Jump to content

General Election 2019 - AND IT’S LIVE!


Frank Grimes

X in the box for   

467 members have voted

You do not have permission to vote in this poll, or see the poll results. Please sign in or register to vote in this poll.

Recommended Posts

Barring a major campaigning disaster, my prediction:

SNP 43 (9 gains, 1 loss)

Con 9 (losing Angus, Stirling, Ochil and Ayr)

LD 5 (gaining NE Fife)

Lab 2 (Edin South & Kirkcaldy)

I'd keep an eye on East Ren and Aberdeen South, but I can't see anything else moving. East Ren's Tories are a pretty educated bunch and they hate Johnson, but they hate Corbyn and Sturgeon even more. And I'm not all that confident about predicting those Tory losses - it really depends on enough 2017 Labour voters switching to SNP.

I can't make a UK prediction because I don't understand England any more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest bernardblack

What frightens me is the amount of people who just flat out will not vote SNP as they “don’t want another referendum”

That’s not 100% on the cards and more SNP seats in Westminster can only be good for Scotland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What frightens me is the amount of people who just flat out will not vote SNP as they “don’t want another referendum”

That’s not 100% on the cards and more SNP seats in Westminster can only be good for Scotland.


It’s literally the major SNP policy in this election. They’ve made it front and centre, can’t complain if it puts people off.

Would be like the Tories complaining they’re not getting enough Remain votes.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agree with Paco. I think the SNP lost a lot of votes in 2017 because they weren't strong enough on independence in that campaign. Seems the vast majority of those voters didn't switch, just didn't turn up, so I think the strategy is to get them out and voting again.

Whether it's worked or not I'm not sure. I think we all know people who normally wouldn't vote SNP who are in this election because of Brexit in this election. I know a few who have said that's what they're planning to do, but whether they actually do it in the end is another matter altogether.

Edited by Kyle
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Malky3 said:

Freedoms are removed, democracy is damaged, and the one most common outcome is that everyone races to the bottom in those societies except those who are corrupt enough to win favour with the regimes.

Voting for a Conservative Party who have stated at the outset that the want to limit freedom of movement, supporting Brexit that was delivered following serious accusations of unlawful campaign funding, which will make a fortune for a small number of players who have bet serious money in various ways on Brexit being delivered and GBP weakening as a result.

But is talking about "the Socialism and Communism".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Malky3 said:

Wow, and some accuse Boris Johnson of misogyny. :blink:

That's because he's a misogynist. A racist and a homophobe too. But you are ok to back him. Would you vote for him in Uxbridge?

Some people also say you're intellectually dishonest, disingenuous, bottle questions put to you and a disinformation troll. They'd be right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, paul-r-cfc said:

At this stage in the game, I reckon most Torh voters would still vote for them if Boris had put the wee boy on the hospital floor himself with a right hook.

I've spoken to a few of that persuasion. To them, the ultimate evil is independence and Corbyn and even though they'll complain about Brexit and the Tory leadership, they are still quite comfortably going to get into line and vote for the Tories. Even if it was an Alabama scenario and their local candidate had done something horrific on that scale, I'd really not be surprised to see a lot of them hold firm. Interestingly, I've noticed as well that there's a certain demographic where the Tory leaflet slogans so impact very very effectively, much more so than anyone else, I've heard people use phrases like 'stick to the day job', 'obsessed with independence' etc in serious political discussion - in some ways, I think the Tory machine has been very very effective in how they've communicated to their target voters more so than other parties.

The most baffling discussion I've ever had was with someone who wouldn't normally be considered a stupid person and telling me they were thinking about voting 'leave' in the referendum. They explained that they knew that it would be a complete shitfest and actually had a very good grip of what was going on but they felt that if we voted leave, it would be positive if Scotland had a largest leave vote to reduce the mandate of the Scottish parties fighting against Westminster. 

It's a bit of an echo chamber on here at times but I think it would be a mistake to think that there isn't a very formidable anti independence opposition that is more loyal than the yes camp in general. Turnout was around 72% in 2015 and went down around 5% in 2017, I would be very surprised if unionist or Tory voters accounted for a significant part of that drop.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Kyle said:

Agree with Paco. I think the SNP lost a lot of votes in 2017 because they weren't strong enough on independence in that campaign. Seems the vast majority of those voters didn't switch, just didn't turn up, so I think the strategy is to get them out and voting again.

