The Big Relegation Thread

[YassinMoutaouakil]

2 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

Us and Dundee would need to be gaining 9+ points on anyone above County to drag them into it, in 11/12 games. First goal is probably hitting 33 points before the split, which requires both sides to pick up 3 or more wins in the next 6/7 games.

I'm intrigued to see how certain teams would react if they find themselves within 4 points of 11th headed into the split, mind you. 

In a weird way I reckon we're the most at risk of anyone outside of the bottom 3. Everyone's aware of how lopsided our fixture have been this season, and the assumption is that we just need to weather this storm until we pick up points when we have a more favourable run in March/April. I think this will probably happen and we'll just about squeak top half, but if it doesn't then the wheels will have well truly came off and we'd be going into the split most likely bottom of the 2022 form tables.

Like I say, I reckon we'll be fine, but our route to imploding looks clearer than anyone else's right now.

[Sonam]

4 hours ago, Bobby_F said:

Always find it hard to be on the optimistic side when thinking about Saints, but if we can somehow get a win against Dundee tomorrow I think we’ll be play offs at worst.

Hopefully we’ll be nowhere near that, but it’s an incredibly tight league, and County, Dundee and Saintees have all had some very good results and decent performances recently.

Certainly hope St. Mirren beat Dundee at Dens tomorrow, would make things way simpler for County.

Yet, for the life of me just can't see anything but a home win. Too much disruption with all the changes at St. Mirren.  Hope Robinson / Naismith / Brown in place for it, just think Dundee more up or this and will want it far more

[Ron Aldo]

.
Dundee United & Hibs will be well safe sadly, too much quality and squad depth. Don't think St. Mirren / Motherwell as good, despite this being a 'great' season so far.
Aberdeen surely too big to fall into this. St. Mirren better get the new manager choice right, otherwise they could be in danger. Can see St. Johnstone and County get few wins on the table. Maybe too late for Dundee, but County will score goals still. Saturday is massive for County, home to St. Johnstone. 

We're on 34 points. The most points needed to avoid the play-off position since they were brought in is 37. That leaves us needing 1 win in 11.

As shite as we've been recently I'm confident we'll be nowhere near the bottom 2 at any point.

[Billy Jean King]

We're on 34 points. The most points needed to avoid the play-off position since they were brought in is 37. That leaves us needing 1 win in 11.

As shite as we've been recently I'm confident we'll be nowhere near the bottom 2 at any point.

This exactly. Everyone above County is basically 3/4/5 points from historical safety. Add in that Dundee, Fakes and County will all take points off each other and the sheer number of teams above them doing likewise and it's basically wishful thinking. At absolute best for them 1 team MIGHT go into a tail spin but it seems unlikely this will develop into a 4/5/6 team scrap.

[Mark Connolly]

1 hour ago, Billy Jean King said:

At absolute best for them 1 team MIGHT go into a tail spin but it seems unlikely this will develop into a 4/5/6 team scrap.

Which raises the question of which team collapsing would provide maximum hilarity?

I'd go for Aberdeen

[Billy Jean King]

Which raises the question of which team collapsing would provide maximum hilarity?
I'd go for Aberdeen

I genuinely don't see it happening at all. Motherwell and Aberdeen on poor runs but far too many teams above the bottom 2 all taking points against each other will most likely see them all ok.

[welldaft]

10 hours ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

In a weird way I reckon we're the most at risk of anyone outside of the bottom 3. Everyone's aware of how lopsided our fixture have been this season, and the assumption is that we just need to weather this storm until we pick up points when we have a more favourable run in March/April. I think this will probably happen and we'll just about squeak top half, but if it doesn't then the wheels will have well truly came off and we'd be going into the split most likely bottom of the 2022 form tables.

Like I say, I reckon we'll be fine, but our route to imploding looks clearer than anyone else's right now.

I can see the logic in some ways. We are hoping when we come to play the last 5 fixtures pre split they are arguably against weaker sides. Certainly compared to Celtic and Rangers in any case. 

