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Is Aberdeen West/Kincardine worth an SNP punt? It's regarded as a safe Tory seat and if they keep only a few seats, a big chance this will be kept ; but it was Lib Dem for decades (or most of the area was) I have no idea about the lay of the land at present and its a huge constituency too.

Lib Dem from 1997 - 2015 (SNP) now Tory. Or was it only Lib Dem due to a good local MP?

Tories are still 1/3 on, and if I woke up and see the Tories kept only 4 seats in Scotland I'd guess the Borders ones plus this ; but I'm sure it was 1/5 at the start of the campaign, so you never know.

There's a lot of spin on Twitter, but I read or heard (yes, what a great informative post filled with hearsay/and shite I cannae mind) that the Tories are probably ahead, it's a lot tighter than they were expecting and the sitting MP thought it was 50/50!

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33 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

Yep, there could be less votes in terms of actual numbers but a higher turnout. The 2017 register included more people who have moved abroad or died.

70.02% will do. 😀

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2 hours ago, Kejan said:

Is Aberdeen West/Kincardine worth an SNP punt? It's regarded as a safe Tory seat and if they keep only a few seats, a big chance this will be kept ; but it was Lib Dem for decades (or most of the area was) I have no idea about the lay of the land at present and its a huge constituency too.

Lib Dem from 1997 - 2015 (SNP) now Tory. Or was it only Lib Dem due to a good local MP?

Tories are still 1/3 on, and if I woke up and see the Tories kept only 4 seats in Scotland I'd guess the Borders ones plus this ; but I'm sure it was 1/5 at the start of the campaign, so you never know.

There's a lot of spin on Twitter, but I read or heard (yes, what a great informative post filled with hearsay/and shite I cannae mind) that the Tories are probably ahead, it's a lot tighter than they were expecting and the sitting MP thought it was 50/50!

The Lib Dem was Robert Smith, fairly sure he had ancestors in the seat who were Tories, thus making him palatable. 2015 was purely the post-indyref SNP effect, judging by the size of Bowie's 2017 majority when the Tories nicked it back.

WAK should be about as nailed on a Tory seat as you get given its make up, and betting against them would be fairly dicey, but it's not entirely impossible if enough of them can't bear to vote for Boris.....

Edited by Scorge

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Does anyone know of any constituency polling, or other reasons, for Labour being at 9/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith?

Labour held the seat for years, lost by 5,000 in the 2015 SNP wipeout and then lost by 1,500 last time. The interesting part for me is that the Tories were suggested as the Unionist tactical vote last time (probably as a total overreaction to Council elections) and increased their vote share by 11%to 15k; pretty much handing the seat to the SNP.

It seems like there is an appetite for tactical voting in this seat, they just made an arse of it last time.

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14 minutes ago, Alan Stubbs said:

Does anyone know of any constituency polling, or other reasons, for Labour being at 9/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith?

Labour held the seat for years, lost by 5,000 in the 2015 SNP wipeout and then lost by 1,500 last time. The interesting part for me is that the Tories were suggested as the Unionist tactical vote last time (probably as a total overreaction to Council elections) and increased their vote share by 11%to 15k; pretty much handing the seat to the SNP.

It seems like there is an appetite for tactical voting in this seat, they just made an arse of it last time.

The 9/1 price does look a bit on the high side, probably due to the fact SNP have dominated elections in Leith recently and the Tories gained in the more affluent areas in the constituency. For Labour to win here they'll need votes from Tories in the New Town, Stockbridge, Dean Village etc. Will they hold their noses and vote for a Corbyn candidate, when they may feel they have a chance of winning the seat themselves ? The Brexit Party are standing here too, which probably helps the SNP.

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12 hours ago, Scorge said:

The Lib Dem was Robert Smith, fairly sure he had ancestors in the seat who were Tories, thus making him palatable. 2015 was purely the post-indyref SNP effect, judging by the size of Bowie's 2017 majority when the Tories nicked it back.

WAK should be about as nailed on a Tory seat as you get given its make up, and betting against them would be fairly dicey, but it's not entirely impossible if enough of them can't bear to vote for Boris.....

Seriously it's very very close, I think SNP are still behind from what I'm seeing, but not by much. The most canvassed (by the SNP) seat in the country. 

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52 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

The 9/1 price does look a bit on the high side, probably due to the fact SNP have dominated elections in Leith recently and the Tories gained in the more affluent areas in the constituency. For Labour to win here they'll need votes from Tories in the New Town, Stockbridge, Dean Village etc. Will they hold their noses and vote for a Corbyn candidate, when they may feel they have a chance of winning the seat themselves ? The Brexit Party are standing here too, which probably helps the SNP.

