of 55, which seems fairly wide ranging to say the least. Low of “sack the leader” high of “declare UDI”.

[John Lambies Doos]

SNP 1/6 on Bet365. [emoji848]

How did the MRP predict Scotland last time, did it foresee the seats the SNP lost? The seat spread for the SNP on the YouGov site was a low of 24 to a high of 55, which seems fairly wide ranging to say the least. Low of “sack the leader” high of “declare UDI”.

1/10 on Paddy power just checked

[eez-eh]

6 hours ago, ICTChris said:

What will be the big election night shocks

- Raab loses his seat, not sure if that's a shock though.

- Brexit Party get within a couple of hundred votes in at least one seat, maybe Barnsley.

- IDS and Redwood lose, that would be very funny

I’ve seen this mentioned a few times - am I missing something? I’d love to see him booted out but he has a majority of 24,000.

[alta-pete]

I reckon CON hold in Ochil and SP. The halfwit Nicolson knifed himself before he got started and he’s not been seen since.

That multilingual Euro stalwart SNP Alyn (sp?) Smith will drop his Brussels life like a hot potato for an easy win in Stirling. (Btw, does he get to keep his two salaries?)

And watch Blackford in Skye. (Ian, not the town, behave). Maybe more for the betting thread but I reckon a well organised close contest but a recovery for LIBDEM. They’re 6/1 currently Ffs. Value bet of them all!

[alta-pete]

I’ve seen this mentioned a few times - am I missing something? I’d love to see him booted out but he has a majority of 24,000.

I believe his seat was c.60% Remain. And he’s Foreign Secretary for Boris. Oops.

[Bishop Briggs]

47 minutes ago, eez-eh said:

I’ve seen this mentioned a few times - am I missing something? I’d love to see him booted out but he has a majority of 24,000.

The Lib Dems have been targeting this big Remain area for months. They are spending huge amounts on leaflets and bringing activists from around the country.

Raab and Redwood should cling on. IDS could be in trouble.

[Bishop Briggs]

18 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

I reckon CON hold in Ochil and SP. The halfwit Nicolson knifed himself before he got started and he’s not been seen since.

That multilingual Euro stalwart SNP Alyn (sp?) Smith will drop his Brussels life like a hot potato for an easy win in Stirling. (Btw, does he get to keep his two salaries?)

And watch Blackford in Skye. (Ian, not the town, behave). Maybe more for the betting thread but I reckon a well organised close contest but a recovery for LIBDEM. They’re 6/1 currently Ffs. Value bet of them all!

No. You can't be an Euro MP and Westminster MP. Smith would have to resign as a MEP. The SNP would simply. nominate his replacement.

[YassinMoutaouakil]

The official YassinMoutaouakil™ prediction.

Conservative 42%

Labour 37 %

Lib Dem - 12%

Brexit- 4%

Green - 2%

Hung parliament. Nobody wants anything to do with the Tories, but the Lib Dems bottle it and rule out joining a Lab/SNP coalition. Tory minority government for a few months but the inevitable problems with actually passing a bill result in a new election in summer. Possibly with a different Tory leader.

Edited December 12, 2019 by YassinMoutaouakil

[vikingTON]

23 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

SNP 1/10 on to win that. It's adjusted since you gov poll last night. Thankfully Labour are getting nowhere near that seat.

 

22 hours ago, ICTChris said:

 

SNP 1/6 on Bet365.

How did the MRP predict Scotland last time, did it foresee the seats the SNP lost? The seat spread for the SNP on the YouGov site was a low of 24 to a high of 55, which seems fairly wide ranging to say the least. Low of “sack the leader” high of “declare UDI”.

 

I wouldn't trust the MRP to get any single constituency right: rather, if it works at all then it'll be a case of their bad calls being evened out over 650-odd seats because they got the overall vote share right. I expect the Scottish Labour vote to completely collapse to busted flush levels of losing their deposit in seats where they clearly aren't competitive, but to hold up quite well in seats that they hold or are targeting: the first part of this thesis has already been demonstrated in recent local election results. The key point here is that they don't need to actually add votes to gain some seats back in the Central Belt: they just need their core vote to drop by a smaller amount than the SNP, so turnout is critical to the outcome. 

There's a quite plausible scenario that the SNP's dominant vote share will largely pile up in their safe seats while they get squeezed by the other parties in separate, run-off constituency battles, which is why I'm bearish on their total number of seats. It depends on whether anti-Nat or anti-Tory sentiment prevails among the non-SNP electorate: if it just splits between both then they should do quite well though. 

[LongTimeLurker]

On 08/12/2019 at 02:12, Kejan said:

...North Down - Lady Hermon ex DUP/was independent against Brexit- might be interesting ; might Alliance win that?

She is ex-UUP. That's one of the seats that Alliance are said to be in with a shout with but the difficulty for tactical voters in deciding whether the UUP or Alliance is the better non-DUP option means it is more likely to happen the next time around than this time.