Billy Jean King Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, welshbairn said: I was thinking more like 20% and especially in Lib Dem/Tory marginals. Most people don't vote tactically. Someone needs to tell the media and the Parties themselves this as that's all we seem to hear and nearly all campaigning so far revolves round tactical voting. Brexit means this is no ordinary GE, there will be millions of tactical votes imo and hence the outcome is nigh on impossible to predict. The Farage announcement has muddied the waters even further. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ross. said: I would say that the 40% you mention are far more likely to vote Tory and take Brexit than they are to switch to the Lib Dems and risk Labour getting a sniff of power. If you look at the latest batch of MPs, they are taking Tories in and the Labour members that have come have been strictly to the right of the party. Swinson is trying to go for that centre-right thing and set herself up as independent from it all somehow (obviously, she'd need to do something post election and compromise that). You are right though that you are likely to see this consolidation of the Tory vote but also remember that 2015 and 2017 were historically low levels of Lib Dem vote, the lowest since their party existed. I get that the brand is tainted etc but there are surely a lot of people who historically voted Lib Dem but migrated over, Cameron's appeal was being a more sensible Tory and it seems that this shored up his vote and see him take all those sorts of marginals he needed in 2015. FPTP means that a Tory to Lib Dem swing of just 2% would see the Tories as no longer the largest party if applied uniformly. If Labour do repeat their performance from the same point in the polls last time, they form a government. The Tories have a sizable lead but it's based on people who have never voted for them in their lives, from demographics skewed against them, doing something unprecedented. We've not really started yet and even at the extreme end, the swings that would be needed to reverse that aren't unseen in British politics. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Malky3 said: Dear oh dear. If you were born in say 1967, you'd still be a teenager by 1986 - and very definitely still growing up yet incredibly your age would be higher than the average IQ of Dundee United fans on Pie and Bovril. Idiot! Hi Malky, Can you back up any of your claims with actual evidence yet? I'm still waiting for you to answer the majority of the questions I have asked you. Thanks. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, harry94 said: If you look at the latest batch of MPs, they are taking Tories in and the Labour members that have come have been strictly to the right of the party. Swinson is trying to go for that centre-right thing and set herself up as independent from it all somehow (obviously, she'd need to do something post election and compromise that). You are right though that you are likely to see this consolidation of the Tory vote but also remember that 2015 and 2017 were historically low levels of Lib Dem vote, the lowest since their party existed. I get that the brand is tainted etc but there are surely a lot of people who historically voted Lib Dem but migrated over, Cameron's appeal was being a more sensible Tory and it seems that this shored up his vote and see him take all those sorts of marginals he needed in 2015. FPTP means that a Tory to Lib Dem swing of just 2% would see the Tories as no longer the largest party if applied uniformly. If Labour do repeat their performance from the same point in the polls last time, they form a government. The Tories have a sizable lead but it's based on people who have never voted for them in their lives, from demographics skewed against them, doing something unprecedented. We've not really started yet and even at the extreme end, the swings that would be needed to reverse that aren't unseen in British politics. It's definitely tough to predict exactly how things will go. Brexit is obviously the biggest topic right now and the Tories have positioned themselves as they main party to get it done. The Lib Dems have actually played it quite well in trying to hoover up the remain vote. Labour haven't really done anything, and how that will translate in the polls is going to be interesting to see. I still expect a Tory majority and the Lib Dems to remain the 4th biggest party. One thing that might see that change is if the unionist vote in Scotland consolidates behind the tories, as they are still viewed as the only way to prevent another independence referendum by many. There is a small chance the SNP could lose a few seats and the Lib Dems end up 3rd overall. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 I think the Libdems would have played better with the soft Tories if they'd stuck with a referendum rather than revoke. I realise they felt they had to distinguish themselves from Labour's offer of a soft brexit v remain, and it was a stunt as they're never going to win, but thinking it would be legitimate to overthrow a 52% verdict with a maybe 30 odd % vote looks shabby and extreme. Most people probably don't over think it though, so maybe it's not a big deal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 4 hours ago, EH75 said: Conversation with the mother in law recently. I live in England. This is a woman who works 50 hours a week in 2 jobs to make ends meet, doesn't own her own home and I suspect has little in the way of pension provision. I didn't get out of her who she will be voting for but she won't be voting for Labour because Corbyn "terrifies" her. When pressed on this she was unable to elaborate. I suspect she will vote for the tories to "get brexit done". People down here are so consumed with getting out of the EU that they haven't stopped for a moment to think how the next government is going to affect their lives in any other way. We live in a fairly safe tory seat so in reality this sort of thing probably won't make too much difference here but I'm sure its replicated across the country. When you ask them why they want out of the EU they can't even give proper reasons apart from the usual sound bites about "being ruled from Brussels" etc I can relate to this 100%. Please accept my sincere condolences. