General Election 2019 - AND IT’S LIVE!

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Adamski said:

I would have thought that bad weather would hit the Tories harder: older people less likely to venture out, people in the country having trouble reaching their polling station, etc.

Most old people probably use a postal vote though, not sure whether it would have a disproportionate effect on them, the young aren't known for their determination to get their vote out.

[Ross.]

9 hours ago, Pet Jeden said:

Here's an idea. If it's a hung parliament or a tight Conservative margin - how about Sturgeon offers SNP support to deliver Brexit for England in return for all reserved matters coming back to Scotland. Just leave the monarchy (for now), defence on a 5-10 year programme as agreed between Holyrood and Westminster, and an NI style option to be half-in half-out of the EU? Too Loopy?? Always though Sturgeon should have gone for something like this when May was sinking. But her knee-jerk chanting of "we hate the Toaries" probably precludes any cold. hard-headed deal with Boris to deliver 95% independence. We would wake up one morning in 10 years time and find it was 100%.

Another danger of this approach is that if the Conservatives somehow contrive to back out on their side of the deal, the SNP will spend the next 25 years known as the party who sold out the country to a Tory government, which would put independence back for a long long time as no one would trust the party to deliver anything they say the will. Shades of the late 70's in that respect.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Most old people probably use a postal vote though, not sure whether it would have a disproportionate effect on them, the young aren't known for their determination to get their vote out.

I'm not so sure, I don't know any of my elderly relatives or their friends who use a postal vote. Maybe this is due to a "postal vote" being used in the past more for people being out of the country etc as opposed to being a convenience thing. 

I'd also say that the majority of the "elderly" will either have a car or access to a car so getting to the polling station won't be the type of hardship that many are making out. You also tend to find that those in sheltered housing will more than likely be situated in or around town centres and as such will be very close to their polling station from a walking perspective.

It's like everything else, if you can make it out to the shops and post office then there's really no reason why you can't make it out to vote, the bottom line is if you want to vote then you'll find a way, if you don't want to vote then you'll find a reason not to and the "cold winter weather" really doesn't cut it for me................

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Ross. said:

Another danger of this approach is that if the Conservatives somehow contrive to back out on their side of the deal, the SNP will spend the next 25 years known as the party who sold out the country to a Tory government, which would put independence back for a long long time as no one would trust the party to deliver anything they say the will. Shades of the late 70's in that respect.

No, I don't buy that at all.

Years of being ruled by Labour in Scotland has taught us that there's really no difference between them and the Tories at all, hence the reason the Labour party were wiped out in Scotland and people turned to the SNP.

That's all fantasy stuff anyway as there's no way a deal like that would ever happen in the first place and if it did and the Tories reneged then I do believe that we could see some threats of "civil unrest" not seen since Sevco were banished to the 3rd division............

Edited December 3, 2019 by WATTOO

[doulikefish]

Interesting

 

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/1903376/fishing-industry-boss-claims-tories-do-not-have-credible-vision-for-future-of-sector/

[Pet Jeden]

2 minutes ago, Ross. said:

Another danger of this approach is that if the Conservatives somehow contrive to back out on their side of the deal, the SNP will spend the next 25 years known as the party who sold out the country to a Tory government, which would put independence back for a long long time as no one would trust the party to deliver anything they say the will. Shades of the late 70's in that respect.

Yes it's a gamble. But independence is going to be on the back burner for the next 5-10 years anyway if the Conservatives win a majority. Sturgeon has gambled on a Labour government or a hung parliament and burned her bridges with the Tories and any possible co-operation for another referendum anytime soon.

[Ross.]

3 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

No, I don't buy that at all.

Years of being ruled by Labour in Scotland has taught us that there's really no difference between them and the Tories at all, hence the reason the Labour party were wiped out in Scotland and people turned to the SNP.

That's all fantasy stuff anyway as there's no way a deal like that would ever happen in the first place and if it did and the Tories reneged then I do believe that we could see some threats of "civil unrest" not seen since Sevco were banished to the 3rd division............

These days the reality and the detail don't particularly matter. Elements of the mainstream press still hold huge sway over the narrative that is put out and they will jump on anything that protects the union. This would give them that opportunity.

1 minute ago, Pet Jeden said:

Yes it's a gamble. But independence is going to be on the back burner for the next 5-10 years anyway if the Conservatives win a majority. Sturgeon has gambled on a Labour government or a hung parliament and burned her bridges with the Tories and any possible co-operation for another referendum anytime soon.

I agree that it's a gamble but I think in the context of Scottish politics and independence, it was the only gamble that was really available for them to take.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said:

Yes it's a gamble. But independence is going to be on the back burner for the next 5-10 years anyway if the Conservatives win a majority. Sturgeon has gambled on a Labour government or a hung parliament and burned her bridges with the Tories and any possible co-operation for another referendum anytime soon.

On the contrary, if the Tories do indeed get a majority and they pursue their favoured form of "extreme capitalism" to the detriment of Scotland and your average working punter, then you can rest assured that the SNP will go from strength to strength and independence will become inevitable..........

[Pet Jeden]

1 minute ago, Ross. said:

These days the reality and the detail don't particularly matter. Elements of the mainstream press still hold huge sway over the narrative that is put out and they will jump on anything that protects the union. This would give them that opportunity.

