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The Big Relegation Thread


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15 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

Yeah if anything it should probably cause more concern for the midtable teams, there's still a long time left to get dragged into it.

Even Motherwell? ;)

I'll be honest, I posted it (before realising it was only up to the split), simply down to the different "paths" Hamilton and Killie took in getting to the Championship.

 

15 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Yeah, we can see that.

Trust me, I take that as a compliment.

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51 minutes ago, Ric said:

 

 

"reasonable chance", is the operative word there. Isn't that the point with these things? You are making a judgement call based not only on the team involved but the odds being offered. At 250/1 it's the largest jump and clearly from the money already placed, it's the divide between who is likely to be involved in the relegation dog fight and who isn't.

As I say, I don't gamble, I see little point in throwing money away.

Not really, because that "reasonable chance" is predicated on the extremely unlikely scenario in which they lose every single remaining game. If you take "reasonable chance" as the operative words there then you've definitely missed the point. 

If you want the value bet then you're looking for 1) something that can realistically happen and 2) something where the bookies' odds are longer than you think they should be.

Motherwell finishing 12th fails on 1), but St Mirren finishing bottom at the bookies' implied chance of 6.7% arguably fits both criteria, even though I don't expect it to happen.

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While I think the last day's results weren't added in, it still shows the two classic paths to relegation. A Hamilton bumping along the bottom for most of the season, meanwhile Killie did their dying swan act.
Not that I think there's any chance of any of them being involved but surely if you see Motherwell as best value at 250/1 you'd be better with Aberdeen or Hibs? Both listed at 500/1 and both below us in the league table.
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1 hour ago, Archie McSquackle said:
6 hours ago, Ric said:

 

Not that I think there's any chance of any of them being involved but surely if you see Motherwell as best value at 250/1 you'd be better with Aberdeen or Hibs? Both listed at 500/1 and both below us in the league table.

"as I said, I don't gamble." 

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On 01/01/2022 at 09:00, AmericanFan said:

Had honestly forgotten Killie was basically a mid-table team until falling off a cliff the last 2 months. Bit of a gut-punch for their fans.

Plenty of ‘gut’ to punch too!

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55 minutes ago, RossBFaeDundee said:

Big fan of County losing Clarke, it must be said.

Surely someone's looking at RCC and Hungbo too...

Simon Rex Good Luck GIF by Simon Rex / Dirt Nasty

All we need is a COVID crisis and Hungbo gets recalled I would imagine. I'm not sure RCC on his own is too much trouble

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12 hours ago, ATLIS said:

All we need is a COVID crisis and Hungbo gets recalled I would imagine. I'm not sure RCC on his own is too much trouble

Certainly wasn't against us in the last game we played them when Hungbo was missing, his final ball wasn't up to much either. When Hungbo and RCC played in the first game we got torn to pieces.

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3 hours ago, LIVIFOREVER said:

Certainly wasn't against us in the last game we played them when Hungbo was missing, his final ball wasn't up to much either. When Hungbo and RCC played in the first game we got torn to pieces.

Yeah, where Clarke and Hungbo stand out, RCC is more so just an average Premiership Bottom 6 player IMO. He comes up with decent things here and there but he's no better than Forrest for example

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4 hours ago, Spikethedee said:

^ Clearly not seen our “defence” this season…

Don't we have Nouble back for our next game? :D He's spent the season making Championship defenders look like wee boys so could be funny

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Just now, RossBFaeDundee said:

Overrated.

Honestly the way he's being talked up it's very likely. Just nice to be really hyped about a player for once though, as long as he's a more competent Dolly Menga then we'll be fine

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Nouble was good against us in the cup, but never really threatened to score or create anything. All his work done out wide and it seemed relatively easy to stifle him by just playing narrow.

He'll do well holding the ball up and bringing others into it but I wouldn't be expecting him to bag more than a handful of goals at best over a top flight season.

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In regard to Nouble, I went to check the top scorers in the division (image below is from the BBC) and he's not even in the "top ten".

aZapqtd.png

Obviously this doesn't tell the whole story and the fact McKenna has 12 in the same team while Nouble is on 4, suggests he is maybe not deployed as an out and out striker.

I will admit my ignorance here, I've never seen the lad play, so maybe I am missing something.

 

Edited by Ric
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