The Big Relegation Thread

[RandomGuy.]

7 hours ago, DC92 said:

We really don't. Since the move to the current league structure in 2000, the highest number of points the bottom side has managed is 37, so let's say for argument's sake that we need another 24 points to at least finish 11th.

If we get something like:

12/15 at home to the bottom 6

8/15 away to the bottom 6

4/12 against Aberdeen/Motherwell/Hibs/Livi

we will almost certainly avoid 12th and likely 11th as well. That's nowhere near a given, but it's just not true to say we have to win every game against the teams around us.

You only have 9 games left against bottom half sides, including the split. So theres only a possible 27 left from that route.

My sole point is Hearts aren't winning games, while those above them are picking up the odd win here and there. Hearts are, most weeks, losing ground so to gain that back, they need to win all four games in February, otherwise it's likely you'll be heading into the split adrift and needing to win most games.

The teams above you will win games before the end of the season aswell.

Your logic relies on Hearts going from 1 win in their last 16 games, to 7 wins in 16. From 9 losses in the last 16, to 5.

You win all 4 February games, you're left needing to get around 10 points from around 10 games.

[Green Day]

@RandomGuy. Agreed - losing, like winning, is a habit that is difficult to break.

I remember a guy who tried to convince us with the mantra that "we just need one more win" ...............that didnt work out too well 

[sjc]

21 hours ago, tree house tam said:

St Johnstone need to get the right deals done this coming week or we are fucked. 

St Johnstone have been on a steady decline for a couple of years it seems. Mother time catching up with the core of the team that won the cup and did so well in that period.

Don't see many goals in the squad either. 

[RandomGuy.]

8 minutes ago, Green Day said:

@RandomGuy. Agreed - losing, like winning, is a habit that is difficult to break.

I remember a guy who tried to convince us with the mantra that "we just need one more win" ...............that didnt work out too well 

I think they can still do it, tbh, but i dont agree with this idea they dont need to beat all the teams around them. Theres an obsession with this "only 4 points behind" when really you should just set a points target and focus on that, as the team above you will likely be close one week then further away the next etc.

Regardless, it seems agreed Hearts need at least 24pts to finish above 12th. 

24pts from 16 games, over the last 16 games, is what the 4th best team in the league had over that time.

I'm loathe to write them off as I feel like I'd be jinxing it, but that would be a huge turnaround required, and their manager hasnt won a single game since taking charge.

[sjc]

Have I missed an SPFL rule change and Clubs are now being relegated by the "moneyball" rule?

[tree house tam]

41 minutes ago, sjc said:

St Johnstone have been on a steady decline for a couple of years it seems. Mother time catching up with the core of the team that won the cup and did so well in that period.

Don't see many goals in the squad either. 

Let's not fall out mate, just give me your sisters number and we can make up.

[sjc]

2 minutes ago, tree house tam said:

Let's not fall out mate, just give me your sisters number and we can make up.

Your "holiday home" at the Double Dykes won't impress her, you know......

[Coventry Saint]

Seems unfair on Hearts that all their upcoming fixtures are against teams above them in the league.

[Valentino Bolognese]

2 hours ago, sjc said:

Have I missed an SPFL rule change and Clubs are now being relegated by the "moneyball" rule?

To be fair to @RandomGuy, it's fair enough to point out that the team with the worst form this season, and the worst form in over the last 12 months, have 16 games to become top 6 (or better) performers to avoid automatic relegation. 

I'm not suggesting that Hearts are doomed but it highlights just how big a turnaround is needed here. What seems really odd to me is a lot of Hearts fans (not just on here but in real life too) don't seem to think it's as big as issue as fans of St Johnstone, St Mirren, Kilmarnock or Livingston would. The optimisim is admirable but it does seem a bit head in the sand. 

That said it's an absolute crapshoot this year and my gut feel is that Hearts will somehow avoid the drop, I expect by getting past ICT in the playoffs. 

Whatever happens it's surely going to be a very tight spread of points over the bottom 5. 

