The Big Relegation Thread

[Comrie]

54 minutes ago, yoda said:

County's next three games after Hearts on Wednesday night are all away: Celtic, Rangers, and Kilmarnock, all within a week. The GD is going to take a hammering at Celtic Park and Ibrox, and we'll likely be on at least -30 by the time of the Livingston game in Dingwall.

We've had a weird season: we're obviously terrible, but have picked up enough points so far to make it look somewhat respectable, and there's been two or three really good performances. The managers get a lot of goodwill because of who they are, and I feel bad to criticise them, but they don't appear to know how to manage a team that isn't the best in the league. A lot of the criticisms levelled at them last season are still applicable this season. If County concede this season they look like downing tools or running out of ideas; last season they almost always found a way to get back into the game - that can mostly be attributed to simply being better than the opposition, but there was a fight and desire that we've rarely seen this season.

I think we'll stay up, and that was always the ambition this season. But two dreadful cup campaigns, and an absolutely abysmal run of form since mid-October, have really sapped my enthusiasm. 

Literally this. 

It was difficult to aim any criticism Ketts and Ferg after a successful league campaign and a challenge cup on top of that, but for vast swathes of last season we flattered to deceive and were given a huge helping hand by the Dundee United board backing Lazslo for so long and Ayr slowly falling away was a huge boost as well. We were lucky in so many games- being outplayed at home by Dundee United and relying on an injury time Jamie Lindsay (god, i miss him) injury time goal to basically secure promotion stands out, as does some of the 2-1 win against Ayr where Ayr just went "let's go a bit more direct" and we couldn't cope for 30 minutes or so at all.

The weaknesses have been there for all to see, but the gaffers can't or won't deal with them.

Edited January 19, 2020 by Comrie

[Lex]

Think that’s your bottom and top 6 all but decided now. Any hopes of dragging Livi or Hibs into it are pretty much finished with those set of results.

 

Terrible night for Accies and St Johnstone in games they would have fancied getting something from. Neither Hearts or Ross County will be happy with a draw.

 

Killie and Saints both with expected losses to the two arse cheeks, but without any major damage to the goal difference.

[RandomGuy.]

Hearts, Ross County and St Johnstone all the big losers. Fans of those clubs will have their own opinions based on what they saw tonight about whether its positive or negative. Hearts gaining a point on those above them a positive, but it needs to be more soon.

Hearts now looking at needing at least 24 points from 16 games. Arguably a 50% win ratio required. Doubt any one of those clubs are happy tonight.

County and Hearts dont get much respite, awful fixtures for them to follow what was a big game. St Johnstone v Kilmarnock also a huge game for the two clubs. Kilmarnock could arguably push themselves to safety with 3 points. St Johnstone only beaten Hearts and Hamilton in the league so far, and need to find somewhere else to pick up 3 points soon, games against the bottom half sides are running out.

Hamilton and St Mirren will both fancy their chances of taking at least one point.

[bennett]

If St Mirren play like they did against us then they could have a chance against the sheep.

A win for St J could see Killie getting into a play off dog fight.

[ATLIS]

On 19/01/2020 at 13:59, yoda said:

County's next three games after Hearts on Wednesday night are all away: Celtic, Rangers, and Kilmarnock, all within a week. The GD is going to take a hammering at Celtic Park and Ibrox, and we'll likely be on at least -30 by the time of the Livingston game in Dingwall.

We've had a weird season: we're obviously terrible, but have picked up enough points so far to make it look somewhat respectable, and there's been two or three really good performances. The managers get a lot of goodwill because of who they are, and I feel bad to criticise them, but they don't appear to know how to manage a team that isn't the best in the league. A lot of the criticisms levelled at them last season are still applicable this season. If County concede this season they look like downing tools or running out of ideas; last season they almost always found a way to get back into the game - that can mostly be attributed to simply being better than the opposition, but there was a fight and desire that we've rarely seen this season.

I think we'll stay up, and that was always the ambition this season. But two dreadful cup campaigns, and an absolutely abysmal run of form since mid-October, have really sapped my enthusiasm. 

