The Big Relegation Thread

[Rodhull]

12 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Guy usually gets pretty close, but I think its still too early to be sure yet, maybe best to wait until 22 games when everyones played home/away.

Suggests underlying numbers aren't in Countys favour, alongside the actual results, which doesn't bode well for them, and maybe suggests 38/40 is the points target to aim for? 

Christ, finishing 7th sounds amazing right now.

[Girth]

Got to be honest Aberdeen looked toilet yesterday and I actually think we’ll stay up and finish tenth or something.   

[Gianfranco]

I think it will be Ross Downty unless they bin Malky soon.

Although I’ve got visions of the season we beat Rangers 6-1 in the playoff, when County were so far behind at Christmas before buying a whole new team in the January window and going on an incredible run.

[mizfit]

I think it will be Ross Downty unless they bin Malky soon.

Although I’ve got visions of the season we beat Rangers 6-1 in the playoff, when County were so far behind at Christmas before buying a whole new team in the January window and going on an incredible run.

It’s a thought I had too, but the chairman seems determined to keep Malky in the job.

[TheScarf]

52 minutes ago, Gianfranco said:

I think it will be Ross Downty unless they bin Malky soon.

Although I’ve got visions of the season we beat Rangers 6-1 in the playoff, when County were so far behind at Christmas before buying a whole new team in the January window and going on an incredible run.

Apparently MacGregor has reined in the wage bill this season but that’s probably just to offset Mackay’s salary. He’ll be on a hefty wage imo. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I think it will be Ross Downty unless they bin Malky soon.

Although I’ve got visions of the season we beat Rangers 6-1 in the playoff, when County were so far behind at Christmas before buying a whole new team in the January window and going on an incredible run.

Nelms will do the same for Dundee if required - Uncle Roy's chequebook might not save them this year.

Big big match on Wednesday.

[RossBFaeDundee]

2 hours ago, Gianfranco said:

Although I’ve got visions of the season we beat Rangers 6-1 in the playoff, when County were so far behind at Christmas before buying a whole new team in the January window and going on an incredible run.

That's usually our gimmick these days tbh

[Comrie]

3 hours ago, TheScarf said:

Apparently MacGregor has reined in the wage bill this season but that’s probably just to offset Mackay’s salary. He’ll be on a hefty wage imo. 

I dread to think what he's on, seeing as he was on mid six figures with the SFA.

[TheScarf]

12 minutes ago, Comrie said:

I dread to think what he's on, seeing as he was on mid six figures with the SFA.

I was thinking that. He’s obviously taken a pay cut to join County but he’ll still be on a fortune. 

[Lex]

Livi the big winners this weekend. Bottom three looked isolated a few weeks ago.
Out of nowhere Livi win a couple and now the Saintees are in 10th, nervously checking the rear view mirror.
County’s next two games are Dundee and Hibs. Surely Malky can’t survive the international break if he starts the season with 12 games without a win? Hard to see how any manager survives that.

[ATLIS]

That's three years in a row we've had a stinking start, each of those were followed by us kicking on into an incredible run. The previous two ended up in top 6 finishes, I'd take survival now though  

[Coventry Saint]

5 hours ago, Lex said:

Livi the big winners this weekend. Bottom three looked isolated a few weeks ago.
Out of nowhere Livi win a couple and now the Saintees are in 10th, nervously checking the rear view mirror.
County’s next two games are Dundee and Hibs. Surely Malky can’t survive the international break if he starts the season with 12 games without a win? Hard to see how any manager survives that.

Tbf he seems to have survived being outed as a misogynistic racist so he might be ok yet.

[Allroy for Prez]

A couple of wins or a run picking up zero points changes everything. 

Our good start has now pretty much been undone and I dare say it’ll look a shite side worse by the end of the week.

I’m ruling nobody down or safe just yet.

[LIVIFOREVER]

2 hours ago, ATLIS said:

That's three years in a row we've had a stinking start, each of those were followed by us kicking on into an incredible run. The previous two ended up in top 6 finishes, I'd take survival now though  

Our defence still looks dodgy as feck, but at least we're scoring goals now, could go either way still. However it's looking a hell of a lot brighter than it did a couple of games ago.

[Lex]

Everyone’s played everyone then, and I think we have a good idea of how the table is shaping up.
Five games involving the bottom six in this midweek round of fixtures, and four of them finished as draws. No doubt about who the big winner and loser was then.
Dundee, off the back of a couple of decent results, were at home to bottom and winless County.
A win for the Dees would have given them a seven point cushion over 12th and got them into the pack above.
In true Dundee style, they get thumped 0-5.
Malky has a reprieve and County are back in the survival hunt. Any feel good factor at Dens hasn’t lasted long and the knives are back out for McPake. Remarkably, they have a -15 goal difference after 11 games. The second worst goal difference is County, who are on -7.

[PauloPerth]

This could be a much closer battle than previous seasons.