[Coventry Saint]

12 minutes ago, Valentino Bolognese said:

That said it's an absolute crapshoot this year and my gut feel is that Hearts will somehow avoid the drop, I expect by getting past ICT in the playoffs. 

My hope is that they're going to find themselves just needing a result against Dundee.

I'm not sure if there's any historical precedent for that.

[Valentino Bolognese]

2 minutes ago, Coventry Saint said:

My hope is that they're going to find themselves just needing a result against Dundee.

I'm not sure if there's any historical precedent for that.

Not sure if you're kidding, but it's a situation that could end in tears. 

In any case it would mean that Dundee would have to get through the Championship playoffs which seems rather far-fetched, even though they have Ross Callachan ready to tear up the second half of the season. 

[Coventry Saint]

14 minutes ago, Valentino Bolognese said:

Not sure if you're kidding

Don't worry: it was, very much, a dry dig at 1986.

[Valentino Bolognese]

Just now, Coventry Saint said:

Don't worry: it was, very much, a dry dig at 1986.

Indeed. I hesitated over putting in the capital 'K' or not ...

[Coventry Saint]

Just now, Valentino Bolognese said:

Indeed. I hesitated over putting in the capital 'K' or not ...

Fuxake, I missed that. 

[DC92]

6 hours ago, Green Day said:

@DC92You have 6 matches left against top 6 opposition pre split, or are you just discounting the Celtic, Rangers as dead rubbers?

Dead rubbers.

6 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

You only have 9 games left against bottom half sides, including the split. So theres only a possible 27 left from that route.

 

Nope. We've still got Killie, Hamilton and Ross County at home and St Mirren And St Johnstone away before the split. That's 5 pre-split and 5 after.

In fact, what I was wrong about is we have 6 at home to the bottom 6 and 4 away because we'll be due 3 home games after the split.

So, to amend it:

13/18 at home to bottom 6.

7/12 away to bottom 6.

4/18 against the top 6.

6 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

The teams above you will win games before the end of the season aswell.

Which is why I set a points target based on a likely number to avoid relegation based on all previous seasons.

6 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

Your logic relies on Hearts going from 1 win in their last 16 games, to 7 wins in 16. From 9 losses in the last 16, to 5.

You win all 4 February games, you're left needing to get around 10 points from around 10 games.

We're discussing scenarios whereby Hearts survive and the scenario I've put forward is far likelier to happen than the one you did. I didn't pass any comment on whether we would achieve it or not.

Obviously if we repeat the same form we've had over the season so far then we'll go down. There wouldn't be any point debating anything.

5 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

24pts from 16 games, over the last 16 games, is what the 4th best team in the league had over that time.

You're forgetting that the dynamics of the split mean that we'll have a very disproportionate number of games against the weaker teams in the league. Two thirds of our games are against bottom 6 teams, and over a third are at home to those sides. In the season so far, most of our games have been against the top 6.

Bottom 6 teams usually pick up more points in the second half of the season because of this. For Hamilton to reach 38 points for example, they need another 20 points in 16 games even though they've only got 18 in 22 so far. Similar can be said for St Mirren And St Johnstone. You don't seem to think that's wildly unrealistic.

The point about only being 4 points behind is entirely valid, by the way. If we take 4 points off Hamilton and then better their other results by 1/2 points then we will finish above them. It's as simple as that, but you're tying yourself in knots trying to come up with convoluted explanations as to why we're already doomed.

Edited January 24, 2020 by DC92

[RandomGuy.]

This a table if you only count games between bottom half sides, fwiw.

[staggy1929]

is there a possibility that a team in the top 6 finishes the season on less points than the team in the play offs?

[Aim Here]

15 minutes ago, staggy1929 said:

is there a possibility that a team in the top 6 finishes the season on less points than the team in the play offs?

It's certainly mathematically possible in general. It's mathematically possible for every  team in the bottom 6 other than the tail-end charlie in the automatic relegation slot to finish the season on more points than every team in the top 6.

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Aim Here

[RandomGuy.]

According to Daily Record Hearts have signed Liam Boyce.

So that'll be them out the relegation battle.

[Zing.]

Boyce to Hearts will save them I think.