There is no guarantee this will happen. When you factor in new Managers at Dundee and St Mirren who happen to be ex Motherwell Managers with an extra incentive to show up against their old club. St Johnstone’s upturn in form and Livi being Livi at home. 

That said we do have one of the best home records in the league and 3 of these games are at home. In our last two games against Aberdeen we comfortably won one and comfortably drew the other. Are Aberdeen any great shakes. No, but they are no worse than the 5 teams who we play shortly. 

We will get nothing from Ibrox apart for another negative impact on the goal difference column. But after that I would target 7/8/9 points which would have us 40+ come the split. May not be enough for top 6 but should see us comfortably ahead come the split. 

Still having been 4th for quite a while imho it would be a failure to miss out on (Europe) assuming that is 4th or 5th place. I anticipate top 6 by a whisker but likely 6th place is where we will end up with Hibs and DDee Utd likely to finish above us. 

Edited February 22, 2022 by welldaft

[Insaintee]

1 hour ago, Mark Connolly said:

Which raises the question of which team collapsing would provide maximum hilarity?

I'd go for Aberdeen

Far be it for me to wish ill on Jim Goodwin 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But yeah that would be funny

[PauloPerth]

16 hours ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

In a weird way I reckon we're the most at risk of anyone outside of the bottom 3. Everyone's aware of how lopsided our fixture have been this season, and the assumption is that we just need to weather this storm until we pick up points when we have a more favourable run in March/April. I think this will probably happen and we'll just about squeak top half, but if it doesn't then the wheels will have well truly came off and we'd be going into the split most likely bottom of the 2022 form tables.

Like I say, I reckon we'll be fine, but our route to imploding looks clearer than anyone else's right now.

I could see Motherwell sliding down a bit as well on current form and now you’re without Watt.  Motherwell often have seasons like Saints in that results wise they are excellent in one half but dreadful in the other. We’ve been like that for the past 3-4 seasons.  Hopefully this season is the same or we’re doomed.
 

But I said the Paisley pandas looked to be a candidate for a slide last season around January as they were in poor form, but in the very next game they went to Tannadice and spanked Utd 5-1!

[ATLIS]

11 hours ago, welldaft said:

When you factor in new Managers at Dundee and St Mirren who happen to be ex Motherwell Managers with an extra incentive to show up against their old club. St Johnstone’s upturn in form and Livi being Livi at home. 

 

Our home form is relatively shite. We actually have a better away form at the minute and we seriously struggle against Motherwell every time we play them

[Roland]

I can't see the Championship play off team defeating the Premier team this year in final.

Therefire think championship title winners going up this season, let's face it will be Killie in the end.

Arbroath would have best chance in play off route, Arbroath v Dundee would be some final watch!! Reckon they won't do it though.

[Yorick]

2 hours ago, Roland said:

I can't see the Championship play off team defeating the Premier team this year in final.

Therefire think championship title winners going up this season, let's face it will be Killie in the end.

Arbroath would have best chance in play off route, Arbroath v Dundee would be some final watch!! Reckon they won't do it though.

Think also only 1 team will be promoted from Championship this year, can see the Premier team easily dealing with play off final. Even Dundee if fall in play off placebwill coast it. 

Hope Arbroath do it, but can't see past Killie winning title,

That relegation place, too early to say. Dundee hopefully. Let's see how long St. Johnstone's recent form lasts, bet they lose this weekend.

[Durnford]

Play-offs are a tough call for a championship side. Coming at the end of a tough season; another two or four "cup-finals" put an incredible strain on the leaner squads. 

Dick Campbell has done an amazing job with Arbroath but squad is probably significantly smaller than the likes of Killie or ICT for example.

True; the premiership side in the play-offs will presumably be low on morale at the end of a losing streak; but any manager worth his salt should use every trick in the book to buck the side up for one last push. Unfortunately in the world of PCA that might not be as easy as it seems; some players may see job security a securing a role with another club prior to the drop; if that's the case can they really be trusted to put everything on the line for a club they're leaving.

