2019 General Election Prediction Thread

[Kejan]

Apologies for another thread on the election ; but considering we have betting ; polls ; leaflets - how about what you feel/think will happen a week tonight?

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the result? Do you have an interesting prediction or live in area and heard/seen some movement as to an upset or something happening? Is there a chance that the Tories blow it ; could Dominic Raab, even Boris Johnson lose their seat?

Get your predictions in here!

 

[John Lambies Doos]

Apologies for another thread on the election ; but considering we have betting ; polls ; leaflets - how about what you feel/think will happen a week tonight?
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the result? Do you have an interesting prediction or live in area and heard/seen some movement as to an upset or something happening? Is there a chance that the Tories blow it ; could Dominic Raab, even Boris Johnson lose their seat?
Get your predictions in here!
 

Torys 331, Labour 202, Only show 46, Fib Dems 14, plaid 4, Greens 1. NI... Whatever.

Might not totally add up but you get my drift. Tory majority unfortunately m8

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Tories between 330 and 360 unfortunately, SNP 44-48. Swinson emptied.

I'm also predicting a shock victory for the Brexit Party in Linlithgow and Falkirk East. Campaign is going great guns and the candidate is really connecting with the locals.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

Tories between 330 and 360 unfortunately, SNP 44-48. Swinson emptied.
I'm also predicting a shock victory for the Brexit Party in Linlithgow and Falkirk East. Campaign is going great guns and the candidate is really connecting with the locals.

 

That Brexit chap is a shoe in....easy money

[Benjamin_Nevis]

20 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

37 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Tories between 330 and 360 unfortunately, SNP 44-48. Swinson emptied.
I'm also predicting a shock victory for the Brexit Party in Linlithgow and Falkirk East. Campaign is going great guns and the candidate is really connecting with the locals.

 

That Brexit chap is a shoe in....easy money

^^^ The_Kincardine found

[LincolnHearts]

The Brexit Party are 3/1 to win a seat.

Thank You.

 

[Granny Danger]

5 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Tories between 330 and 360 unfortunately, SNP 44-48. Swinson emptied.

Sadly I agree with the first part.  There will be a Tory majority and few/none ‘one-nation’ Conservative MPs to curb Johnson’s worst excesses.

Friday the 13th right enough.

[Kyle]

59 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Because we're in hell I might as well make a really pessimistic prediction.

 

Tories majority of 40 or so.

Corbyn steps down, someone else unacceptable to neoliberals in PLP and media wins and we find out it wasn't just Corbyn that was the problem, it was social democracy.

SNP actually lose a few seats, prompting calls for Sturgeon to step down which are ignored while hospitals, education and so on continue generating bad headlines which push SNP+Greens into minority government at next HR elections. Joanna Cherry who lost her WM seat tries to run for Holyrood as the Bath party leader but falls out with Stuart Campbell over whether Frazzles are better than Scampi Fries or whatever and it goes horribly wrong. Indyref off the table for a decade+.

 

 

I can hope I'm wrong but it at least means I won't be disappointed.

 

 

 

 

Hello darkness my old friend indeed.

I think the SNP will at the very least retain what they have in terms of seat numbers and probably get over 40. I said last week that 50 is a possibility given just how marginal so many of the seats are and I stand by that. 44% of the popular vote is pretty decent, especially after all the devolved issues this week.

I think when push comes to shove, a lot of the traditional labour voters in the North/midlands will switch back to labour late. Not saying it will be enough to stop a Tory majority but, combining that with tactical voting, I don't think the majority will be as big as we are fearing.

[ICTChris]

You'd have to be an absolute idiot to make political predictions these days.

