The Big Relegation Thread

[DiegoDiego]

Chances of finishing in the bottom two from 538:

St. Johnstone - 78%
Dundee - 69%
Ross County - 22%
St. Mirren - 12%
Livingston - 10%
Dundee United - 5%

[Durnford]

1 hour ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

What the bookies have it.

I don't gamble at all but must admit I was surprise to see Hibs having longer odds than either Motherwell or Aberdeen.

For all three its wasted money (subject to something unforeseen like getting docked points) but I thought at the very least they'd all be on the same odds? Is this more a bookies attempt to get more punters to bet on a long shot?

[Durnford]

1 hour ago, LIVIFOREVER said:

Funny how we see things so differently, i absolutely would've taken us only losing 1-0 against Sevco at Ibrox,  and the ideal result for us was a draw with St Johnstone v Dundee, as we were always likely to lose against Sevco, so minimal damage has been done with them and St Johnstone only gaining 1 point, and our GD only taking a 1 goal hit.

 

I also fancy our chances against Hibs on Saturday, esp without Boyle in their team.

Another interesting one - we've now played Sevco three times so wont face them again (before the split  ). We do however have to play St Johnstone twice; hopefully they wont find their scoring boots in the meantime.

It could, however, become critical if we lose any players in the current window; I imagine there are people looking at Stryjek - we have the Russian boy coming in but he's pretty much an unknown entity at the moment.

[Ric]

12 minutes ago, Durnford said:

I don't gamble at all but must admit I was surprise to see Hibs having longer odds than either Motherwell or Aberdeen.

For all three its wasted money (subject to something unforeseen like getting docked points) but I thought at the very least they'd all be on the same odds? Is this more a bookies attempt to get more punters to bet on a long shot?

It's the bookies though, they don't work on the facts they work on the bets placed so they don't lose money.

[btb]

So Motherwell aside bet365 are going with the current league table - controversial!

2 hours ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

What the bookies have it.

 

[Dons_1988]

Might stick £1 on Aberdeen 

[GAD]

3 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

I think, at best, i can see us winning 5 games in the remaining games. But that's proper optimism at full flow stuff. Realistically it'll be about 3.

Either way anyone who gets over 30pts will avoid 12th.

It's a bit of a cliche, but when you sign loads of players in January it can take a fair bit of time for them to gel and actually start making a difference. As so many teams have shown, two wins in a row can absolutely change your season.

The two times St Mirren have survived after signing a load of players in January, it still took us to mid-fed- start of March to really start winning games.

[RandomGuy.]

2 minutes ago, GAD said:

It's a bit of a cliche, but when you sign loads of players in January it can take a fair bit of time for them to gel and actually start making a difference. As so many teams have shown, two wins in a row can absolutely change your season.

The two times St Mirren have survived after signing a load of players in January, it still took us to mid-fed- start of March to really start winning games.

We've literally only signed defenders this month, they won't be turning our season around.

[Nelly78]

4 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

I think, at best, i can see us winning 5 games in the remaining games. But that's proper optimism at full flow stuff. Realistically it'll be about 3.

Either way anyone who gets over 30pts will avoid 12th.

3 wins is still massively optimistic. Just now, unless we see major changes to the setup and/or personnel, I'm struggling to see us scoring 3 goals between now and the end of the season, let alone winning 3 games.   

[flyingscot]

The season Kearney took over we had 12 points at Christmas and it stayed that way till the middle of February. Dundee were 6 points ahead of us at that point and we ended up with 32 points. It is possible especially with the split. Helped somewhat that Dundee, Hamilton and us were utterly woeful that season - there was a 10 point gap between 9th and 10th.

 

 

[RandomGuy.]

22 minutes ago, flyingscot said:

The season Kearney took over we had 12 points at Christmas and it stayed that way till the middle of February. Dundee were 6 points ahead of us at that point and we ended up with 32 points. It is possible especially with the split. Helped somewhat that Dundee, Hamilton and us were utterly woeful that season - there was a 10 point gap between 9th and 10th.

 

 

On this day, that season, you were a point off 11th and 2 points off 10th.

We're 2 off 11th and 6 off 10th and have failed to beat both sides in our last meetings.

