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General Election 2019 - AND IT’S LIVE!


Frank Grimes

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I can't shake the feeling something similar to last time will happen in Scotland. Tories to do as well as the polls suggest in Scotland, Labour to do a bit better and the SNP to do worse. Some people have said stuff like "less than 40 seats will be a disaster for the SNP", and it will definitely be spun that way, but I sense they'll be doing well to get the same number as last time. They've not really had anything to say except "vote for us to lock Boris out of Downing Street".

 

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15 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Because his deadline of 31 December 2020 is non achievable.

Pull the other one, it plays tunes. 

The negotiating deadline will be extended if necessary. It's not a one-year negotiation as a lot of preparatory work has been done already.

David Davis's team had been negotiating  a detailed "Canada Plus" FTA with Barnier (and agreed with Tusk and Juncker) before May's cabal knifed them at Chequers. Johnson's deal, especially the changes to the Political Declaration, is based on the pre-Chequers negotiations.

There will still be plenty of Tory MPs who voted Remain after tomorrow. They and their pro-free trade allies will move against Johnson if he does not get a FTA with the EU. 

 

Edited by Bishop Briggs
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Just now, Bishop Briggs said:

The negotiating deadline will be extended if necessary.

So your argument is that the PM is lying to the public and we should then vote on the assumption he is lying!

Jesus wept. 

Quote

It's not a one-year negotiation as a lot of preparatory work has b been done already.

The bandwidth has been consumed getting a deal to leave not some magical deal after we leave that satisfies all including Ireland.  

You are trusting a PM you say is going into an election with the expectation that he is happy to break one of his keystone pledges.

 

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2 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

So your argument is that the PM is lying to the public and we should then vote on the assumption he is lying!

Jesus wept. 

The bandwidth has been consumed getting a deal to leave not some magical deal after we leave that satisfies all including Ireland.  

You are trusting a PM you say is going into an election with the expectation that he is happy to break one of his keystone pledges.

 

In the end, pragmatism and realpolitik tend to prevail over election promises. I don't like, respect or trust any of the party leaders. The reality is that all politicians lie and break election promises. That the nature of politics, especially under the whipping system, and it's been like that for centuries. 

The Lib Dems are the worst. Under Nick Clegg, they promised an EU referendum, then changed their minds in Coalition. Now they want to stop Brexit after the Cameron implemented Clegg's policy! 

The EU and Remainers have the same approach. Vote again until you give us the result that we want - and then f**k off! It happened in France, the Netherlands and Ireland. Given the chance, it wouyd happen here.

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Just now, Bishop Briggs said:

In the end, pragmatism and realpolitik tend to prevail over election promises.

In other words he is lying to his voters on his core promise, the one he has built his whole campaign around? 

"Trust his because he is lying."

 

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1 minute ago, dorlomin said:

In other words he is lying to his voters on his core promise, the one he has built his whole campaign around? 

"Trust his because he is lying."

 

You think that Johnson is the only one that is lying?

How is Sturgeon going to fix the budget deficit after independence? It's currently a massive £12.5 billion - 7% of GDP compared to the UK's 1%!

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You think that Johnson is the only one that is lying?

How is Sturgeon going to fix the budget deficit after independence? It's currently a massive £12.5 billion - 7% of GDP compared to the UK's 1%!

...

 

Is there a lie sturgeon has told in there somewhere or am I missing something.

 

 

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Just now, dorlomin said:

You argument is that should vote for Boris on the basis he is lying. 

I'm not arguing that anyone should vote for Boris or any particular party. The Lib Dems will hold my seat easily so I'm not voting tomorrow.

All I'm saying that it is highly likely that the UK and the EU will agree a free trade deal during the transition period. If the negotiations need more time, Johnson would be under huge pressure from his Ministers and backbenchers to extend the deadline.

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I'm not arguing that anyone should vote for Boris or any particular party. The Lib Dems will hold my seat easily so I'm not voting tomorrow.
All I'm saying that it is highly likely that the UK and the EU will agree a free trade deal during the transition period. If the negotiations need more time, Johnson would be under huge pressure from his Ministers and backbenchers to extend the deadline.
Lib Dems may not hold your seat. If you don't bother voting you can't really complain
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1 minute ago, Bishop Briggs said:

All I'm saying that it is highly likely that the UK and the EU will agree a free trade deal during the transition period. 

Quote

 

Brexit trade negotiations cannot be finished in the timeframe claimed by Boris Johnson, the EU’s chief negotiator has privately admitted – blowing a hole in the prime minister’s big election promise to “get Brexit done”.

In a leaked recording obtained by The Independent, Michel Barnier tells a private meeting that the UK’s 11-month timetable to wrap up trade talks by 2021 is “unrealistic” and suggests negotiations will drag on until long after the end of next year.

“With regards to this agreement, we will not get everything done in 11 months. We will do all we can – we won’t do it all,” Mr Barnier can be heard telling a group of senior MEPs at the closed meeting in the EU capital this week.

The recording sparked consternation from Mr Johnson’s critics back in the UK, with the prime minister accused of “lying to voters” about Brexit and “playing the British public for fools”.

Mr Barnier, who was recently reappointed to lead the next round of Brexit talks for the EU side, told the meeting: “It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can’t do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the ‘vital minimum’ to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale.”

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-delay-boris-johnson-deal-general-election-eu-barnier-leak-deadline-a9242346.html

Quote

 

The British diplomat in charge of explaining Brexit to the US government, Congress and public, has resigned, saying she was no longer prepared to “peddle half-truths on behalf of a government I do not trust”.

Alexandra Hall Hall, the Brexit counsellor at the UK embassy in Washington, had been frustrated with the job for some time, according to friends and colleagues.

They said she felt she was not being given enough reliable information to do her job, which was to explain Britain’s departure from the EU to US audiences and help promote a strong US-UK relationship post-Brexit.

Her resignation, which was addressed to the chargé d’affaires, Michael Tatham, and circulated among close colleagues at the embassy, was damning in its description of the Johnson government’s integrity.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/06/alexandra-hall-british-diplomat-resigns-letter-cant-peddle-half-truths-uk-government

 

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A £28 billion hit to the economy,(-1.8% down) making each person on average £1000 per year, worse off.

Have to then lower barriers an awful lot to try and trade with others, US etc, to try and make up the massive shortfall of losing 49% of trade which is already with the EU.

EU will rightly, play hard ball, with non-regression clauses, and also 'dynamic' alignment with EU eg also likely to ask for access to UK waters for fishing boats as part of any FTA.

No serious economist has yet said that it will take anything other than years to strike other deals, whether or not Tory HQ claims that it has already rolled over existing deals.

The Labour proposal of a more credible deal, is a much closer relationship with the EU, a much softer Brexit, which would clearly lead to less economic hardship. We keep hearing about 'democracy'...the Labour proposal is still based on democracy as Leave is on the ballot paper.

Keep returning to Rees-Mogg...'decades' to see any benefit.

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