Here are my predictions then

• Conservative majority but less than predicted - I'll say around 25 seats.  A couple of high profile Tories lose their seats.
• Labour lose some votes but few seats to the Lib Dems.  Their overall vote dips due to fewer voters who went with Labour in 2017 turning out.  Corbyn stays on.
• Lib Dems do a bit better than expected but still can't breakthrough 20 seats.  Swinson keeps her seat by less than 100 votes.
• SNP stay pretty much the same, make small gains - maybe they take back half of the Labour seats and a couple of Tory seats in North East.  Potentially a few odd results though.  At least one unexpected seat will be lost for SNP.

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

A slim Tory majority of single figures.

[Sir Tarmo Kink]

Tories between 330 and 360 unfortunately, SNP 44-48. Swinson emptied.
I'm also predicting a shock victory for the Brexit Party in Linlithgow and Falkirk East. Campaign is going great guns and the candidate is really connecting with the locals.

 

Bozza is a complete moron. He also said climate change was a myth.

Linlithgow & East Falkirk will probably be won by the hilariously incompetent Martyn Day due to strong SNP influence in the area. It’s been a massive change in the area with the Tories gaining massively in recent years, going from comfortably the 4th party in the area to a likely comfortable 2nd. Labour have dropped considerably having once dominated the area, to now slipping into 3rd. The LibDems and other smaller parties have typically done poorly around these parts so shouldn’t take too many votes off the big 3.

As for overall predictions. A comfortable Tory majority and several headsgones from the Yella’ Brigade over on the GE19 thread.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Hope it snows and every old Tory voter slips on ice, breaks a hip, cant afford to pay their Trumpcare bill and are thrown on the newly built incinerator in Scunthorpe. 

[BawWatchin]

1 minute ago, oaksoft said:

Tory majority of around 50 to 80.

Labour vote to collapse to under 200 seats.

SNP to get 40-43.

Lib Dems under 20 seats

Brexit party to get at least 3 seats and possibly one in Scotland.

Greens to get nothing.

Pretty much writes the next independence manifesto.

[ICTChris]

17 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Tory majority of around 50 to 80.

Labour vote to collapse to under 200 seats.

SNP to get 40-43.

Lib Dems under 20 seats

Brexit party to get at least 3 seats and possibly one in Scotland.

Greens to get nothing.

Which Scottish seat do you think the Brexit Party could win?

[welshbairn]

15 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Which Scottish seat do you think the Brexit Party could win?

Latest poll has Brexit under 1% in Scotland.

[dorlomin]

6 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Brexit party to get at least 3 seats and possibly one in Scotland.

Greens to get nothing.

Greens are very likely to retain Brighton Pavilion, they have an electoral alliance and with the Lib Dems and will likely see some Labour votes going Carolines way on top of a 15000 majority. More over the Tory vote will be relatively heavily biased remain. 

They have an outside shot at one seat in Bristol but its pretty outside. 

The Brexit Party are nowhere anywhere. 

[Ralstonite]

Fingers crossed we get a Tory landslide. This looks promising: https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservatives-set-for-majority-with-359-seats-poll-11871956

 

[LongTimeLurker]

On 06/12/2019 at 11:21, ICTChris said:

 

• SNP stay pretty much the same, make small gains - maybe they take back half of the Labour seats and a couple of Tory seats in North East.  Potentially a few odd results though.  At least one unexpected seat will be lost for SNP.

Think Ian Blackford's seat is the one to watch for a potential shock and NE Fife will definitely change hands, because the LibDems are good at targeting seats and encouraging tactical voting. Think Boris will get a majority of around 30 and the SNP will win most seats lost last time back from Labour and several of the more marginal ones from the Tories to be around 45. Hope Jo Swinson gets the full Sheena Easton treatment from the voters of East Dunbartonshire for her accent change.

[tongue_tied_danny]

On 05/12/2019 at 23:17, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

Tories between 330 and 360 unfortunately, SNP 44-48. Swinson emptied.

I'm also predicting a shock victory for the Brexit Party in Linlithgow and Falkirk East. Campaign is going great guns and the candidate is really connecting with the locals.

