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General Election betting

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Best bets so far

Turnout - over 70.01%  @11/4 Bet365

East Dunbartonshire (Swinson) - SNP @11/4 Bet365

Angus - Conservative @5/4 Sky Bet

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I've got about 18 or so constituencies on so far and will probably do a few more. Some I think will happen, others more a small outside punt e.g Took the Tories at 4/1 Angus at the start ; SNP Caithness 3/1 ; Lib Dems 9/1 in JRM seat (now at 5/1) I doubt it will happen,can dream though.

Did these at the start of it all so might have changed :

Lib Dems under 15% of the vote 5/2

Plaid Cymru under 4.5 seats evens

I'm really unsure about Labour regarding seats over/under or guess at how many seats they might get. They've got some huge majorities - we know how they can go like in 2015 - but I can't quite gauge how bad or even steady their vote is.

I'll need to look in to a few more constituencies but some  independent MPs seats do look interesting . Mike Gapes voted in as a Labour candidate and has been an MP for 27 years  and has a majority of 32k. Then again I have no idea if he was the stereotypical red rosette MP/how did nothing for the area or if he's well respected, but he's 4/1

Edited by Kejan

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Labour to keep Glasgow North East is 5/2. Majority of 242 won with a depressed turnout but SNP have stood the same candidate that lost in 2017 and Paul Sweeney has some name recognition and has been doing shenanigans to keep his name floating about the constituency.

SNP to take Swinson’s seat was 4/1 in Ladbrokes. Would have to check if it’s the same but I’m tempted to do a double on them.



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1 hour ago, Kejan said:

I'll need to look in to a few more constituencies but some  independent MPs seats do look interesting . Mike Gapes voted in as a Labour candidate and has been an MP for 27 years  and has a majority of 32k. Then again I have no idea if he was the stereotypical red rosette MP/how did nothing for the area or if he's well respected, but he's 4/1

You would be as well betting Lord Buckethead as Mike Gapes.

 

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2 hours ago, Detournement said:

You would be as well betting Lord Buckethead as Mike Gapes.

 

Quite, Count Binface is the only choice. 

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Labour to keep Glasgow North East is 5/2. Majority of 242 won with a depressed turnout but SNP have stood the same candidate that lost in 2017 and Paul Sweeney has some name recognition and has been doing shenanigans to keep his name floating about the constituency.

SNP to take Swinson’s seat was 4/1 in Ladbrokes. Would have to check if it’s the same but I’m tempted to do a double on them.






From my experience bookies don’t allow doubles on constituency betting because they are highly correlated.

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I ended up going Labour for a fair number of central belt seats so my SNP total is only 41. Surprised by that.

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Labour are getting nowhere near the central belt

I think the North/North East/North West Glasgow constituencies and East Lothian look good value.

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I think the North/North East/North West Glasgow constituencies and East Lothian look good value.
Can't see it mate. SNP are targeting big, unlike 2017. Too lazy then

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Election forecast based on betting exchange markets. IMG_20191127_192117.thumb.jpg.da496fd5556dedbd983aa3ce6ded2ebc.jpg


Did the Lib Dems choose the scale on this map ?

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Just now, tbsouth said:

Angus and the North East....wtf!!

aangus.jpg

Aye!

I think Angus is 43% to 44% Think most of the NE seats are between 1-3% Moray looks a toughie though at 5%

Swinson on 38% SNP on 33%

Two weeks to go, but certainly away to check my 365 and see what can go for.

P.S That Gapes outside bet to hold Ilford South doesn't look like happening at all going by this. He's on a high of 10% in this poll!

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Went large on neighbouring constituency of Cambridge. Labour hold was 7-4. Into 5-4 at weekend. MRP data showing safe Labour.

Had Labour over 209.5 seats at 5-6 tonight

 

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Angus and the North East....wtf!!
aangus.thumb.jpg.776832934008b89f3354b635a0ab9557.jpg
Speaking from the only SNP seat in the area, there are a lot of silent Tories and No voter types up here who will vote Tory regardless of the mess on Brexit because "NO TO INDEPENDENCE"

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2 hours ago, BucksburnDandy said:
13 hours ago, tbsouth said:
Angus and the North East....wtf!!
aangus.thumb.jpg.776832934008b89f3354b635a0ab9557.jpg

Speaking from the only SNP seat in the area, there are a lot of silent Tories and No voter types up here who will vote Tory regardless of the mess on Brexit because "NO TO INDEPENDENCE"

Any idea if those areas are close or has the SNP no chance of turning it around?

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Any idea if those areas are close or has the SNP no chance of turning it around?
Aberdeen seats, Gordon, Angus and Moray look reasonably marginal, I think Banff & Buchan will stay blue.

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This poll has loads of the seats as toss ups between the SNP and one of the other parties. Gordon, Ochil, Aberdeen South, Edinburgh West,  Coatbridge, Angus and the Ayrshire seat are all neck and neck, as are a couple of seats they have with the SNP (Caithness and East Ren).

A good night would see the SNP pick up around 50 seats just on the toss ups alone. Plenty of others in striking distance beyond that too. The only ones that look out of reach are the 3 the SNP failed to win in 2015, Berwickshire and Aberdeenshire. Dumfries would require an exceptional night too.

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A good night would see the SNP pick up around 50 seats just on the toss ups alone. Plenty of others in striking distance beyond that too. The only ones that look out of reach are the 3 the SNP failed to win in 2015, Berwickshire and Aberdeenshire. Dumfries would require an exceptional night too.


50 would be better than good, it would be a great result IMO. Wishful thinking though.

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