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The Big Relegation Thread


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10 hours ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

Tbh I think there was exactly one point where we were actual relegation candidates and it's the 7 day period where Lasley was a genuine candidate for the job.

Alexander will comfortably keep us up and I'm pretty sure Robinson would have too.

In hindsight I think Lasley as a genuine candidate ended when the third goal went in against Accies (if not the first). So it's probably about a 2.5 day period.

Watching the 'Inside Motherwell' that covered the week between Robinson resigning and Alexander being appointed Flow pretty much confirmed that the aim was to get the new manager in before the St Mirren game implied that the whole "Lasley to get 4 games" was nonsense (or they filmed the Burrows section after the fact). Either way if the other candidates were indeed Wright and Grayson alongside Alexander you'd have thought that any of them would have got the nod ahead of Lasley on experience alone.

Watching how things have panned out I'm genuinely not sure Robinson would have turned it round. I mean he could have and it's not a slight on him but it feels like he was completely out of ideas. This uptick in form that Alexander has had (with Robinson's starting XI) suggests that the manager was as much a problem as the players. If he hadn't walked when he did there was every chance he'd have lost against Accies and/or St Mirren.

Robinson could have ended up bailing any time in January tbh.

Edited by capt_oats
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Every time I think I've sussed out the bottom half something like this happens.

FWIW I looked at strikers performance over the last 5 seasons, and Hamilton were the only club other than Celtic and County (Boyce) who had their strikers overperforming their xG almost every single season.

Utterly clinical.

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Yeah it's done by the way the fixture list was ordered, rather than when the games were actually played, so postponements etc., take it out of sync with reality.
It's impossible to make without having game weeks to go off, so had to use them. Motherwell were 2 games behind when they dropped to 11th the weekend you beat them, but beat Kilmarnock during the week which I'm sure was scheduled for last year, so those 3pts are added to their total hack when it was meant to be played.
It's not ideal but there's no other way to do it due to clubs playing different amounts of games.

There is another easy way to do it, which is to use the actual dates on the x-axis rather than the pointless concept of matchdays.
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No way Accies finish 12th, that’s for Killie or County.
Can see Accies in 11th then them rinsing some shite like Dunfermline or Dundee in the playoff.
They’re going nowhere.

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Every time I think I've sussed out the bottom half something like this happens.
FWIW I looked at strikers performance over the last 5 seasons, and Hamilton were the only club other than Celtic and County (Boyce) who had their strikers overperforming their xG almost every single season.
Utterly clinical.
This seems mental considering we've only had one decent finisher in years.
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2 minutes ago, craigkillie said:


There is another easy way to do it, which is to use the actual dates on the x-axis rather than the pointless concept of matchdays.

I'd rather that but I couldn't find anywhere that easily showed the league table beside the fixtures in terms of dates, and it was just a muck about to learn the coding, rather than anything serious, so I had no plans to spend hours going between fixtures lists/tables when I could just scrape the data of transfermarkt.

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Just now, accies1874 said:

This seems mental considering we've only had one decent finisher in years.

From memory they all have really low xG, meaning they don't get many chances, but they generally take them.

Of your 4 strikers last season over 800 mins (Ogkompoe, Miller, Oakley, Moyo), only Moyo didn't overperform, and even then he was only 8% under. 

As a strikeforce it was the best at taking its,  few, chances in the league.

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From memory they all have really low xG, meaning they don't get many chances, but they generally take them.
Of your 4 strikers last season over 800 mins (Ogkompoe, Miller, Oakley, Moyo), only Moyo didn't overperform, and even then he was only 8% under. 
As a strikeforce it was the best at taking its,  few, chances in the league.
And Davies was the only decent finisher. It's been a few seasons since anyone scored more than four open play goals, I'm sure, but I'm not surprised that no one's had a high xG.
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2021-02-13_16-56-16.png.53798164b10e4f6d4b1427392ea5a3db.png

Hamilton, doing Hamilton 'hings.

Otherwise Dundee United probably secured their safety, as did St Mirren, while Kilmarnock done as expected.

2021-02-13_16-57-34.png.1bf055e2acea95770cdc589933af46f2.png

38pts the target for safety in my mind, so Dundee United/St Mirren close to removing themselves from the thread. Hamilton now look in the strongest position of the bottom three, Kilmarnock having played the most games maybe the weakest, but Countys goal difference looks like a massive issue for them.

St Johnstone v Celtic tomorrow, so wouldn't expect any change in this table, apart from an extra game added.

Edited by RandomGuy.
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Hamilton doing it again. Seems the improved performance against Sevco may not have been a one off.

Will feel completely comfortable if United get another couple of points before the split but we have a tough last 4 games. Rangers(A) Killie(A), Celtic(H) and Aberdeen(H).

Would be good to see Killie or Motherwell relegated for a change.

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