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General Election  

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I normally love a good General Election, but the Tories are absolutely winning this, which is going to be a fabulous Christmas present for the most vulnerable in society. Still, taking back control, eh.

At least there's always "The UK's next Prime Minister" to cheer us up. That's precious.

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Prediction -

Labour to lose heartlands in north England to TBP & Tories - Corbyn resigns.

Swinson to lose her seat - Resigns.
Lib Dem’s & Labour both pick up seats in remain voting Tory Seats.

Tories have a small majority.

SNP To take 48 seats in Scotland.

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Reckon the SNP will get 55 seats, 3 LD and 1 Lab (Murray) the other with a Tory wipeout in Scotland. In England closer than expected but the Tories with the most seats, Brexit Party 0, but with enough % to damage the Tories, letting in Lab and LD in some places.

So, another hung parliament, but I still think the LDs will be itching to get those ministerial seats back and will sell out again for some sop about another vote on changing the voting system, while allowing Johnston to put Brexit through. They sat the night before 2010 and said tuition fees were their absolute red line, so they won't have any qualms about ditching the EU this time around.

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1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

I think people forget how many people who normally vote Tory voted Remain. They won't go to Labour but the Lib Dems could eat into their vote, winning some seats for themselves but also handing some to Labour.

I think there's a lot of truth in this.  We were on holiday in Italy recently and met some 'natural' Tories' who cannot stand Johnson and do not wish Brexit.  Much of the Tory vote lies in the professional middle classes, and to be blunt the more you travel up the intellectual scale the less Brexiteers you'll find.  There is also the fact that this GE is effectively a de facto Referendum 2  on Brexit, and whilst the electorate doesn't normally do  protest votes at GE I think this could be an exception.  This could benefit the Lib Dems.

Much is being made of Labour voters in the North of England transferring to Johnson to 'get Brexit done'.  I think this is overcooked; it's one thing to take a punt on the Brexit Party in a Euro Election, but crossing the divide in a GE is another matter.  I also predict that Johnson really has f**k all positive to roll out ahead of 12/12 and already the theme is 'Just Get It Done' - it's already sounding like 'Brexit Means Brexit'.

If the opposition parties continually hammer home the NHS, rampant inequality, homelessness, austerity and Universal Credit and all the real life issues then this couldget interesting.

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7 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Can't see any scenario where the Tories will be wiped out in Scotland.

Labour might be though.

Lib Dems will take a few as well.

Maybe even a surprise with the Brexit Party taking a seat or two.

 

In Scotland?

Which one or two?

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7 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:
7 hours ago, welshbairn said:
I think people forget how many people who normally vote Tory voted Remain. They won't go to Labour but the Lib Dems could eat into their vote, winning some seats for themselves but also handing some to Labour.

You could say same thing in Labour seats ie, they vote lib Dems and let Torys through back door. If Johnson can come to some agreement with Farage then a Tory majority is a shoe in

What a great word "if".

I suspect Farage will offer a pact "if" the Tories surrender to everything he wants.

Just because both parties are obnoxious does not mean that they actually like each other.  After all, in a lots of cases, they are chasing the same voters.

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The tories are now the "brexit" party they dont need him

What a great word "if".
I suspect Farage will offer a pact "if" the Tories surrender to everything he wants.
Just because both parties are obnoxious does not mean that they actually like each other.  After all, in a lots of cases, they are chasing the same voters.
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SNP for me, don't see any real alternative and to be honest I'm pretty happy with the SNPs policies, performance and their stance on Brexit. My current MP is Labour, wee Ged Killen, and though he doesn't seem like a bad guy, he does seem to be mostly pointless. He also spent Monday and Tuesday morning having a complete meltdown about the prospect of a election, calling the SNP and Lib Dems Boris little helpers, before Corbyn humiliated him by also backing it, so I'm guessing he doesn't fancy his chances much.

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3 hours ago, Fullerene said:

What a great word "if".

I suspect Farage will offer a pact "if" the Tories surrender to everything he wants.

Just because both parties are obnoxious does not mean that they actually like each other.  After all, in a lots of cases, they are chasing the same voters.

 

46 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

The tories are now the "brexit" party they dont need him

It could be that the potential threat of the Brexit Party standing candidates will influence the Tories manifesto position on Brexit.

Too weak and Farage would be encouraged/compelled to offer an alternative; too strident and the Tories risk siphoning votes to the LibDems.

 

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He also spent Monday and Tuesday morning having a complete meltdown about the prospect of a election, calling the SNP and Lib Dems Boris little helpers, before Corbyn humiliated him by also backing it, so I'm guessing he doesn't fancy his chances much.


Well he’s pretty much right there. Corbyn would never have backed the election if he wasn’t boxed into it by the SNP and Lib Dems - who then ultimately abstained on the final vote because it was a whole three days later than they wanted.

Both traded keeping Boris Johnson in a box for the next couple of years for a probable hard Brexit, potentially No Deal, and 10-15 more MPs. I can almost get it from the SNP with an indyref the name of the game, but I’m utterly bewildered by the Lib Dems.
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Well he’s pretty much right there. Corbyn would never have backed the election if he wasn’t boxed into it by the SNP and Lib Dems - who then ultimately abstained on the final vote because it was a whole three days later than they wanted.

Both traded keeping Boris Johnson in a box for the next couple of years for a probable hard Brexit, potentially No Deal, and 10-15 more MPs. I can almost get it from the SNP with an indyref the name of the game, but I’m utterly bewildered by the Lib Dems.
...Unless their internal polling indicates a sizeable soft Tory vote.
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