[Coventry Saint]

37 minutes ago, flyingscot said:

The season Kearney took over we had 12 points at Christmas and it stayed that way till the middle of February. Dundee were 6 points ahead of us at that point and we ended up with 32 points. It is possible especially with the split. Helped somewhat that Dundee, Hamilton and us were utterly woeful that season - there was a 10 point gap between 9th and 10th.

I feel like that is largely underrated as an escape, beyond Saints fans, of course. I still cant quite make sense of how we stopped up.

[Lex]

I feel like that is largely underrated as an escape, beyond Saints fans, of course. I still cant quite make sense of how we stopped up.

We were saved by one of the worst top flight sides of all time. Dundee finished 12th on 21 points that year.
Ross County are currently in 10th place with 21 points and have 16 games left to play. ICT finished bottom in 2017 with 34 points. Even the terrible Accies side who finished bottom last year got 30 points.
Not even a team as bad as we were could have finished on less than 21 points.
That and a penalty shoot out win against a hopeless United side in the playoff is what did it. We got very lucky.

[GAD]

13 minutes ago, Coventry Saint said:

I feel like that is largely underrated as an escape, beyond Saints fans, of course. I still cant quite make sense of how we stopped up.

I think so as well. We didn't actually have a very good team at all. Thinking about it now, Paul McGinn and Magennis would probably get a game for us now from the team that played Dundee United, maybe Hladky as well, with Mullen, McAllister and Flynn on the bench, but that's about it. Obviously Erhahon was on the bench that day as well at 17, but he'd spent most of the season hung out to dry at left back.

We did get very lucky that Dundee were that bad, but it was still some achievement keeping that team up.

Edited January 27, 2022 by GAD

[McG]

7 minutes ago, GAD said:

I think so as well. We didn't actually have a very good team at all. Thinking about it now, Paul McGinn and Magennis would probably get a game for us now from the team that played Dundee United, maybe Hladky as well, with Mullen, McAllister and Flynn on the bench, but that's about it. Obviously Erhahon was on the bench that day as well at 17, but he'd spent most of the season hung out to dry at left back.

We did get very lucky that Dundee were that bad, but it was still some achievement keeping that team up.

Paul McGinn wouldn’t get a game ahead of Fraser and who drops out for Magennis?

Neither of those players would get in our current starting 11, no chance.

[Hoose Rice]

17 minutes ago, McG said:

Paul McGinn wouldn’t get a game ahead of Fraser and who drops out for Magennis?

Neither of those players would get in our current starting 11, no chance.

 

Macgennis is one of our best players.  Of course he would get a game for St Mirren  

[Wilbur]

Bottom of the league is already sorted.

St Johnstone are capable of mounting a recovery. 

Dundee aren't. 

Dundee have created completely the wrong squad for a relegation dogfight. McPake has assembled a team with too many overpaid, over-the-hill, Billy-Big-Baws players, like Griffiths / Adam / McGowan et al. Take the money and retire.

After Dundee get relegated they won't even have built themselves a platform for a promotion challenge. 

Dire times ahead for the dark blues !!!!

[Lex]

 
Macgennis is one of our best players.  Of course he would get a game for St Mirren  

I see he’s not been in the match day squad for a while. Take it he’s injured again?
Nice fella and a decent player, but probably the most injury prone footballer I’ve ever seen at Saints.

[TheScarf]

8 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Bottom of the league is already sorted.

St Johnstone are capable of mounting a recovery. 

Dundee aren't. 

Dundee have created completely the wrong squad for a relegation dogfight. McPake has assembled a team with too many overpaid, over-the-hill, Billy-Big-Baws players, like Griffiths / Adam / McGowan et al. Take the money and retire.

After Dundee get relegated they won't even have built themselves a platform for a promotion challenge. 

Dire times ahead for the dark blues !!!!

Wot.

They'll just sign a bunch of Premiership quality guys in their early 30's on massive wages again to bounce straight back up.

[McG]

33 minutes ago, Hoose Rice said:

 

Macgennis is one of our best players.  Of course he would get a game for St Mirren  

It’s Magennis mate, that’s lovely he is you’re best player but he would struggle to get a game in our midfield at the moment.

 

Thank you