This is a far from scientific analysis based on growing up around there but I feel like those affluent areas also contain a lot of well-off, often English, liberals.  The sort of folk who made it a Lib Dem/Labour marginal back in the day. On the other hand, changes to the rest of the constituency maybe favours the SNP.  There seems to have been an influx of young professionals moving into Leith proper and the northside of the constituency is rammed with first-time buyer type new builds.

Anyway, chances are they'll get pumped but I just thought 9/1 was a bit high for Labour given the recent history of the seat.  I'll make chuck a fiver at it. Unlike 2017, I've had flyers from them this time so they must actually be trying to compete. c***s.

Edited by Alan Stubbs

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Feeling smug, got Lesley Laird @ 11/4 earlier in week, now got on Neale Hanvey @ 6/4

Profit locked in. TY Paddy  😎

 

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West Fermanagh and South Tyrone

In 2010 Sinn Fèin won it by four votes (Makes it look like a safe seat compared to NE Fife). In 2015, the UUP (after a pact with DUP) won it back by around 500 votes. 2017 SF won it back with just under 1000 votes.

UUP - whilst in the doldrums as a party - are the only unionist candidate in the constituency. Three years without an Northern Irish government ;  depends on how well SF get their vote out.

UUP at 5/2 in what should be a tight fight looks a good outside bet. I think the SF may well hold the seat, but if there are enough former SLDP went SF back to SDLP voters or stay at home Shinners and only one unionist candidate.

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Northern Ireland in general has quite a few tight seats.

Belfast North

Nigel Dodds' seat, he has a majority of around 2k over SF. This time around now SDLP (got 2k votes in 2017) ; no Greens (500 votes). Then again the Norn Irish Tories took 400 odd votes in 2017 so they might go for the DUP.

Also there is no love lost between SF and SDLP. Some might even protest vote for the Alliance Party rather than SF.

There are 3 candidates : DUP ; Sinn FèIn ; Alliance. 

I'm tempted to back SF, but I don't know enough about demographics, how it's looking.

Anyhoos odds are DUP 5/6 ; SF 5/6 ; Alliance 67/1

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The question in North Belfast is if people who voted SDLP and Greens last time when it was already very much a straight tribal headcount between the DUP and SF in terms of who could win are really more likely to vote SF rather than Alliance this time around. That's what many people appear to think still gives Dodds a slight edge. Other ones to watch that I don't think have been mentioned by Jacksgranda are South Down as a possible pick up for the SDLP if enough Unionist and Alliance voters decide to vote tactically (maybe the SDLP will go back to being the South Down and Londonderry Party again given a lot of pundits seem to think Foyle is going their way as well), and South Antrim as a possible UUP pickup from the DUP where Remain leaning Unionists don't need to worry about SF, which is not the case for example in Upper Bann, although some people appear to think the DUP might be in trouble there as well.

Edited by LongTimeLurker

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The question in North Belfast is if people who voted SDLP and Greens last time when it was already very much a straight tribal headcount between the DUP and SF in terms of who could win are really more likely to vote SF rather than Alliance this time around. That's what many people appear to think still gives Dodds a slight edge. Other ones to watch that I don't think have been mentioned by Jacksgranda are South Down as a possible pick up for the SDLP if enough Unionist and Alliance voters decide to vote tactically (maybe the SDLP will go back to being the South Down and Londonderry Party again given a lot of pundits seem to think Foyle is going their way as well), and South Antrim as a possible UUP pickup from the DUP where Remain leaning Unionists don't need to worry about SF, which is not the case for example in Upper Bann, although some people appear to think the DUP might be in trouble there as well.

What about Belfast East? 

No SF, SDLP or Greens and Naomi Long of the Alliance (who was elected there in 2010) returning to fight the seat.

 

 

Belfast South also likely to go to the SDLP's Claire Hanna so I am told.

 

Foyle is going to be interesting too - will voters go for a pro-Remainer taking their seat (SDLP) or one that doesn't (SF).

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That one's been mentioned by Jacksgranda. The DUP were at 55.8% last time so Alliance will have to do very well to win that in terms of attracting moderate Unionist votes. Definitely not impossible as opinion polls suggest a swing in their direction but still a long shot is my understanding of what's being said about that one. In North Down, the DUP are helped by having neither Alliance or UUP as the clear alternative destination for Sylvia Hermon's votes. It's not natural DUP territory as a lot of it is very posh so that's where the Alliance party probably has its best shot at carving out a safe seat down the road.