All in all; if the premiership team face Killie, with all their resources, then I think they'll lose. If its Raith or Partick then the Premiership side must definitely have the edge. ICT or Arbroath are definitely too close to call IMO. 

[Ric]

4 hours ago, Roland said:

I can't see the Championship play off team defeating the Premier team this year in final.

At this point in the league last year, did you see Killie dropping like a stone and for it to be Dundee not just to come through the playoff deciders but to win the playoff final too?

 

[RandomGuy.]

3 minutes ago, Ric said:

At this point in the league last year, did you see Killie dropping like a stone and for it to be Dundee not just to come through the playoff deciders but to win the playoff final too?

 

On this day last season they were one point off the bottom and had just lost their 8th game in a row.

Id be surprised if many people thought they would be comfortably safe.

[Ric]

4 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

On this day last season they were one point off the bottom and had just lost their 8th game in a row.

Id be surprised if many people thought they would be comfortably safe.

I appreciate the signs were there. I'm not sure about you, but for me, round about this time last year I certainly didn't expect the Killie/Dundee swap. I expected the former to improve and I never expected McPake to get them across the line in the Championship.

Edited February 23, 2022 by Ric

[LIVIFOREVER]

On 21/02/2022 at 22:14, RandomGuy. said:

Us and Dundee would need to be gaining 9+ points on anyone above County to drag them into it, in 11/12 games. First goal is probably hitting 33 points before the split, which requires both sides to pick up 3 or more wins in the next 6/7 games.

I'm intrigued to see how certain teams would react if they find themselves within 4 points of 11th headed into the split, mind you. 

If we fail to make the top 6 then i hope we've just narrowly missed out and have already enough points on the board to stay away from the bottom table scrap, we've been pretty poor after the split, top half or bottom, we haven't picked up many points in the last 5 games.

2 draws and 3 defeats when we finished 9th in our first season up.

2nd season we were saved from having to play the final 8 games and finished 5th.

3rd season we went into the split 5th, and dropped to 6th with 4 defeats and a draw.

[Durnford]

2 hours ago, LIVIFOREVER said:

If we fail to make the top 6 then i hope we've just narrowly missed out and have already enough points on the board to stay away from the bottom table scrap, we've been pretty poor after the split, top half or bottom, we haven't picked up many points in the last 5 games.

2 draws and 3 defeats when we finished 9th in our first season up.

2nd season we were saved from having to play the final 8 games and finished 5th.

3rd season we went into the split 5th, and dropped to 6th with 4 defeats and a draw.

Option A: Dundee win tonight and beat us on Saturday and its game on.

Option B: Dundee lose tonight and we beat them on Saturday and its good night Vienna.

Well Cilla; I'll go for option "B" please.

 

 

[LIVIFOREVER]

32 minutes ago, Durnford said:

Option A: Dundee win tonight and beat us on Saturday and its game on.

Option B: Dundee lose tonight and we beat them on Saturday and its good night Vienna.

Well Cilla; I'll go for option "B" please.

 

 

Can we have an option C   :  Dundee Draw with St Mirren and we beat Dundee on Sat.

I'd quite like us to be within touching distance of going above St Mirren too.

 

*Just discovered C : without a space comes out like this  

Edited February 23, 2022 by LIVIFOREVER

[ATLIS]

3 hours ago, LIVIFOREVER said:

If we fail to make the top 6 then i hope we've just narrowly missed out and have already enough points on the board to stay away from the bottom table scrap, we've been pretty poor after the split, top half or bottom, we haven't picked up many points in the last 5 games.

2 draws and 3 defeats when we finished 9th in our first season up.

2nd season we were saved from having to play the final 8 games and finished 5th.

3rd season we went into the split 5th, and dropped to 6th with 4 defeats and a draw.

To be fair we downed tools because we knew we were safe in the 1st season

3rd season the heads were totally gone after the cup final, and then the issue of finishing 5th and qualifying for Europe but getting papped out because of no license. It was very convenient to finish 6th that season for certain reasons

Edited February 23, 2022 by ATLIS