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tbsouth

General Election betting

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I probably typed too fast but meant Lab to get over 35% with bet 365 was 11/2 and put that on.


Wish I’d spotted that. Looks like it’s gonna fall the same way it did in 2017.

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Just checked the odds in the Tory-held seats:

Aberdeen South - SNP 5/6 Evens Con
Angus - 8/11 SNP 13/10 Con
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - 8/11 SNP 6/4 Con
Banff & Buchan 4/5 Con 5/4 SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - 1/4 Con 4/1 SNP
Dumfries & Galloway - 4/6 Con 13/8 SNP
Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - 1/4 Con 9/2 SNP
East Renfrewshire - 17/20 Con 10/11 SNP
Gordon - 10/11 Con Evens SNP
Moray - 17/20 Con Evens SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire - 8/11 SNP 6/5 Con
Stirling - 4/9 SNP 11/4 Con
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 4/9 Con 9/4 SNP

Only two really safe Tory seats - the rest are probably too close to call.

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12 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Just checked the odds in the Tory-held seats:

Aberdeen South - SNP 5/6 Evens Con
Angus - 8/11 SNP 13/10 Con
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock - 8/11 SNP 6/4 Con
Banff & Buchan 4/5 Con 5/4 SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk - 1/4 Con 4/1 SNP
Dumfries & Galloway - 4/6 Con 13/8 SNP
Dumfrieshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale - 1/4 Con 9/2 SNP
East Renfrewshire - 17/20 Con 10/11 SNP
Gordon - 10/11 Con Evens SNP
Moray - 17/20 Con Evens SNP
Ochil & South Perthshire - 8/11 SNP 6/5 Con
Stirling - 4/9 SNP 11/4 Con
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 4/9 Con 9/4 SNP

Only two really safe Tory seats - the rest are probably too close to call.

Most of those will be settled by Labour-Lib Dem voters....which way will they go?

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11 minutes ago, tbsouth said:

Most of those will be settled by Labour-Lib Dem voters....which way will they go

Meanings nothing but I know of 3 who didn't vote SNP in 2017, but now are/did in Angus. 

Two were apathetic voters returning and the other voted Labour in 2017.

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17 minutes ago, tbsouth said:

Most of those will be settled by Labour-Lib Dem voters....which way will they go?

If I was a Labour remainy Unionist my priority would be stopping a Tory Brexit and Government for this election, indy can be dealt with later. And knowing that the SNP would likely cooperate with a Labour minority. The lib dems are weird, no idea how their minds work.

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12 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Just checked the odds in the Tory-held seats:


West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 4/9 Con 9/4 SNP

 

I've backed all tories to lose for an even return, plus all SNP seats where odds are available at 1/5 or better. No point backing the 1/20 shots.

I've been out on the doors in WAK, it's very very close, Bowie still ahead I'd say, but it's nowhere near these odds, great value.

 

Also whacked on Lesley Laird to the max when it was announced the SNP were pulling support for our guy, that could be a mistake but at 3/1 for the sitting MP it was too much value to miss. 

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5 hours ago, welshbairn said:

If I was a Labour remainy Unionist my priority would be stopping a Tory Brexit and Government for this election, indy can be dealt with later. And knowing that the SNP would likely cooperate with a Labour minority. The lib dems are weird, no idea how their minds work.

All the Unionist i know are voting Tory, get Brexit done and stop Indy, the only things on their minds....a bit like every Scots Tory really.

For me Hair is the best value....cannot believe i am saying those words.

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39 minutes ago, tbsouth said:

All the Unionist i know are voting Tory, get Brexit done and stop Indy, the only things on their minds....a bit like every Scots Tory really.

For me Hair is the best value....cannot believe i am saying those words.

 

Get Brexit done and stop Indy?

God help us all  -  Jeezus Fucking Christ.

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Different kind of betting but just stocked up on Euros for holiday money. Got just under 1.17 to the pound, the pundits don't think it will go much above 1.18 with a Tory win counted in. If a hung parliament becomes more likely it will definitely fall. The doubtful thing is political turbulence in Germany and its effect on the Euro, but you can't account for everything. A few weeks ago it was 1.08 and I don't think it can go much higher, but it can certainly go a lot lower.  

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9 minutes ago, tbsouth said:

Turnout over 70.01 on at 14/5 now 2/1..

We're all going to be rich, RICH I tell you!!! maybe...

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Just now, welshbairn said:

We're all going to be rich, RICH I tell you!!! maybe...

Rich for a day maybe....😀

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Get Brexit done and stop Indy?
God help us all  -  Jeezus Fucking Christ.

This is the betting thread A9, not the aspirational thread. Just lay back and think of the money...

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I hear Jo Swinson is considering resigning BEFORE THE ELECTION after what senior Lib Dem sources are saying has been ‘a worse campaign than Theresa May’s in 2017’ One senior source said: ‘with this government and opposition we should be getting over a hundred seats’

 

SNP still 9/4.....must be worth a punt??

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15 hours ago, tbsouth said:

I hear Jo Swinson is considering resigning BEFORE THE ELECTION after what senior Lib Dem sources are saying has been ‘a worse campaign than Theresa May’s in 2017’ One senior source said: ‘with this government and opposition we should be getting over a hundred seats’

 

SNP still 9/4.....must be worth a punt??

Aye, apparently Labour activists in the seat actively promoting the SNP to have her gone. 

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That came from a trolling/parody account. Labour are still campaigning in this seat - I got one of their leaflets through the door a couple of days ago.

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On 02/12/2019 at 23:24, tbsouth said:

Turnout over 70.01 on at 14/5 now 2/1..

I don't see it.

The turnout will be less than 2017. There is definitely less buzz about this election. The three terror attacks focussed a lot of attention on the campaigns then, this just feels like a normal December with people chatting about nights out and shopping.

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5 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Have seen it argued that turnout will be higher this time because the electoral register is more up to date.

 

Yep, there could be less votes in terms of actual numbers but a higher turnout. The 2017 register included more people who have moved abroad or died.

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