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The Big Relegation Thread


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28 minutes ago, Squonk said:

The only thing that's true is that your post is ambiguous at best and plain wrong at worst. There are a finite number of post-split points available which cannot conceivably be won by all the clubs down the bottom, given that those clubs only play each other.

Yeah, but he’s not going to admit that he’s wrong talking shite.

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3 hours ago, craigkillie said:


The split means that clubs down the bottom always pick up more points in the latter part of the season.

Couldn't you have just said the bottom six, post split, don't play the old firm (and saved two pages of discussion)?

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Seventh almost always finishes with more points than sixth for that reason. Instead of playing two more games against the old firm and third, you're playing the duff teams around you.  Last year Livingston finished 7th on 49 points, while Dundee Utd finished 4th with 48.

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1 hour ago, Squonk said:

The only thing that's true is that your post is ambiguous at best and plain wrong at worst. There are a finite number of post-split points available which cannot conceivably be won by all the clubs down the bottom, given that those clubs only play each other.

 

41 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Yeah, but he’s not going to admit that he’s wrong talking shite.

We're 22 games in, which means every combination of fixture has been played (call Motherwell v St Mirren a draw for the sake of argument).

If the current bottom 6 is still there at the end of the season and each of them gets exactly the same results in their fixtures to come as they've already got (e.g. Dundee United beat Aberdeen at home and lose twice to St Mirren) this is how it would work out:

St Johnstone: 1.09 PPG in the first 22 games to 1.13 PPG in the last 16

Motherwell: 0.95 to 1.19

Kilmarnock: 0.91 to 0.88

Dundee United: 0.91 to 1.13

St Mirren: 1.27 to 1.38

Ross County: 0.77 to 0.81

5 increases and 1 small decrease. So actually it's perfectly conceivable that every team in the bottom six picks up points at a higher rate in the latter part of the season and most of them will.

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3 hours ago, craigkillie said:


The split means that clubs down the bottom always pick up more points in the latter part of the season.

Maybe, but if St Mirren are in the bottom 6 post split they too will pick up more pts then, which still makes that 9pts cushion hard to make up on them. If they make top 6 then it wont matter, the split makes them safe. 

 

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1 hour ago, Squonk said:

There are a finite number of post-split points available which cannot conceivably be won by all the clubs down the bottom, given that those clubs only play each other.


Apart from the previous excellent post from DC92 already proving my point, it's also worth adding that although there are a finite number of points available, that finite number is still usually going to be larger than the number of points those same teams would take over 5 fixtures each against top half clubs.

There are a total of 30 post-split matches, and in those post-split matches, the clubs in the top six tend to reduce their PPG compared to the first 33 weeks and the clubs in the bottom six tend to increase their PPG compared to the first 33. The reasons behind that should be blindingly obvious.

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18 hours ago, Coventry Saint said:

Thing is, we're actually playing well. Goals are an issue, but there was one goal between us and Hearts over 180 minutes. I genuinely don't fear anyone at home.

I remain unworried, and I'm normally a knickerwetter of the highest order. We'll be fine.

I think we did fairly well via Hearts (especially given Aberdeen's result a few days later) but I'm annoyed we're not further away from the bottom as we've had a decent enough season. I think we should be fine, but it's not impossible to see us drawn into a battle with a few bad results, especially as we're a bit of a thin squad. 

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1 minute ago, craigkillie said:


Apart from the previous excellent post from DC92 already proving my point, it's also worth adding that although there are a finite number of points available, that finite number is still usually going to be larger than the number of points those same teams would take over 5 fixtures each against top half clubs.

There are a total of 30 post-split matches, and in those post-split matches, the clubs in the top six tend to reduce their PPG compared to the first 33 weeks and the clubs in the bottom six tend to increase their PPG compared to the first 33. The reasons behind that should be blindingly obvious.

Sorry, but you're trying to bullshit your way out of admitting to being factually incorrect by utilising DC92's post that contains nothing but ifs, buts and maybe's to back you up. It is also perfectly conceivable that one or more of the bottom six clubs could pick up no points at all post-split, so your specific claim that "the split means that clubs down the bottom always pick up more points in the latter part of the season" is patently incorrect. 

