The Big Relegation Thread

[AmericanFan]

Interesting results with Motherwell absolutely getting worked today and United beating the piss out of Livi.

[Munoz]

A win for Saints midweek (difficult game) , and we are safe. Defo.

[Matty-RCFC]

See yous later troops x

[RossBFaeDundee]

On 27/01/2021 at 21:32, RossBFaeDundee said:

Watch your head though for the tangerine anvil.

Fortunately it landed right on the Amber trampoline and has went fleeing up into the atmosphere. Cartoon logic and all that.

Edited February 13, 2021 by RossBFaeDundee

[Lex]

I think it’s worth pointing out the relative strength of the teams at the bottom, especially compared to the last two seasons.
That joke Dundee side of 2019 finished the season with 21 points after 38 games. Ross County currently sit bottom with 23 points after 28 games. Basically, if a side as bad as that Dundee team were, was in the league this season everyone else would already be safe from automatic relegation, with at least nine games to go. Sadly, there isn’t.
Ross County and Accies in 11th and 12th have already matched Hearts total from 30 games last season after 28 and 27 games respectively.
Not sure how much this means, but I would certainly fancy whoever finishes 11th to win the playoff.

[Scotty Tunbridge]

28 minutes ago, Lex said:

I think it’s worth pointing out the relative strength of the teams at the bottom, especially compared to the last two seasons.
That joke Dundee side of 2019 finished the season with 21 points after 38 games. Ross County currently sit bottom with 23 points after 28 games. Basically, if a side as bad as that Dundee team were, was in the league this season everyone else would already be safe from automatic relegation, with at least nine games to go. Sadly, there isn’t.
Ross County and Accies in 11th and 12th have already matched Hearts total from 30 games last season after 28 and 27 games respectively.
Not sure how much this means, but I would certainly fancy whoever finishes 11th to win the playoff.

In terms of quality the Premiership side should always have enough to see off the championship team and it shows given only us and Livi have managed to come up through the playoffs thus far.

However the only reason I slightly fear a play off  this season is the question of will the Premiership team be more tired as a result of actually having played a lot more games than the championship side this time? While usually if it ends up 2nd v 11th they will have played the same number of games. While if it’s 2nd v 11th this time they’ll have played 9 less games.

[RandomGuy.]

As expected, St Johnstone pick up 0 points against Celtic, so league is relatively unchanged...

Games in hand are really annoying me, as its hard to be sure what'll happen.

Thankfully, one will be removed this Wednesday...

Only bottom half fixture could help clear a lot up. St Mirren could return to the top half, while Hamilton could finally remove themselves from the bottom two.

Then the weekends fixtures.

Motherwell v St Johnstone will leave one safe, and the other looking at the pan worrying.

[sergie's no1 fan]

In terms of quality the Premiership side should always have enough to see off the championship team and it shows given only us and Livi have managed to come up through the playoffs thus far.
However the only reason I slightly fear a play off  this season is the question of will the Premiership team be more tired as a result of actually having played a lot more games than the championship side this time? While usually if it ends up 2nd v 11th they will have played the same number of games. While if it’s 2nd v 11th this time they’ll have played 9 less games.

Championship clubs don't play much more than the Premiership club anyway. That's a myth. We play 38, they play 36. 3rd and 4th play 2 bringing them up to 38 and then play 2nd place team which brings them to 38 and 40 games respectively.

So if 3rd/4th place make the final they have played 2 more games than the Prem team, which is fair enough given they didn't finish in the top 2.

[capt_oats]

6 minutes ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

Championship clubs don't play much more than the Premiership club anyway. That's a myth. We play 38, they play 36. 3rd and 4th play 2 bringing them up to 38 and then play 2nd place team which brings them to 38 and 40 games respectively.

So if 3rd/4th place make the final they have played 2 more games than the Prem team, which is fair enough given they didn't finish in the top 2.