Whether it's worked or not I'm not sure. I think we all know people who normally wouldn't vote SNP who are in this election because of Brexit in this election. I know a few who have said that's what they're planning to do, but whether they actually do it in the end is another matter altogether.

i think that's right too.  If you look at the actual voter numbers rather than percentages you can see SNP voters just didn't turn up.  It's never been properly worked out why, in my opinion.

I think anything less than high 40s/50 seats for the SNP sets independence back.  You really need a 2015 style earthquake to see London media take any notice at all.  Anything else can be spun.  

I would love to be able to vote for someone other than the SNP but the principle of the scottish people having the right to decide on independence - not independence itself -is too important to me and seem to be at stake in this election.  I can't believe it's even up for debate.  It's not about the SNP, it's about having a choice.  What happened to the type of Scottish unionism that was actually in favour of a union, not a region?  All this "it's a UK vote, you voted to stay lump everything you get"... that's not what a union is and  it's total fantasy of some to suggest that's what a majority of No voters wanted in 2014 never mind Scots as a whole.  What happened to defending devolution.  It was Unionists that built the wallace monument for goodness sake.  What happened to standing up for Scottish interests rather than depreciating everything about us all the time.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, jamamafegan said:

The fact that a record number of voters has signed in Scotland suggests to me that these are probably young people and I can’t imagine there is significant appetite amongst young people to vote Conservative. Hope I’m right anyway.

I've been surprised by the number of fuckwits I have seen on Twitter and Facebook who were under 25 and saying they would vote conservative. Probably my fault for asking the Tory candidate in West Dunbartonshire to answer many many questions on the shite she spouts. Probably triggered some algo into thinking I was considering voting for her.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Always found this John Ashworth guy irritating - nice to see him come a cropper. Putting aside his bad choice of back-stabbing mates and his stupidly loose lips during a campaign - surely the most damning and disloyal thing must be his repeated references to Labour as "they" and "them", rather than "we" and "us".  Toast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, tirso said:

i think that's right too.  If you look at the actual voter numbers rather than percentages you can see SNP voters just didn't turn up.  It's never been properly worked out why, in my opinion.

I think anything less than high 40s/50 seats for the SNP sets independence back.  You really need a 2015 style earthquake to see London media take any notice at all.  Anything else can be spun.  

I would love to be able to vote for someone other than the SNP but the principle of the scottish people having the right to decide on independence - not independence itself -is too important to me and seem to be at stake in this election.  I can't believe it's even up for debate.  It's not about the SNP, it's about having a choice.  What happened to the type of Scottish unionism that was actually in favour of a union, not a region?  All this "it's a UK vote, you voted to stay lump everything you get"... that's not what a union is and  it's total fantasy of some to suggest that's what a majority of No voters wanted in 2014 never mind Scots as a whole.  What happened to defending devolution.  It was Unionists that built the wallace monument for goodness sake.  What happened to standing up for Scottish interests rather than depreciating everything about us all the time.  

That would actually give me something to think about at each election. Unless Alison Thewliss stands down or becomes a completely different kind of mp, I'm unlikely to shift regardless as I think she's doing an excellent job, but labour are making it very easy for me right now with their ridiculous stance on independence and... well... much more aside.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, tirso said:

quite contrary to what Scottish labour themselves seems to think, if they unequivocally came out in favour of Scotland's right to decide, despite being against independence I think they'd pick up a slew of votes in the central belt.

Definitely. I would say at heart I'm a Labour supporter, but it's been impossible to vote for them at all in recent years.

If they got their act together, it would definitely tempt me. But for now there's no real option other than the SNP, so much so my 2nd vote would be Green.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Labour lose the election then Corbyn’s biggest failure will have been his inability to jettison utter charlatans such as Ashworth from the party. For all the talk of a broad church, Labour as a meaningful left wing project has been hampered by scores of these c***s who haven’t a shred of decency in their bones to back a meaningful alternative that’s enthused the biggest score of voters since the early years of the Blair project and this time it wasn’t even a smoke and mirrors act that just cemented the Thatcherite consensus.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, NotThePars said:

If Labour lose the election then Corbyn’s biggest failure will have been his inability to jettison utter charlatans such as Ashworth from the party. For all the talk of a broad church, Labour as a meaningful left wing project has been hampered by scores of these c***s who haven’t a shred of decency in their bones to back a meaningful alternative that’s enthused the biggest score of voters since the early years of the Blair project and this time it wasn’t even a smoke and mirrors act that just cemented the Thatcherite consensus.

As I said the cranks and fanatics are already blaming everyone but themselves. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...