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3 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

That one's been mentioned by Jacksgranda. The DUP were at 55.8% last time so Alliance will have to do very well to win that in terms of attracting moderate Unionist votes. Definitely not impossible as opinion polls suggest a swing in their direction but still a long shot is my understanding of what's being said about that one. In North Down, the DUP are helped by having neither Alliance or UUP as the clear alternative destination for Sylvia Hermon's votes. It's not natural DUP territory as a lot of it is very posh so that's where the Alliance party probably has its best shot at carving out a safe seat down the road.

Interesting.

I subscribe to Talkback as a podcast - stumbled upon it and pick/choose episodes - but heard one about the North Belfast. There are only three candidates SF, DUP, Alliance. One of the guests was an ex-SDLP MLA Alban McGuinness who sounded very hesitant to say he would vote SF/ he's voting for the remain candidate ; and if I had to guess what he would do with his vote he would vote Alliance or spoil it (going by the way he spoke on the program). 

I did the political tour last year in Belfast (you start at Falls Rd and end up down the Shankhill) and the nationalist tour guide said SF and SDLP really dislike each other and he called them Stoop Down Low Party. I was surprised, TBH and how much it sounded they disliked each other! So I'm not sure going on from that, if every SDLP will transfer over to SF.

Foyle will be very interesting as well. Is Eastwood liked? Maybe not so much a case of being liked, and rather needs must and folk wanting an MP to go and vote in Westminster? I know two folk from there (aye, I know, a pinch of salt required) they are soft n nationalists/even describe themselves as Northern Irish - think one voted SF in 2017 and other for Eamonn McCann's party? - both are voting SDLP. SDLP are 4/11 to win the seat.

I'm havering on a fair bit now, but UUP good value in West Tyrone/Fermanagh? Only Unionist candidate albeit in a big nationalist area! Still, last few elections have had 4 ; 300 odd and 1000 votes in it! UUP at 5/1 looks a good wee stake bet.

 

 

 

 

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Hastings and Rye looks getting trickier for the Tory holding her very tight marginal after being slaughtered in the press for saying that the disabled should get paid less because they don't understand money. That's how it's getting reported anyway. 5/2 on Labour who were 300 behind in 2017.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/06/tory-candidate-says-disabled-people-paid-less-dont-understand-money-11280594/

 

 

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13 hours ago, Kejan said:

...I'm havering on a fair bit now, but UUP good value in West Tyrone/Fermanagh? Only Unionist candidate albeit in a big nationalist area! Still, last few elections have had 4 ; 300 odd and 1000 votes in it! UUP at 5/1 looks a good wee stake bet.

Have seen it claimed that Unionists outpolled SF and the SDLP in F&ST at the latest council elections. It's weird how the slow demographic shift over the decades never seems to stop this one constituency from being a cliffhanger in the same way it was in the Hunger Strike era, because there are other rural NI constituencies where Unionism used to be competitive electorally but has now fallen away to around a third of the vote at best. When people suggest that the SF machine will get the job done it's probably referring to which party does the best job at using proxy and postal votes to maximise their turnout now that voter impersonation isn't as easy as it used to be in that part of the world.

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2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Hastings and Rye looks getting trickier for the Tory holding her very tight marginal after being slaughtered in the press for saying that the disabled should get paid less because they don't understand money. That's how it's getting reported anyway. 5/2 on Labour who were 300 behind in 2017.

https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/06/tory-candidate-says-disabled-people-paid-less-dont-understand-money-11280594/

 

 

 

What I don't understand about this one is why the odds are so generous for Labour. I'm guessing that it was a leave voting area but surely other things would come into it. 5/2 seems very tempting.

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35 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

What I don't understand about this one is why the odds are so generous for Labour. I'm guessing that it was a leave voting area but surely other things would come into it. 5/2 seems very tempting.

56% Leave. There seems to have been some polling shenanigans going on which might have skewed the odds, but also the bookies seem to be a bit slow at reacting to the news, like that SNP guy getting kicked out of the party. On the other hand with no Brexit candidate standing the Tory could have a clear run against a split Remain/Referendum vote, and the Leavers might not care what she said. I've plonked on Labour anyway.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-50409441

Edited by welshbairn

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Today's Treasury leak could sway a few minds in Northern Ireland. Effects of Johnson's deal.

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