Aye but it's a shortened season for the Championship this year. They're only playing 27 games. Which I'd guess is the point that @Scotty Tunbridge is making.

Edited February 14, 2021 by capt_oats

[Rbon]

I don't think we'll see much difference in the playoffs we'll still have the case where a team who finishes 3rd/4th will have to play 6 games in about 18 days if their going to win the playoffs. 

[sergie's no1 fan]

Aye but it's a shortened season for the Championship this year. They're only playing 27 games. Which I'd guess is the point that [mention=14779]Scotty Tunbridge[/mention] is making.

Aye, this season they will have a better advantage with the lesser amount of games played, depending when they are actually due to finish up. If they finish up 2 months before the Premiership ends they will be very rusty. In seasons past it's a total myth though.

[RandomGuy.]

5 minutes ago, Rbon said:

I don't think we'll see much difference in the playoffs we'll still have the case where a team who finishes 3rd/4th will have to play 6 games in about 18 days if their going to win the playoffs. 

As they should.

Ridiculous a team finishing in mid-table can get promoted at all.

Edited February 14, 2021 by RandomGuy.

[Arch Stanton]

On 12/02/2021 at 01:33, YassinMoutaouakil said:

It appears that PointsGate has totally broken the predictor table a few of us start to use around about this time of year, which has decided to start randomly chucking us points instead. 

They've kept the 3-0 wins and 6 points awarded to Motherwell but not the goals and points awarded to Hamilton (see weeks 10 and 11).

[Mark Connolly]

4 hours ago, Lex said:

I think it’s worth pointing out the relative strength of the teams at the bottom, especially compared to the last two seasons.
That joke Dundee side of 2019 finished the season with 21 points after 38 games. Ross County currently sit bottom with 23 points after 28 games. Basically, if a side as bad as that Dundee team were, was in the league this season everyone else would already be safe from automatic relegation, with at least nine games to go. Sadly, there isn’t.
Ross County and Accies in 11th and 12th have already matched Hearts total from 30 games last season after 28 and 27 games respectively.
Not sure how much this means, but I would certainly fancy whoever finishes 11th to win the playoff.

Since the split was introduced in 2000-01, the bottom team has had the following totals:

Spoiler

00-01 St Mirren 30 (Dundee United 11th with 35, no playoff)
01-02 St Johnstone 21 (Motherwell 11th with 40, no playoff)
02-03 Motherwell 28 (no relegation LOLkirk, Dundee United 11th with 32)
03-04 Partick Thistle 26 (Aberdeen 34, no playoff)
04-05 Dundee 33 (Dunfermline 11th with 34, no playoff)
05-06 Livingston 18 (Dunfermline 11th with 33, no playoff, Falkirk 10th also with 33, Dundee United 9th, also with 33)
06-07 Dunfermline 32 (St Mirren 11th with 36, no play-off)
07-08 Gretna 13 (inc 10 point admin deduction, Kilmarnock 11th with 40, no play-off)
08-09 ICT 37 (St Mirren 11th, also with 37, no playoff)
09-10 Falkirk 31 (Kilmarnock 11th with 33, no play-off)
10-11 Hamilton 26 (St Mirren 11th with 33, no play-off)
11-12 Dunfermline 25 (Hibs 11th with 33, no play-off)
12-13 Dundee 30 (St Mirren 11th with 41, no play-off)
13-14 Hearts 23 (inc 15 point admin deduction, Hibs 11th with 35, lost play-off. Partick Thistle were 10th with 38 and a better goal difference than Hearts)
14-15 St Mirren 30 (Motherwell 11th with 36, won playoff)
15-16 Dundee United 28 (inc 3 point ineligible player deduction, Kilmarnock 11th with 36, won playoff)
16-17 ICT 34 (Hamilton 11th with 35, won playoff)
17-18 Ross County 29 (Partick Thistle 11th with 33, lost playoff. Hamilton in 10th also had 33 but a better GD)
18-19 Dundee 21 (St Mirren 11th with 32, won playoff)
19-20 Hearts 23 (after 30 games, Hamilton 11th with 27, also after 30 games, no playoff)

TLDR, but in 20 seasons, the bottom team has only reached 32 points on 4 occasions, and the highest relegated total was 37, with the next highest being 34.