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DA Baracus Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Gaz FFC said: I learned very quickly how thick the British electorate are. You can literally get millions of turkeys to vote for Xmas. If some parties had a policy to kill your spouse and kids in there manifesto I still believe they'd get votes. You can literally get millions of turkeys to vote? So many questions! Are there even millions of turkeys in the UK? How do they get to the polling stations? How do they physically vote? Do they hold a wee pen in their beaks? How are they differentiated so that a single turkey doesn't vote more than once? How old does a turkey need to be to vote? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, DA Baracus said: How do they physically vote? They give their preferred candidate a gobble... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pet Jeden Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, DA Baracus said: You can literally get millions of turkeys to vote? So many questions! Are there even millions of turkeys in the UK? How do they get to the polling stations? How do they physically vote? Do they hold a wee pen in their beaks? How are they differentiated so that a single turkey doesn't vote more than once? How old does a turkey need to be to vote? This grates with me too. But language changes and you can't fight the tide. "Literally" now actually means "practically". 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DA Baracus Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said: This grates with me too. But language changes and you can't fight the tide. "Literally" now actually means "practically". I refuse to accept this! Literally has just one meaning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Pet Jeden said: "Literally" now actually means "practically". Worse than that. The word was so widely misused that they changed the meaning of literally to literally mean non literally. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, DA Baracus said: I refuse to accept this! Literally has just one meaning. You are quite literally talking rubbish here... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 May well be wrong, but I'm strongly wanting to back Lib Dems under 15%. I don't think Swinson comes across well at all, and she's a bit well, pish really as a leader. That Flavible website is quite interesting and shows how volatile polls/breaking news can be e.g yesterday after Farage's decision, the SNP were on 33 seats ; and now today they are up to 49. They basically take polls and map/project them on to what a result would look like if that poll was correct. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Wonder if we will get The REAL Brexit Party standing! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malky3 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 2 hours ago, harry94 said: Your average voter knows nothing about Arlene Foster. To most, she's a regional lunatic and is just really known as being a staunch unionist. Nigel Farage is the biggest figure in British Politics, there's no hiding from that and everyone has an opinion of that. Around 40% of the Tory vote in 2015 voted to remain. If just a fraction of that actively voted Lib Dem or even stayed at home, perceiving a more extreme position, it could be devastating and possibly more than negate the losses people are projecting for Labour. Did you read the post I was responding to? It said your average moderate Tory would be driven away by Farage. I think your average Tory voter knows very well who Arlene Foster is and if they didn't before they needed DUP votes to get a majority they certainly do now. Your average Tory voter celebrated with David Cameron and Nck Clegg formed a coalition government to boot Gordon Brown into touch. They celebrated when Theresa May did a deal with the DUP to keep Corbyn out, and if the Conservatives can't get an outright majority your average Conservative voter will be delighted for their party to do a deal with whomever just so long as it keeps Corbyn out of office. It comes down to negative politics like it often does. People with real conservative beliefs - who believe in the importance of fiscal prudence - will vote in whatever way it takes to keep an increasingly extreme left wing party like Labour out of government regardless of whatever deal Farage has done with Johnston. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Boris and chums will do anything to get a trade deal with trumpLike most things they will dress it up as something else and the gammons will cheer it I don't know if its been covered on here yet but if the Tories win a majority, is our NHS safe? Opening trade talks with Trump could lead to 'Americanising' many of our bedrocks on which this country depends such as the NHS. Or is this Labour propaganda? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snafu said: I don't know if its been covered on here yet but if the Tories win a majority, is our NHS safe? Opening trade talks with Trump could lead to 'Americanising' many of our bedrocks on which this country depends such as the NHS. Absolutely not. Opening the NHS further to private providers is the tip of the iceberg. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ira Gaines Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Yeah. There's no way the NHS isn't fucked. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malky3 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Snafu said: I don't know if its been covered on here yet but if the Tories win a majority, is our NHS safe? Opening trade talks with Trump could lead to 'Americanising' many of our bedrocks on which this country depends such as the NHS. Or is this Labour propaganda? The issue has been covered. Basically all US Trade Deals done under Trump have included a desire to see the rest of the world pay the same prices to US pharma as US citizens have to pay for their drugs. The Channel 4 Dispatches programmed tried desperately to make it look like the Tories had already agreed to this, but they got no confirmation from anyone they interviewed for the programme. All they got was a confirmation that it was on the US Governments want list. IMO both Corbyn and Johnston would face the same negotiations if we leave the EU. I don't see how it can be assumed that the NHS is safer under one than it is under the other. At the end of the day, regardless of who is in power, it will be down to the negotiating skills of our civil servants. BTW - the future of the NHS in Scotland is just as questionable. If Scotland was to become Independent we too would be looking for a trade deal with the US, whilst also looking to cut our public spending by £12.6Bn per annum. The total budget for the Scottish NHS currently is just over £14Bn per annum. Edited November 12, 2019 by Malky3 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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