Not sure why you stopped before us, County have conceded so much against us this season pretty sure it's 8 in 2 games?

[Comrie]

5 hours ago, ATLIS said:

Not sure why you stopped before us, County have conceded so much against us this season pretty sure it's 8 in 2 games?

It'll be -34 at least after you come up.

[Guest JTS98]

7 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

County and Hearts dont get much respite, awful fixtures for them to follow what was a big game.

I actually think playing Rangers next is fine for us.

It's a big home game that we should be up for and on current form is a 'free hit'.

And even if we lose, it's another 90 minutes of the players putting the new manager's methods into action in preparation for the more important games later on.

[RandomGuy.]

12 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

I actually think playing Rangers next is fine for us.

It's a big home game that we should be up for and on current form is a 'free hit'.

And even if we lose, it's another 90 minutes of the players putting the new manager's methods into action in preparation for the more important games later on.

Maybe. Im sure someones worked out the team in 10th will need 40 or more points this season, if things continue in a similar vein.

Means Hearts would need 26 points from 16 games. 8 wins required from 16 games. This weekend would be a huge boost towards that if you win, but as it is if you dont start winning soon you'll be heading into the split needing to be absolutely perfect.

Keep saying it though, February will decide your fate.

Edited January 23, 2020 by RandomGuy.

[Guest JTS98]

1 minute ago, RandomGuy. said:

Maybe. Im sure someones worked out the team in 10th will need 40 or more points this season, if things continue in a similar vein.

Means Hearts would need 26 points from 16 games. 8 wins required from 16 games. This weekend would be a huge boost towards that if you win, but as it is if you dont start winning soon you'll be heading into the split needing to be absolutely perfect.

Keep saying it though, February will decide your fate.

I'm never a fan of forecasting things like that. Football's not an exact science and there is absolutely no reason to assume things will continue as they have been. Teams come in and out of form, coaches and playing staff change.

Rather than focussing on this or that number of points it's just one game at a time and making sure we don't get cut adrift. With County playing Celtic away next, we have a bit of a breather there.

February is huge, yes. But the league doesn't finish at the start of March. We just need to stay in touch. With this number of games left four points is no reason to panic.

[RandomGuy.]

3 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

With County playing Celtic away next, we have a bit of a breather there.

Ross County are 8 points ahead of Hearts.

My point is simply that you need to start winning games against lose above you. If you dont, then theyll pick up wins and your current run, under a new manager, of only picking up one point here and there against the teams directly above you, wont be enough.

It's not impossible that Hamilton, St Mirren and St Johnstone all win at the weekend, and Hearts lose, and you'll then be 7pts off 11th.

You simply have to win all four games against teams around you in February.

[Guest JTS98]

10 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

1) Ross County are 8 points ahead of Hearts.

My point is simply that you need to start winning games against lose above you. If you dont, then theyll pick up wins and your current run, under a new manager, of only picking up one point here and there against the teams directly above you, wont be enough.

2) It's not impossible that Hamilton, St Mirren and St Johnstone all win at the weekend, and Hearts lose, and you'll then be 7pts off 11th.

3) You simply have to win all four games against teams around you in February.

1) Right enough. Distracted by last night's game.

2) Well, of course. But it's also possible that we win and they lose. That's how a league works.

3) No, we don't. If the gap at the end of February is still four points, we're still alive. People love to make big calls about this or that game being must win etc, but what you've posted there is just not true. It's perfectly conceivable that we do not win four out of four and go on to stay up. Two wins could be plenty depending on other results. Or if we win one and other results leave us a point or two behind, then we're still fighting. It's massively over the top to say Hearts need to win all of the games. What if we draw them all and Accies or St Mirren hit a losing run? We'd end February having gained 3 points on either. Is gaining one point more than Hamilton over the last ten games of the season impossible?

