Jump to content

The Big Relegation Thread


Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, DC92 said:

Motherwell could lose every one of their remaining 18 games and still have a reasonable chance of avoiding bottom spot. It's not value if it's definitely not happening.

Aye, going by fivethirtyeight, as it stands, there's a <1% chance of Motherwell being relegated.

Spoiler

520466285_ScreenShot2022-01-01at12_53_30.thumb.png.a75a40091d1af4ed254b22f996d1e7c9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 31/12/2021 at 12:04, Ric said:

And for clarity, here are the positions from the rest of the bottom six..

UHQdxWW.png

(click image for zoom)

I think it's only counting the pre-split games, which would explain St Mirren dropping from 6th to 7th as that obviously couldn't have happened any later than that.

Screenshot_20220101-130729__01.thumb.jpg.0b2763d7f369c2c89f126b1c51f2a623.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

I think it's only counting the pre-split games, which would explain St Mirren dropping from 6th to 7th as that obviously couldn't have happened any later than that.

Screenshot_20220101-130729__01.thumb.jpg.0b2763d7f369c2c89f126b1c51f2a623.jpg

 

Yeah, I think you are right. As a "quick glance" guide it gives an idea of who was doing well and who wasn't in terms of a whole season, but clearly not the run in.

 

Edited by Ric
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, DC92 said:

Motherwell could lose every one of their remaining 18 games and still have a reasonable chance of avoiding bottom spot. It's not value if it's definitely not happening.

 

19 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

Aye, going by fivethirtyeight, as it stands, there's a <1% chance of Motherwell being relegated.

  Reveal hidden contents

520466285_ScreenShot2022-01-01at12_53_30.thumb.png.a75a40091d1af4ed254b22f996d1e7c9.png

 

"reasonable chance", is the operative word there. Isn't that the point with these things? You are making a judgement call based not only on the team involved but the odds being offered. At 250/1 it's the largest jump and clearly from the money already placed, it's the divide between who is likely to be involved in the relegation dog fight and who isn't.

As I say, I don't gamble, I see little point in throwing money away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ric said:

 

It could very well be. I think as a "quick glance" guide it gives a good idea of who was doing well and who wasn't.

 

Yeah if anything it should probably cause more concern for the midtable teams, there's still a long time left to get dragged into it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

Yeah if anything it should probably cause more concern for the midtable teams, there's still a long time left to get dragged into it.

Even Motherwell? ;)

I'll be honest, I posted it (before realising it was only up to the split), simply down to the different "paths" Hamilton and Killie took in getting to the Championship.

 

15 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Yeah, we can see that.

Trust me, I take that as a compliment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, Ric said:

 

 

"reasonable chance", is the operative word there. Isn't that the point with these things? You are making a judgement call based not only on the team involved but the odds being offered. At 250/1 it's the largest jump and clearly from the money already placed, it's the divide between who is likely to be involved in the relegation dog fight and who isn't.

As I say, I don't gamble, I see little point in throwing money away.

Not really, because that "reasonable chance" is predicated on the extremely unlikely scenario in which they lose every single remaining game. If you take "reasonable chance" as the operative words there then you've definitely missed the point. 

If you want the value bet then you're looking for 1) something that can realistically happen and 2) something where the bookies' odds are longer than you think they should be.

Motherwell finishing 12th fails on 1), but St Mirren finishing bottom at the bookies' implied chance of 6.7% arguably fits both criteria, even though I don't expect it to happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While I think the last day's results weren't added in, it still shows the two classic paths to relegation. A Hamilton bumping along the bottom for most of the season, meanwhile Killie did their dying swan act.
Not that I think there's any chance of any of them being involved but surely if you see Motherwell as best value at 250/1 you'd be better with Aberdeen or Hibs? Both listed at 500/1 and both below us in the league table.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Archie McSquackle said:
6 hours ago, Ric said:

 

Not that I think there's any chance of any of them being involved but surely if you see Motherwell as best value at 250/1 you'd be better with Aberdeen or Hibs? Both listed at 500/1 and both below us in the league table.

"as I said, I don't gamble." 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 01/01/2022 at 09:00, AmericanFan said:

Had honestly forgotten Killie was basically a mid-table team until falling off a cliff the last 2 months. Bit of a gut-punch for their fans.

Plenty of ‘gut’ to punch too!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, RossBFaeDundee said:

Big fan of County losing Clarke, it must be said.

Surely someone's looking at RCC and Hungbo too...

Simon Rex Good Luck GIF by Simon Rex / Dirt Nasty

All we need is a COVID crisis and Hungbo gets recalled I would imagine. I'm not sure RCC on his own is too much trouble

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...