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General Election betting


tbsouth

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12 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Just checked the odds in the Tory-held seats:


West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 4/9 Con 9/4 SNP

 

I've backed all tories to lose for an even return, plus all SNP seats where odds are available at 1/5 or better. No point backing the 1/20 shots.

I've been out on the doors in WAK, it's very very close, Bowie still ahead I'd say, but it's nowhere near these odds, great value.

 

Also whacked on Lesley Laird to the max when it was announced the SNP were pulling support for our guy, that could be a mistake but at 3/1 for the sitting MP it was too much value to miss. 

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5 hours ago, welshbairn said:

If I was a Labour remainy Unionist my priority would be stopping a Tory Brexit and Government for this election, indy can be dealt with later. And knowing that the SNP would likely cooperate with a Labour minority. The lib dems are weird, no idea how their minds work.

All the Unionist i know are voting Tory, get Brexit done and stop Indy, the only things on their minds....a bit like every Scots Tory really.

For me Hair is the best value....cannot believe i am saying those words.

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39 minutes ago, tbsouth said:

All the Unionist i know are voting Tory, get Brexit done and stop Indy, the only things on their minds....a bit like every Scots Tory really.

For me Hair is the best value....cannot believe i am saying those words.

 

Get Brexit done and stop Indy?

God help us all  -  Jeezus Fucking Christ.

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Different kind of betting but just stocked up on Euros for holiday money. Got just under 1.17 to the pound, the pundits don't think it will go much above 1.18 with a Tory win counted in. If a hung parliament becomes more likely it will definitely fall. The doubtful thing is political turbulence in Germany and its effect on the Euro, but you can't account for everything. A few weeks ago it was 1.08 and I don't think it can go much higher, but it can certainly go a lot lower.  

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I hear Jo Swinson is considering resigning BEFORE THE ELECTION after what senior Lib Dem sources are saying has been ‘a worse campaign than Theresa May’s in 2017’ One senior source said: ‘with this government and opposition we should be getting over a hundred seats’

 

SNP still 9/4.....must be worth a punt??

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15 hours ago, tbsouth said:

I hear Jo Swinson is considering resigning BEFORE THE ELECTION after what senior Lib Dem sources are saying has been ‘a worse campaign than Theresa May’s in 2017’ One senior source said: ‘with this government and opposition we should be getting over a hundred seats’

 

SNP still 9/4.....must be worth a punt??

Aye, apparently Labour activists in the seat actively promoting the SNP to have her gone. 

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On 02/12/2019 at 23:24, tbsouth said:

Turnout over 70.01 on at 14/5 now 2/1..

I don't see it.

The turnout will be less than 2017. There is definitely less buzz about this election. The three terror attacks focussed a lot of attention on the campaigns then, this just feels like a normal December with people chatting about nights out and shopping.

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5 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Have seen it argued that turnout will be higher this time because the electoral register is more up to date.

 

Yep, there could be less votes in terms of actual numbers but a higher turnout. The 2017 register included more people who have moved abroad or died.

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Is Aberdeen West/Kincardine worth an SNP punt? It's regarded as a safe Tory seat and if they keep only a few seats, a big chance this will be kept ; but it was Lib Dem for decades (or most of the area was) I have no idea about the lay of the land at present and its a huge constituency too.

Lib Dem from 1997 - 2015 (SNP) now Tory. Or was it only Lib Dem due to a good local MP?

Tories are still 1/3 on, and if I woke up and see the Tories kept only 4 seats in Scotland I'd guess the Borders ones plus this ; but I'm sure it was 1/5 at the start of the campaign, so you never know.

There's a lot of spin on Twitter, but I read or heard (yes, what a great informative post filled with hearsay/and shite I cannae mind) that the Tories are probably ahead, it's a lot tighter than they were expecting and the sitting MP thought it was 50/50!

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2 hours ago, Kejan said:

Is Aberdeen West/Kincardine worth an SNP punt? It's regarded as a safe Tory seat and if they keep only a few seats, a big chance this will be kept ; but it was Lib Dem for decades (or most of the area was) I have no idea about the lay of the land at present and its a huge constituency too.

Lib Dem from 1997 - 2015 (SNP) now Tory. Or was it only Lib Dem due to a good local MP?

Tories are still 1/3 on, and if I woke up and see the Tories kept only 4 seats in Scotland I'd guess the Borders ones plus this ; but I'm sure it was 1/5 at the start of the campaign, so you never know.

There's a lot of spin on Twitter, but I read or heard (yes, what a great informative post filled with hearsay/and shite I cannae mind) that the Tories are probably ahead, it's a lot tighter than they were expecting and the sitting MP thought it was 50/50!

The Lib Dem was Robert Smith, fairly sure he had ancestors in the seat who were Tories, thus making him palatable. 2015 was purely the post-indyref SNP effect, judging by the size of Bowie's 2017 majority when the Tories nicked it back.

WAK should be about as nailed on a Tory seat as you get given its make up, and betting against them would be fairly dicey, but it's not entirely impossible if enough of them can't bear to vote for Boris.....

Edited by Scorge
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Does anyone know of any constituency polling, or other reasons, for Labour being at 9/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith?

Labour held the seat for years, lost by 5,000 in the 2015 SNP wipeout and then lost by 1,500 last time. The interesting part for me is that the Tories were suggested as the Unionist tactical vote last time (probably as a total overreaction to Council elections) and increased their vote share by 11%to 15k; pretty much handing the seat to the SNP.

It seems like there is an appetite for tactical voting in this seat, they just made an arse of it last time.

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14 minutes ago, Alan Stubbs said:

Does anyone know of any constituency polling, or other reasons, for Labour being at 9/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith?

Labour held the seat for years, lost by 5,000 in the 2015 SNP wipeout and then lost by 1,500 last time. The interesting part for me is that the Tories were suggested as the Unionist tactical vote last time (probably as a total overreaction to Council elections) and increased their vote share by 11%to 15k; pretty much handing the seat to the SNP.

It seems like there is an appetite for tactical voting in this seat, they just made an arse of it last time.

The 9/1 price does look a bit on the high side, probably due to the fact SNP have dominated elections in Leith recently and the Tories gained in the more affluent areas in the constituency. For Labour to win here they'll need votes from Tories in the New Town, Stockbridge, Dean Village etc. Will they hold their noses and vote for a Corbyn candidate, when they may feel they have a chance of winning the seat themselves ? The Brexit Party are standing here too, which probably helps the SNP.

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12 hours ago, Scorge said:

The Lib Dem was Robert Smith, fairly sure he had ancestors in the seat who were Tories, thus making him palatable. 2015 was purely the post-indyref SNP effect, judging by the size of Bowie's 2017 majority when the Tories nicked it back.

WAK should be about as nailed on a Tory seat as you get given its make up, and betting against them would be fairly dicey, but it's not entirely impossible if enough of them can't bear to vote for Boris.....

Seriously it's very very close, I think SNP are still behind from what I'm seeing, but not by much. The most canvassed (by the SNP) seat in the country. 

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