There are sixteen rounds of fixtures to go. Sixteen. That's plenty of time. We have a new coach and some new players settling in. We may or may not go down, but it's a bit much to suddenly suggest we need to win four games in the next six or we're doomed.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by JTS98

[RandomGuy.]

56 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

1) Right enough. Distracted by last night's game.

2) Well, of course. But it's also possible that we win and they lose. That's how a league works.

3) No, we don't. If the gap at the end of February is still four points, we're still alive. People love to make big calls about this or that game being must win etc, but what you've posted there is just not true. It's perfectly conceivable that we do not win four out of four and go on to stay up. Two wins could be plenty depending on other results. Or if we win one and other results leave us a point or two behind, then we're still fighting. It's massively over the top to say Hearts need to win all of the games. What if we draw them all and Accies or St Mirren hit a losing run? We'd end February having gained 3 points on either. Is gaining one point more than Hamilton over the last ten games of the season impossible?

There are sixteen rounds of fixtures to go. Sixteen. That's plenty of time. We have a new coach and some new players settling in. We may or may not go down, but it's a bit much to suddenly suggest we need to win four games in the next six or we're doomed.

 

Your away form is abysmal and you've two home games left against bottom half sides before the split.

How are you not worried?

[Guest JTS98]

1 minute ago, RandomGuy. said:

Your away form is abysmal and you've two home games left against bottom half sides before the split.

How are you not worried?

What's the point in worrying?

Of course our form is awful. We're bottom of the league. However, as I mentioned, we've got a new coach in, there'll be changes in the team, changes in style etc.

We might stay up, we might go down. But saying things like we suddenly have to win four games in the next few weeks is just over the top tabloid speak.

There are sixteen games left and we're four points behind. It's far from panic stations.

[accies1874]

Folk also need to take into account that we might be seeing out the season with Guillaume Beuzelin as our manager.

[Guest JTS98]

14 minutes ago, accies1874 said:

Folk also need to take into account that we might be seeing out the season with Guillaume Beuzelin as our manager.

Yeah. The Accies situation is another variable that nobody can really call. It might galvanise them, it might destroy them, it might make no difference.

And the good thing about chasing teams at the bottom of the league is that they're also shite. There's a long way left to go in this. There'll be good days and bad days ahead.

[Valentino Bolognese]

7 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

Yeah. The Accies situation is another variable that nobody can really call. It might galvanise them, it might destroy them, it might make no difference.

And the good thing about chasing teams at the bottom of the league is that they're also shite. There's a long way left to go in this. There'll be good days and bad days ahead.

... and we might well lose our best player and biggest goal threat in the next 7 days, before we play you. 

If Saints were in the form and points position that Hearts are in I'd be shitting it, but can also understand why you have some cause for optimistism. 

Also think @RandomGuy makes a good point though which is that the February fixtures is surely where you have to be looking to pick up points as the turnaround in form required for Hearts to be beating top 4 opposition would be nothing short of miraculous. It's all well and good having 16 games left but it's realistically winnable games that matter. 

We have 2 games in hand, but nobody is counting them as they're both OF.  We could say (like you) that these are 'free hits' and we've taken points in them before of course but to all intents and purposes they're write-offs. 

[tree house tam]

St Johnstone need to get the right deals done this coming week or we are fucked. 

[Scotty Tunbridge]

It’s so tight down the bottom. If any side can win two games in a row they can really start to pull away. Shame none of us look good enough to do that.

[DC92]

14 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

You simply have to win all four games against teams around you in February.

We really don't. Since the move to the current league structure in 2000, the highest number of points the bottom side has managed is 37, so let's say for argument's sake that we need another 24 points to at least finish 11th.

If we get something like:

12/15 at home to the bottom 6

8/15 away to the bottom 6

4/12 against Aberdeen/Motherwell/Hibs/Livi

we will almost certainly avoid 12th and likely 11th as well. That's nowhere near a given, but it's just not true to say we have to win every game against the teams around us.

[Green Day]

@DC92You have 6 matches left against top 6 opposition pre split, or are you just discounting the Celtic, Rangers as dead rubbers?