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The Big Relegation Thread


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Livi's current 4th place feels a bit odd given Hibs and Aberdeen walloped us 4-0 and 5-0, respectively. I'll be surprised if we're still 4th come the season end. Dropping out the Top 6 is very possible but relegation would probably take a major change from the current circumstances. Can't really comment on other teams as don't watch them enough. For example, Motherwell have beaten and drawn with us so looked quite good to me but then they've obviously underperformed elsewhere. 

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10 hours ago, Hendo said:

I realistically think we should be aiming at 5th this season, think we can scramble above Aberdeen and Hibs. Home games still to come against Motherwell, County, Hibs, Livi and Killie, if we can win most of them we should hopefully make top 6 at least.

As do I, but then there is no reason that another 3 or 4 sides in the league won't be aiming there as well. 

Top 6 is definitely in sight but only if the away form improves. 

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11 hours ago, FreedomFarter said:

Livi's current 4th place feels a bit odd given Hibs and Aberdeen walloped us 4-0 and 5-0, respectively. I'll be surprised if we're still 4th come the season end. Dropping out the Top 6 is very possible but relegation would probably take a major change from the current circumstances. Can't really comment on other teams as don't watch them enough. For example, Motherwell have beaten and drawn with us so looked quite good to me but then they've obviously underperformed elsewhere. 

Don't worry. Livi will continue to pick up points from the likes of Ross County and Kilmarnock while we continue to shit the bed against them.

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On 19/01/2023 at 18:51, Coventry Saint said:

Thing is, we're actually playing well. Goals are an issue, but there was one goal between us and Hearts over 180 minutes. I genuinely don't fear anyone at home.

I remain unworried, and I'm normally a knickerwetter of the highest order. We'll be fine.

St Mirren will be 100% ok. 

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On 21/01/2023 at 00:01, FreedomFarter said:

Livi's current 4th place feels a bit odd given Hibs and Aberdeen walloped us 4-0 and 5-0, respectively. I'll be surprised if we're still 4th come the season end. Dropping out the Top 6 is very possible but relegation would probably take a major change from the current circumstances. Can't really comment on other teams as don't watch them enough. For example, Motherwell have beaten and drawn with us so looked quite good to me but then they've obviously underperformed elsewhere. 

For both the Aberdeen and Hibs games we went down to  ten men fairly early on so I'm not sure you can take too much from them.

February is our really challenging month particularly if you start it from  29th Jan with Hearts. Both the old firm; Aberdeen away and a somewhat resurgent (well battling if not actually getting the results) Kilmarnock. If we can maybe get six points that I'll be happy - actually five points would probably still be more than acceptable.

Edit - my auto correct wanted to replace Kilimanjaro for Kilmarnock - maybe it knows something I don't?

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23 hours ago, Sortmeout said:

St Mirren will be 100% ok. 

Honestly, County’s 3-2 win massively flattered St Mirren.  I came away from that game thinking County would be fine.  I wouldn’t rule them out at all.   

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On 21/01/2023 at 00:01, FreedomFarter said:

Livi's current 4th place feels a bit odd given Hibs and Aberdeen walloped us 4-0 and 5-0, respectively. I'll be surprised if we're still 4th come the season end. Dropping out the Top 6 is very possible but relegation would probably take a major change from the current circumstances. Can't really comment on other teams as don't watch them enough. For example, Motherwell have beaten and drawn with us so looked quite good to me but then they've obviously underperformed elsewhere. 

I’m pretty sure both those big defeats were 0-0 with 11 men and the Aberdeen game included 2 penalties. I think they were freak results. 
 

The Motherwell defeat was also that ghost handball, pre-VAR, against Montano. 
 

A bad wee run could see us drop out of the top 6. It’s really on a knife edge until the split. Every single game could go either way I think. 

Edited by crispy
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On 20/01/2023 at 13:26, DC92 said:

 

We're 22 games in, which means every combination of fixture has been played (call Motherwell v St Mirren a draw for the sake of argument).

If the current bottom 6 is still there at the end of the season and each of them gets exactly the same results in their fixtures to come as they've already got (e.g. Dundee United beat Aberdeen at home and lose twice to St Mirren) this is how it would work out:

St Johnstone: 1.09 PPG in the first 22 games to 1.13 PPG in the last 16

Motherwell: 0.95 to 1.19

Kilmarnock: 0.91 to 0.88

Dundee United: 0.91 to 1.13

St Mirren: 1.27 to 1.38

Ross County: 0.77 to 0.81

5 increases and 1 small decrease. So actually it's perfectly conceivable that every team in the bottom six picks up points at a higher rate in the latter part of the season and most of them will.

Good post, but if we call the Motherwell - St Mirren game a draw to even the amount of games up then Hibs would replace St Mirren in the bottom 6.

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6 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

Good post, but if we call the Motherwell - St Mirren game a draw to even the amount of games up then Hibs would replace St Mirren in the bottom 6.

They would just now, but if that game is a draw and both teams get the same results in games 23-33 as they did in games 1-11 then Hibs would be ahead on goal difference at the split.

Anyway, regardless of which games you pick, you'll see the same pattern.

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St Mirren look a bit like us under Robinson where they'll eke out wins regularly enough that they'll never be in serious danger of going down but he's not a good enough manager to really achieve anything in the league over 38 games.

I'd take that at Fir Park now, tbf.

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23 hours ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

St Mirren look a bit like us under Robinson where they'll eke out wins regularly enough that they'll never be in serious danger of going down but he's not a good enough manager to really achieve anything in the league over 38 games.

I'd take that at Fir Park now, tbf.

I think St Mirren will be fine but one thing Robinson had a habit with us each season was that he would go on a really enjoyable runs of results then we'd go right off the rails or vice versa. He is still managing to churn out draws atm and they have recorded some decent results against both Rangers and Celtic, four precious points they probably weren't expecting to get. Comparing runs, after the Buddies beat Dundee United in late October they have lost four, drawn five and won once, this is probably Robinsons blip we will no doubt help rectify on Saturday. In the same time we have played a game less but won once, lost four and drawn five, we threw away precious points in the Livi, Killie and County games in the last month. Some interesting fixtures in the next two or three weeks as Killie play United in a double header as well as County, Motherwell have a St Mirren double header and games against off form St Johnstone and Aberdeen. 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Cloontang said:

I think St Mirren will be fine but one thing Robinson had a habit with us each season was that he would go on a really enjoyable runs of results then we'd go right off the rails or vice versa. He is still managing to churn out draws atm and they have recorded some decent results against both Rangers and Celtic, four precious points they probably weren't expecting to get. Comparing runs, after the Buddies beat Dundee United in late October they have lost four, drawn five and won once, this is probably Robinsons blip we will no doubt help rectify on Saturday. In the same time we have played a game less but won once, lost four and drawn five, we threw away precious points in the Livi, Killie and County games in the last month. Some interesting fixtures in the next two or three weeks as Killie play United in a double header as well as County, Motherwell have a St Mirren double header and games against off form St Johnstone and Aberdeen. 

 

 

Yeah, he's probably just a good midtable Premiership manager in reality, but he achieves this by making you look like title contenders for 5 months then losing 10 in a row, or vice versa. Makes for interesting seasons, at least. 

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