 

[Kejan]

Tories win a small majority of 10-20. They'll get over the line, but there will be some scelpings and a few big names/veterans will go e.g Duncan Smith ; Redwood.

Labour will get over 212 MPs although not quite sure if it will be much more than that. Hearing a lot of Labour heartlands in north England etc wanting Brexit over with it etc. Many will vote for the Brexit Party, but I still think they'll keep a good chunk of their seats there.

Lib Dems might take a few scelps e.g Raab or someone in the plush People's Vote areas ; but will flatter to deceive overall. End up with about 22 MPs  at the very most and a vote share of 12% Unfortunately I think Swinson will keep her seat ; it might be ticht, but she'll squeak in by a 2-3% win. Somehow they'll paint this up as vote up/gaining seats, but we'll all be able to see behind the propaganda they will be disappointed.

Scotland

SNP 39% - I think they'll win back 2/3 of the North East seats they lost in 2017 but the Tories will hang on to a fair bit of them. I don't think they'll win back all those Labour seats either. They will most likely gain seats but it might just be 40-43. Some of those NE seats will be very, very close but I fear the Tories will just edge them. The SNP also have wafer-thin majorities in about 1/3 of seats in Scotland ; so there will be surprises both gaining and losing seats. Be lovely if they could get Mundell's seat, but no doubt he'll end up with an increased majority.

 Tories 26% - they'll lose 3 seats at the most. The Brexit Party shiting it and not standing in Tory seats will probably save 70% of the Tories in Scotland. Whilst Brexit Party voters can easily vote Tory ; the pro-EU pro-UK Liberal/Labour voters are a harder sell for the SNP. The SNP will be very close in many seats, and on a good day, they'll hopefully take those Tory seats but fear the Tories will do relatively 'well' in Scotland. They'll drop a percentage or two at the most from 2017, and they'll be beaming Murdo Fraser, Ruth Davidson, Jackson Carlaw pusses on TVs on election night.

Labour 19% - they might do better than expected and get 3-5 of their current seats. I think they might end up getting votes in areas they haven't a scoob of winning in. They'll poll terribly (for Scotland) and it'll be their worst ever election night in Scotland ; but strangely they may end up with more MPs than 2015 where they received 24% of the vote and 1 MP. They'll get about 17-21% of the vote.

Lib Dems - might pick up a surprise seat somewhere. NE Fife, I'm not 100% convinced about, it'll most likely go Lib Dem but Gethins seems to have quite wide support with non-SNP types ; but then again it just takes 1000 Tory gobshites who hate the SNP more than the Lib Dems for him to be gone. They'll get about 12% of the vote.

Greens - 2.5% of the vote. And no doubt, they'll be blamed for standing in some seat that the Tories won by 300 votes compared to the Greens 545 etc.

Brexit - I might try and find a bookie, but if there's a bookie offering under 2% in Scotland. An absolute shambles from the start in this campaign. From standing in every constituency to 'only these ones' to 4 of their MEPs quiting to vote Conservative to Farage going through the motions. All their potential support has gone to the Tories anyway, I reckon they'll poll about 1.3%

Wales

Labour probably the biggest party by about 4-5% but the Tories will take some previous Labour strongholds. Plaid will be static, but may keep their 4 MPs (hope so I've got Ceredigon on as a bet) Brexit Party will get about 8% of the vote.

NI

There's pacts in about 10 seats there, so it may well be the most exciting area for results. Some seats only have 3 candidates. I expect the DUP to lose at least 2 seats, but it might be more. And on the other side, the UUP are the only unionist candidate in majority nationalist Fermanagh. SDLP should win back Derry from SF. North Down - Lady Hermon ex DUP/was independent against Brexit- might be interesting ; might Alliance win that?

Hopefully I'm way out and Tories shite their majority losing tons of arseholes like Raab, Patel, IDS, Redwood ; the SNP wIn 45 plus seats ; and Johnson even loses his seat!

Soon see I suppose.