capt_oats Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, DC92 said: Motherwell could lose every one of their remaining 18 games and still have a reasonable chance of avoiding bottom spot. It's not value if it's definitely not happening. Aye, going by fivethirtyeight, as it stands, there's a <1% chance of Motherwell being relegated. Spoiler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ranaldo Bairn Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, capt_oats said: Aye, going by fivethirtyeight, as it stands, there's a <1% chance of Motherwell being relegated. Hide contents The spread for United is quite something! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 On 31/12/2021 at 12:04, Ric said: And for clarity, here are the positions from the rest of the bottom six.. (click image for zoom) I think it's only counting the pre-split games, which would explain St Mirren dropping from 6th to 7th as that obviously couldn't have happened any later than that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 (edited) 2 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said: I think it's only counting the pre-split games, which would explain St Mirren dropping from 6th to 7th as that obviously couldn't have happened any later than that. Yeah, I think you are right. As a "quick glance" guide it gives an idea of who was doing well and who wasn't in terms of a whole season, but clearly not the run in. Edited January 1 by Ric 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 37 minutes ago, DC92 said: Motherwell could lose every one of their remaining 18 games and still have a reasonable chance of avoiding bottom spot. It's not value if it's definitely not happening. 19 minutes ago, capt_oats said: Aye, going by fivethirtyeight, as it stands, there's a <1% chance of Motherwell being relegated. Reveal hidden contents "reasonable chance", is the operative word there. Isn't that the point with these things? You are making a judgement call based not only on the team involved but the odds being offered. At 250/1 it's the largest jump and clearly from the money already placed, it's the divide between who is likely to be involved in the relegation dog fight and who isn't. As I say, I don't gamble, I see little point in throwing money away. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Ric said: It could very well be. I think as a "quick glance" guide it gives a good idea of who was doing well and who wasn't. Yeah if anything it should probably cause more concern for the midtable teams, there's still a long time left to get dragged into it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Ric said: As I say, I don't gamble. Yeah, we can see that. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said: Yeah if anything it should probably cause more concern for the midtable teams, there's still a long time left to get dragged into it. Even Motherwell? I'll be honest, I posted it (before realising it was only up to the split), simply down to the different "paths" Hamilton and Killie took in getting to the Championship. 15 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said: Yeah, we can see that. Trust me, I take that as a compliment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 We've already got more points than Hamilton got all season last year, and are one win away from 34 which is usually enough to avoid 11th. So, yes I'm pretty comfortable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC92 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 51 minutes ago, Ric said: "reasonable chance", is the operative word there. Isn't that the point with these things? You are making a judgement call based not only on the team involved but the odds being offered. At 250/1 it's the largest jump and clearly from the money already placed, it's the divide between who is likely to be involved in the relegation dog fight and who isn't. As I say, I don't gamble, I see little point in throwing money away. Not really, because that "reasonable chance" is predicated on the extremely unlikely scenario in which they lose every single remaining game. If you take "reasonable chance" as the operative words there then you've definitely missed the point. If you want the value bet then you're looking for 1) something that can realistically happen and 2) something where the bookies' odds are longer than you think they should be. Motherwell finishing 12th fails on 1), but St Mirren finishing bottom at the bookies' implied chance of 6.7% arguably fits both criteria, even though I don't expect it to happen. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie McSquackle Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 While I think the last day's results weren't added in, it still shows the two classic paths to relegation. A Hamilton bumping along the bottom for most of the season, meanwhile Killie did their dying swan act.Not that I think there's any chance of any of them being involved but surely if you see Motherwell as best value at 250/1 you'd be better with Aberdeen or Hibs? Both listed at 500/1 and both below us in the league table. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Alli Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Archie McSquackle said: 6 hours ago, Ric said: Not that I think there's any chance of any of them being involved but surely if you see Motherwell as best value at 250/1 you'd be better with Aberdeen or Hibs? Both listed at 500/1 and both below us in the league table. "as I said, I don't gamble." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ric Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 heh, yeah it's clear I am no gambler. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Girth Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 01/01/2022 at 09:00, AmericanFan said: Had honestly forgotten Killie was basically a mid-table team until falling off a cliff the last 2 months. Bit of a gut-punch for their fans. Plenty of ‘gut’ to punch too! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ludo*1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Massive blow to our survival hopes as Luton recall Corey Panter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Girth Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Ludo*1 said: Massive blow to our survival hopes as Luton recall Corey Panter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanFan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, Girth said: Plenty of ‘gut’ to punch too! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossBFaeDundee Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Big fan of County losing Clarke, it must be said. Surely someone's looking at RCC and Hungbo too... Edited January 2 by RossBFaeDundee -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATLIS Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 55 minutes ago, RossBFaeDundee said: Big fan of County losing Clarke, it must be said. Surely someone's looking at RCC and Hungbo too... All we need is a COVID crisis and Hungbo gets recalled I would imagine. I'm not sure RCC on his own is too much trouble 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spikethedee Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 hours ago, ATLIS said: I'm not sure RCC on his own is too much trouble ^ Clearly not seen our “defence” this season… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.