In terms of avoiding 2nd bottom, a team reaching 37 points has only finished 11th on 4 occasions, although that time they avoided relegation on goal difference (St Mirren 08-09), and the other 3 times, the totals were 40 twice and 41 (St Mirren in 12-13). The highest 11th place total since the playoff was introduced is 36 (Motherwell in 14-15 and Killie in 15-16).

On 3 occasions, the team in 11th finished there on GD (St Mirren 08-09, same points as 12th; Thistle 17-18, same as 10th; and Dunfermline in 05-06, same points as 9th). If you added Hearts' points deduction in 13-14 back on, Hibs would have been relegated automatically on 35, and Hearts would have been in the play-off with 38, same as Thistle but a poorer GD.

Basically, 33 points is normally enough to avoid automatic relegation, and 37 to avoid 11th. 38 has always avoided automatic relegation, and 42 has always avoided 11th, while 37 has always avoided the play-off since it was introduced

[Scotty Tunbridge]

1 hour ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

Championship clubs don't play much more than the Premiership club anyway. That's a myth. We play 38, they play 36. 3rd and 4th play 2 bringing them up to 38 and then play 2nd place team which brings them to 38 and 40 games respectively.

So if 3rd/4th place make the final they have played 2 more games than the Prem team, which is fair enough given they didn't finish in the top 2.

 

1 hour ago, capt_oats said:

Aye but it's a shortened season for the Championship this year. They're only playing 27 games. Which I'd guess is the point that @Scotty Tunbridge is making.

This. I thought what I had said was prettty obvious.

[sergie's no1 fan]

This. I thought what I had said was prettty obvious.

Yeah I knew what you meant bud.

I was having a side rant about how in normal circumstances the Championship teams have to play way more games when it's not really true, this season should help the Championship teams a bit more with it not being as 'gruelling' on them.

I see they finish the season on the 30th of April. We are normally the week after, that will be when the play offs kick off for the lower league teams then.

[LIVIFOREVER]

2 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

As they should.

Ridiculous a team finishing in mid-table can get promoted at all.

Hasn't happened yet though, and doubt it will. You really have to finish 2nd to have any chance at all, and avoid the first 2 legs of the play offs, it was a grueling 4 games when we came up, players out injured not making it, and other carrying knocks, bruises, and in Miller's case, a black eye too. Doubt we'd have made it if we had played 2 more games.

[Mvondo_the_great]

On 13/02/2021 at 17:10, Szamo's_Ammo said:

Hamilton doing it again. Seems the improved performance against Sevco may not have been a one off.

Will feel completely comfortable if United get another couple of points before the split but we have a tough last 4 games. Rangers(A) Killie(A), Celtic(H) and Aberdeen(H).

Would be good to see Killie or Motherwell relegated for a change.

We will beat Aberdeen. Draw or beat killie. Lose the other two.

[YassinMoutaouakil]

2 hours ago, Arch Stanton said:

They've kept the 3-0 wins and 6 points awarded to Motherwell but not the goals and points awarded to Hamilton (see weeks 10 and 11).

They've given us an additional 3 on top of the 6 as well. I think they're counting the win over Killie in midweek as a win in the fixture we're still to play against them.

[accies1874]

Hasn't happened yet though, and doubt it will. You really have to finish 2nd to have any chance at all, and avoid the first 2 legs of the play offs, it was a grueling 4 games when we came up, players out injured not making it, and other carrying knocks, bruises, and in Miller's case, a black eye too. Doubt we'd have made it if we had played 2 more games.

How could you forget this?