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4 hours ago, Squonk said:

It is also perfectly conceivable that one or more of the bottom six clubs could pick up no points at all post-split, so your specific claim that "the split means that clubs down the bottom always pick up more points in the latter part of the season" is patently incorrect. 


It is impossible for more than one of the bottom six clubs to pick up no points at all post-split.

My post was not about individual clubs, my post was about the collective of bottom six clubs. I don't see any other way to make this point to be honest, I thought it was pretty self-evident. The reason that teams end up in the bottom six is because they have picked up fewer points per game than the teams in the top six, and clearly the average number of points per game between these six clubs must be below the average number of points per game across the league. However, after the split, the average number of points per game for these clubs will naturally increase since this set of 6 clubs will no longer be able to "lose" points to the top six clubs.

The total number of points won by bottom six sides on an average post-split weekend will obviously be higher than the total number of points won by bottom six sides on an average pre-split weekend, because if that wasn't true then those clubs wouldn't be in the bottom six in the first place.

Edited by craigkillie
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5 minutes ago, craigkillie said:


It is impossible for more than one of the bottom six clubs to pick up no points at all post-split.

My post was not about individual clubs, my post was about the collective of bottom six clubs. I don't see any other way to make this point to be honest, I thought it was pretty self-evident. The reason that teams end up in the bottom six is because they have picked up fewer points per game than the teams in the top six, and clearly the average number of points per game between these six clubs must be below the average number of points per game across the league.However, after the split, the average number of points per game for these clubs will naturally increase since this set of 6 clubs will no longer be able to "lose" points to the top six clubs.

The total number of points won by bottom six sides on an average post-split weekend will obviously be higher than the total number of points won by bottom six sides on an average pre-split weekend, because if that wasn't true then those clubs wouldn't be in the bottom six in the first place.

OK, apologies for my misunderstanding the thrust of your point (hence my reference to ambiguity) and of course I acknowledge my schoolboy error that two teams could pick up no points. Doh!

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First half of season. Play good teams twice.

Second half of season. No play good teams twice.

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Literally the only thing giving me hope just now is the fact we’ve got points on the board. If we can shit out an average of a point per game between now and the end of the season - which would represent some absolutely garbage form - we’ll definitely avoid 12th and have a good chance of avoiding 11th - 40 points will almost certainly be too much for 11th to catch.

Once we get past February 5 we won’t have to play Rangers or Celtic again either thankfully.

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1 hour ago, Squonk said:

OK, apologies for my misunderstanding the thrust of your point (hence my reference to ambiguity) and of course I acknowledge my schoolboy error that two teams could pick up no points. Doh!

Some Rangers fans thought they could qualify from their group in third place with 0 points...

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21 hours ago, Coventry Saint said:

Thing is, we're actually playing well. Goals are an issue, but there was one goal between us and Hearts over 180 minutes. I genuinely don't fear anyone at home.

I remain unworried, and I'm normally a knickerwetter of the highest order. We'll be fine.

No way St Mirren are going to be in bother. Matched us home and away (not that we're Man City or anything, but we should comfortably finish third) and could argue they were unlucky not to get the draw at Tynecastle. Far better than most of the other teams in the bottom half of the table, and a couple in the top half, on current form.

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7 hours ago, lennyzer0 said:

No way St Mirren are going to be in bother. Matched us home and away (not that we're Man City or anything, but we should comfortably finish third) and could argue they were unlucky not to get the draw at Tynecastle. Far better than most of the other teams in the bottom half of the table, and a couple in the top half, on current form.

I realistically think we should be aiming at 5th this season, think we can scramble above Aberdeen and Hibs. Home games still to come against Motherwell, County, Hibs, Livi and Killie, if we can win most of them we should hopefully make top 6 at least.

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7 minutes ago, Hendo said:

I realistically think we should be aiming at 5th this season, think we can scramble above Aberdeen and Hibs. Home games still to come against Motherwell, County, Hibs, Livi and Killie, if we can win most of them we should hopefully make top 6 at least.

St Mirren for the top six: you heard it here first!

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10 minutes ago, Hendo said:

I realistically think we should be aiming at 5th this season, think we can scramble above Aberdeen and Hibs. Home games still to come against Motherwell, County, Hibs, Livi and Killie, if we can win most of them we should hopefully make top 6 at least.

Steady on

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