Voting Intentions

[ICTChris]

What will happen in this election that is completely unpredicted?  At the start of the 2017 campaign, no-one thought Corbyn would do as well as he did (he still lost though) or that the SNP would lose as many seats as they did.

What will happen this time?  the SNP are expected to get seats back, the Lib Dems are expected to make gains.  The Brexit Party won the European elections but UKIP previously couldn't do much in Westminster elections.

[Big Fifer]

I think this depends on a number of things. Whether the Brexit party stands in a lot of Tory constituencies is the key bit, that will haemorrhage Conservative votes for sure and perhaps allow Lab/LD in. You'd have to imagine there'll be some sort of pact in the coming days. I see the Scottish Conservatives are already going big on #UnionistsUnite, so they're the same as last time really with probably a little less Ruth which might cost them a bit.

SNP need to make their stance clear this time, and say a vote for them is a vote for another referendum or something along those lines, not the wishy-washy campaign they ran last time. If they're going to do this, they need to act fast and campaign very hard if they're going to earn the 50+ seats.

As for Labour, well I'm not too sure. They did well in 2017, but you have to expect the meeja will decimate any new radical manifesto they come up with in terms of costs, and their stance of negotiating a deal and handing it back to the people in a referendum doesn't exactly seem to have gone down that well (though that's aided by said meeja trying to make that stance sound more complicated than it is).

Lib Dems? Ach I don't care. I'd like to see Swinson get bodied on camera Clegg-Style. 

This election really is fascinating and nowhere near as simple as folk seem to be making out, and it's probably the most important of my lifetime. Hopefully it gets the engagement it needs, a lot of the less politically enthused will likely be sick of voting on stuff. 

[Suspect Device]

I'd be interested in the voting intentions of the electorate in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.  I'm hoping that 2,518 of them will switch from Tory to Labour.

Scenes in the early hours of December 13th.

Edited October 30, 2019 by Suspect Device

[Granny Danger]

3 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

I'd be interested in the voting intentions of the electorate in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.  I'm hoping that 2,518 of them will switch from Tory to Labour.

Scenes in the early hours of December 13th.

It will be interesting if Johnson abandons his seat for something safer.  He will take a lot of flack if he does but maybe thinks that the Tories have sufficient electoral capital to compensate.

 

[falkirkzombie]

5 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:

SNP need to make their stance clear this time, and say a vote for them is a vote for another referendum or something along those lines, not the wishy-washy campaign they ran last time. If they're going to do this, they need to act fast and campaign very hard if they're going to earn the 50+ seats.

Indyref2 should be the heart of their campaign, if it is i think they can win 50+ seats, if they spend too much time on Brexit i can only see moderate gains, there are many leave supporting SNP folk, and too much of the STOP BREXIT chat will see them stay at home.

[superbigal]

If everyone on here can stop there relatives over 60 years old from voting. We should do quite well as a country.

[Suspect Device]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

It will be interesting if Johnson abandons his seat for something safer.  He will take a lot of flack if he does but maybe thinks that the Tories have sufficient electoral capital to compensate.

 

 

Is that an easy thing to do? Just helicopter him from one to another? He'd get a lot of stick.

Noticed this in the Wikipedia page for his seat. 

Quote

Although the constituency voted to leave the European Union in 2016, an analysis of YouGov polling by Focaldata suggested support for Remain had risen from 43.6% to 51.4% in August 2018

 

 

[falkirkzombie]

Just now, superbigal said:

If everyone on here can stop there relatives over 60 years old from voting. We should do quite well as a country.

Get them signed up for proxy vote, and vote on their behalf..............my Gran still thinks she votes labour.

[coprolite]

No chance I'll be voting SNP. 

Probably vote for the lib dems purely for Brexit reasons. 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

This election could get interesting in Englandshire if Labour goes in really hard on the social and economic fall-out of Brexit.  They don't necessarily have to dispute the 2016 referendum vote, just start to lob some heavy artillery about the future of the currently free-to-access NHS for example - if there is one thing that concentrates the minds of the greedy, grubbing b*****ds who inhabit that country  hardworking families it is the prospect of having to pay for vital services.  They should completely abandon Queensberry Rules and look to sow doubt in people's minds at every opportunity, contrasting the completely notional benefits associated with Brexit with the hard realities which will follow.

[Granny Danger]

15 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

Is that an easy thing to do? Just helicopter him from one to another? He'd get a lot of stick.

Noticed this in the Wikipedia page for his seat. 

 

 

It would not be difficult.  A few Tories with decent majorities not standing again.

[Suspect Device]

8 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

It would not be difficult.  A few Tories with decent majorities not standing again.

Does make him look like he's a bit of a coward. Not sure enough of his own argument if he reckons he cant' hold a 5k majority.

If I was Labour I'd ram that point home at every opportunity.

[Donathan]

Indyref2 should be the heart of their campaign, if it is i think they can win 50+ seats, if they spend too much time on Brexit i can only see moderate gains, there are many leave supporting SNP folk, and too much of the STOP BREXIT chat will see them stay at home.

To play devil’s advocate, the turnout in the 2015 GE in Scotland was 71.1%, down from 84.6% in the 2014 referendum. I’d speculate that “the 13.5%” largely didn’t turn out to back the union, and that they’re mostly younger voters that backed independence.

That means that significantly more than 55% of the voters who voted in 2015 were union supporting, yet the SNP managed 50% of the vote and won 56/59 seats.

This tells me that the SNP enjoyed popular support amongst those who had voted No the year before, perhaps because they trusted Sturgeon to be a voice for Scotland within the union.

This group will be overwhelmingly remain supporting, many will have (like myself) become “reluctant Yessers”, ie People who’s ideal scenario would be to find a way to stay in a union that works for everyone, but have become so pissed off with Brexit and right wing Englanders that they’ve reluctantly accepted independence is the best option.

I worry that going full on independence and ignoring Brexit will lose a lot of these people to the Lib Dems.

[Comrie]

The SNP won't lose this seat so I will vote Green.

[an86]

SNP. My MP was Tom Harris for years. Refreshing to have a representative who now actually does stuff locally and I broadly agree with on most issues. 

[BFTD]

Looking forward to the election flyer for the incumbent in Ochil & South Perthshire. Central Office designs a wonderful line in "here's what I did on my gap year, mum" photo collages for him.

Mind when politicians used to list their achievements, beliefs, that kind of thing?

[D Angelo Barksdale]

[sparky88]

Honestly think the Tories are fucked from both Leave and Remain. They've cancelled Brexit twice now (this hasn't yet been measured in the polls) so will lose votes to Brexit Party. At the same time, remainers will desert the party as they did in 2017, which cost them their majority.

 

 

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, sparky88 said:

Honestly think the Tories are fucked from both Leave and Remain. They've cancelled Brexit twice now (this hasn't yet been measured in the polls) so will lose votes to Brexit Party. At the same time, remainers will desert the party as they did in 2017, which cost them their majority.

 

 

I think people forget how many people who normally vote Tory voted Remain. They won't go to Labour but the Lib Dems could eat into their vote, winning some seats for themselves but also handing some to Labour.

[John Lambies Doos]

I think people forget how many people who normally vote Tory voted Remain. They won't go to Labour but the Lib Dems could eat into their vote, winning some seats for themselves but also handing some to Labour.

You could say same thing in Labour seats ie, they vote lib Dems and let Torys through back door. If Johnson can come to some agreement with Farage then a Tory majority is a shoe in