County looked strong favourites but then pull off a tremendous result at Dens. They've generally been fairly close in most of their matches as well from what I can gather and must have been gutted their game was off yesterday, home to a struggling Hibs side with a good chance to keep the momentum going.  You think Dundee will fold, then bounce back with a great win in Paisley.

It looked like there was a big split in the league 3-4 weeks ago, but since then Hibs, St Mirren and Motherwell have been dragged right back into the low pack.  Livi, Dundee and County all gaining points on those clubs. 5 points now separating 7 clubs.

Very much about streaks of wins or losses for most teams so far.

Aberdeen look like they're over their struggles with a superb week, and Hearts and Utd look too strong to get dragged into the pack, and have a decent gap for now, though Hearts have only gained 3 points out a possible 12 and Utd not won in a couple of matches.  The only thing with Utd is I'm not sure about their depth of squad if they lose a key player; Siegrist, Mulgrew, Fuchs or Levitt.  Everything has gone well for their manager so far as well, he's never been put under the serious pressure that comes with a run of bad results, which is bound to happen at some stage.

 

[RandomGuy.]

40s usually the rough target to avoid 11th I think?

I'd say the top 4 are already safe. United arguably just need 6 wins from 26 games to hit that, can't see a collapse of that size tbh, they're too good for that.

[Mark Connolly]

6 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

40s usually the rough target to avoid 11th I think?

I'd say the top 4 are already safe. United arguably just need 6 wins from 26 games to hit that, can't see a collapse of that size tbh, they're too good for that.

I did this earlier in the year

On 14/02/2021 at 16:04, Mark Connolly said:

Since the split was introduced in 2000-01, the bottom team has had the following totals:

  Reveal hidden contents

00-01 St Mirren 30 (Dundee United 11th with 35, no playoff)
01-02 St Johnstone 21 (Motherwell 11th with 40, no playoff)
02-03 Motherwell 28 (no relegation LOLkirk, Dundee United 11th with 32)
03-04 Partick Thistle 26 (Aberdeen 34, no playoff)
04-05 Dundee 33 (Dunfermline 11th with 34, no playoff)
05-06 Livingston 18 (Dunfermline 11th with 33, no playoff, Falkirk 10th also with 33, Dundee United 9th, also with 33)
06-07 Dunfermline 32 (St Mirren 11th with 36, no play-off)
07-08 Gretna 13 (inc 10 point admin deduction, Kilmarnock 11th with 40, no play-off)
08-09 ICT 37 (St Mirren 11th, also with 37, no playoff)
09-10 Falkirk 31 (Kilmarnock 11th with 33, no play-off)
10-11 Hamilton 26 (St Mirren 11th with 33, no play-off)
11-12 Dunfermline 25 (Hibs 11th with 33, no play-off)
12-13 Dundee 30 (St Mirren 11th with 41, no play-off)
13-14 Hearts 23 (inc 15 point admin deduction, Hibs 11th with 35, lost play-off. Partick Thistle were 10th with 38 and a better goal difference than Hearts)
14-15 St Mirren 30 (Motherwell 11th with 36, won playoff)
15-16 Dundee United 28 (inc 3 point ineligible player deduction, Kilmarnock 11th with 36, won playoff)
16-17 ICT 34 (Hamilton 11th with 35, won playoff)
17-18 Ross County 29 (Partick Thistle 11th with 33, lost playoff. Hamilton in 10th also had 33 but a better GD)
18-19 Dundee 21 (St Mirren 11th with 32, won playoff)
19-20 Hearts 23 (after 30 games, Hamilton 11th with 27, also after 30 games, no playoff)

TLDR, but in 20 seasons, the bottom team has only reached 32 points on 4 occasions, and the highest relegated total was 37, with the next highest being 34.

In terms of avoiding 2nd bottom, a team reaching 37 points has only finished 11th on 4 occasions, although that time they avoided relegation on goal difference (St Mirren 08-09), and the other 3 times, the totals were 40 twice and 41 (St Mirren in 12-13). The highest 11th place total since the playoff was introduced is 36 (Motherwell in 14-15 and Killie in 15-16).

On 3 occasions, the team in 11th finished there on GD (St Mirren 08-09, same points as 12th; Thistle 17-18, same as 10th; and Dunfermline in 05-06, same points as 9th). If you added Hearts' points deduction in 13-14 back on, Hibs would have been relegated automatically on 35, and Hearts would have been in the play-off with 38, same as Thistle but a poorer GD.

Basically, 33 points is normally enough to avoid automatic relegation, and 37 to avoid 11th. 38 has always avoided automatic relegation, and 42 has always avoided 11th, while 37 has always avoided the play-off since it was introduced

 

[PauloPerth]

 

Well hello everybody

[Irrational Behaviour]

AFC are back baby. 

3 games against Livi, St Mirren and St J coming up. 

See you on the other side folks.