I agree that it's a gamble but I think in the context of Scottish politics and independence, it was the only gamble that was really available for them to take.

I disagree. Over the last 30 years the SNP have very effectively stolen Labour's clothes in Scotland and supplanted them as the Scottish establishment, with something like a consistent 45% support. To get a clear majority, over a sustained period of time, they have to win over a chunk of the 30% Conservative and conservatively minded Scots - not all of whom are Unionist.

[Ross.]

8 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said:

I disagree. Over the last 30 years the SNP have very effectively stolen Labour's clothes in Scotland and supplanted them as the Scottish establishment, with something like a consistent 45% support. To get a clear majority, over a sustained period of time, they have to win over a chunk of the 30% Conservative and conservatively minded Scots - not all of whom are Unionist.

That 45% hasn't been consistent for 30 years. In 2010 the SNP got 20% of the Scottish vote, in 2005 it was around 15%, 2001 it was around 20% and in 1997 around 22%. The traditional SNP vote probably was slightly conservative. The huge jump in support is certainly by and large people switching from Labour. I don't think however that the older, conservative element has gone anywhere else though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Scotland#1987

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Ross.

[Pet Jeden]

2 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

On the contrary, if the Tories do indeed get a majority and they pursue their favoured form of "extreme capitalism" to the detriment of Scotland and your average working punter, then you can rest assured that the SNP will go from strength to strength and independence will become inevitable..........

What extreme capitalism, exactly? On a world view political/economic spectrum of 1-100, where 1.  is sell your own young into slavery, no welfare state capitalism and 100. is  from each according to their ability to each according to their need communism, all post-war UK governments - Conservative and Labour-  have hovered about the half way mark. In fact, they're probably about 48-52!

[ICTJohnboy]

10 hours ago, Pet Jeden said:

You can apply that idiotic caveat to every election or referendum. Events change after the vote. It doesn't invalidate the original vote. In a referendum in particular, the electorate vote on the principle, not detail and forecasts. Nobody (outwith a handful of sad politicos) reads a manifesto, Nobody read the SNP's 400 page document. In their hearts, people either want to stay in or come out of the UK or the EU. You can argue about whether the people will be a bit better off or a bit worse off in 30 years time. But neither will result in the sky falling in. That smart arse argument that we need a 2nd vote takes us down a horrible, dangerous road. The message to hot heads in the years come  is - you can't really effect change through the ballot box. So...

 

We're already going down a horrible, dangerous road and one which could still lead to a No Deal Brexit.

But no matter, as long as we end up with something that can be called "Brexit", the English, and the lick spittle Scottish Tories will, no doubt be more than happy.

[Pet Jeden]

2 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

We're already going down a horrible, dangerous road and one which could still lead to a No Deal Brexit.

But no matter, as long as we end up with something that can be called "Brexit", the English, and the lick spittle Scottish Tories will, no doubt be more than happy.

I don't think you grasp my point. By horrible and dangerous, I mean like countries where political change is not effected through the ballot box. Faith in the power of voting outweighs any gripe about whether tax rates should be 40% or 50%, whether benefits should be universal or separate, whether we should be in this economic union or that.

[ICTJohnboy]

48 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said:

I don't think you grasp my point. By horrible and dangerous, I mean like countries where political change is not effected through the ballot box. Faith in the power of voting outweighs any gripe about whether tax rates should be 40% or 50%, whether benefits should be universal or separate, whether we should be in this economic union or that.

 

I did grasp your point, and you made it very well.

I'm just trying to say that the road to Brexit, and we're not going to be able to judge it until the end of 2020, is also likely to be "horrible and dangerous"

[NotThePars]

Even their most famous supporter feels the need to call them out.

[Thistle_do_nicely]

3 hours ago, Dons_1988 said:

Alta Pete generally strikes me as pretty switched on but ‘we’ve had a Scottish prime minister’ is a fairly shite argument against independence.

Could be wrong about this as it's one of those things that's in the back of my mind but I can't fully flesh out why, but doesn't EVEL seriously put a dent in the chances of ever having a future PM that is (at least nominally) Scottish?

[tirso]

I think those saying a majority or over 40 seats is an unequivocal mandate for indyref2 are kidding themselves to manage expectations.

It won't be seen that way by London or the media. Snp really need a 2015 election or close to put it beyond doubt. The votes were there before, they should be now.

It's fptp as well and if people think Independence support is 50/50 they should be cleaning up like 2015.

[Baxter Parp]

I would have thought that bad weather would hit the Tories harder: older people less likely to venture out, people in the country having trouble reaching their polling station, etc.

Older folk more likely to have a postal vote.

[Baxter Parp]

Could be wrong about this as it's one of those things that's in the back of my mind but I can't fully flesh out why, but doesn't EVEL seriously put a dent in the chances of ever having a future PM that is (at least nominally) Scottish?

I had that thought when Jo Swinson was proclaiming herself the next PM. How can she be PM if she's not allowed to vote on some legislation?

[Baxter Parp]

I think those saying a majority or over 40 seats is an unequivocal mandate for indyref2 are kidding themselves to manage expectations.

It won't be seen that way by London or the media. Snp really need a 2015 election or close to put it beyond doubt. The votes were there before, they should be now.

It's fptp as well and if people think Independence support is 50/50 they should be cleaning up like 2015.

It's not just SNP voters that believe in independence though.