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The Big Relegation Thread


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St Johnstone the only winners last night, quite literally.  The pack above is still not quite safe, especially given the bottom two have a game in hand over three of the four teams above them. Unlikely United and Aberdeen get involved unless either of them 'do a St Johnstone' and lose ten games in a row or something. Feel they're both capable of that right enough, two flaky sides with strange managers.

Dundee now take over the longest winless run in the league baton with eight. Their game with County at the weekend looks a bit must win to me. If they don't get three points in that one their next two league games are at Tynecastle and Parkhead...

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Just now, djchapsticks said:

A win and a draw in our upcoming games against the bottom two and I'll be quite satisfied we're going to be OK.

The lack of Brophy for a medium to long spell worries me, particularly as we're exceptionally light up front now.

Yesterday morning I thought we were probably safe, and had had a pretty good transfer window.

If we've lost Brophy for a couple of months, then out striking options are what looks like a very uninterested/disgruntled Erwin and a young, inexperienced Kiwi.

Mind you, we might have enough points on the board to draw our way to safety.

 

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Fear for us on Saturday.  As Connolly says if we only have a 6 point cushion come the split - which on current form is more than possible - I wouldn't fancy our chances.  Similarly a couple of wins and we're probably safe.  

It's pretty telling that we are only out of top six safety on goal difference but still very afraid of relegation.  No reason why Buddies can't get a win at Hibs and Livi a win against the Dons and then it all looks very scary.  Could have 4 teams on 29 points and then all of a sudden we might be the target for RC and SJ.  I actually agree with the Dees, they're probably down already.

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6 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

30pts the cut off? I think if you reach that you're safe, bottom two with lots to do to reach it.

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County will be getting a bit twitchy with both sides having games in hand. They've been by far the best side of the three so should still be fine. Above that you're looking at sides just a win or two away from apparent safety, they'd need to completely collapse and only pick up 4/5 points in 14 games to be in trouble.

To me it's still a straight shoot out between the bottom two.

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Dundee v County huge. A win for Dundee puts County right in the shit, a win for County virtually scores their safety from 12th.

St Johnstone need to win then say how the land lays. Either be closer to County or further away from Dundee.

Killie went down last season with 36 points. 

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5 hours ago, djchapsticks said:

A win and a draw in our upcoming games against the bottom two and I'll be quite satisfied we're going to be OK.

The lack of Brophy for a medium to long spell worries me, particularly as we're exceptionally light up front now.

I think that might cost us and last night's dropped 2 points were a blow (not that we deserved to win). Had we been 10 points clear of the bottom 2 I'd be more confident, but at 8 points, having lost Brophy it looks very shaky, esp if we lose to St Johnstone in Paisley.

I'd think if any of the 6th to 8th teams 'do a Kilmarnock' from last year then they'll be looking over their shoulders a bit. 

Edited by flyingscot
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1 hour ago, Mark Connolly said:

I love Scottish football. Everybody from 7th down shitting themselves, and you know Aberdeen and Hibs are having a wee look over their shoulders just in case.

Though obviously if it’s Aberdeen, some way will be found to save them, eh Falkirk fans?

Or fucking Motherwell.

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I'm thinking St Mirren are in the shit big time absolutely diabolical  at home now no one to score goals not that Brophy was prolific in the first place think it's going to be another few weeks again without a win and that includes Kelty in the cup.

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Dundee & St. Johnstone looking detached now, I could see St. Johnstone scraping 10th if one of the teams in the bunch hit a bad run but I'll boldly say what no man has said before - Dundee for the drop, St Johnstone for the play-off spot.

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Chances of finishing in the bottom two from 538:

St. Johnstone - 78%
Dundee - 69%
Ross County - 22%
St. Mirren - 12%
Livingston - 10%
Dundee United - 5%
Updated:

Dundee - 87%
St. Johnstone - 79%
Ross County - 11%
St. Mirren - 7%
Livingston - 5%
Dundee United - 4%

Looks like the bottom two are pretty nailed on.
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Another bad day at the office for the terrible two at the bottom. Wins for County, LivI and St Mirren have widened the gap yet further.
Dundee have just played Aberdeen, Livi, St Johnstone, Dundee Utd and County. As easy a run of five games as you are going to get in this league. They haven’t won any of them, just two points from 15. Now the games get tougher for them, Hearts away and Celtic away upcoming. They now really need points from those two games. Barring a miracle Dundee will finish 11th or (more likely) 12th.
St Johnstone had a great chance to reign the pack in today, playing a hopeless United at home. Another 0-0 dirge doesn’t really help them at all. Winnable games for them at Paisley and Aberdeen upcoming though, they will fancy cutting Dundee off after those two. Tenth is still just about reachable for the Saintees, but they need one of the pack to ‘do a Kilmarnock’ and start tanking. Can’t really see a side who looks likely to do that tbh. Meh derby against Kilmarnock in the playoff?

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Dundee the big loser. Home game against the side in 10th and they lose. Picking up just 1 point from recent games v 10th/11th not great and next two fixtures seem ominous.

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32 my new cut off, just because Hibs seem determined to get themselves relegated. It seems pretty clear its still between the bottom two though. Results after the split could be the key.

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Wednesday the next date of interest. Both bottom two sides with tough away days while County have another chance to stretch their legs

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