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The Big Relegation Thread


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59 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

Hearts fans are remarkably confident considering they're 5 points adrift with less than half a season to play, their new manager hasnt won any of his first 5 games, and theyve absolutely zero idea who theyll be signing in the window.

Did you not say we would be slaughtered by Aberdeen today?

You are full of so much shit that every negative Hearts prediction you make gives me a wee confidence boost.:)

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52 minutes ago, DC92 said:

- Haring and Souttar are apparently due back in January, and Washington has just returned. Given the length of their absences, these three will effectively be new signings. f**k knows about Naismith.

- we've started actually started getting on the front foot and creating chances in the last few games. If we can get a competent goalscorer or two in January we will inmediately be far better off.

 

Souttar will probably be back for about 3 games before getting injured again in fairness. Your defence will be immeasurably improved if Berra continues on the bench though. Looked a lot more solid at the back today than whenever else I’ve seen you this season. 

I wouldn’t get too excited about today though. We’re dogshite currently and anyone in their right mind wouldn’t have given you as much time and space on the ball as we did. 

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8 hours ago, LincolnHearts said:

We wiill take more points between now and the end of the season than St Johnstone do. You'll need to keep  your fingers crossed your unprecedented 7 point lead over us holds up for our next 17 games.

Probably not enough to keep you up though. 

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Guest Moomintroll
Dont think Livingston are safe. Hibs, yes.

I think Hearts will come good and Kilmarnock will get better. It'll be down to Hamilton, Ross County, St Johnstone, Livingston and St Mirren.
I bloody hope so Blaze, I know we are a couple of strikers who can actually score a goal away from being better than we have been for most of the past decade but I really have the fear right now.
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10 minutes ago, Moomintroll said:

I bloody hope so Blaze, I know we are a couple of strikers who can actually score a goal away from being better than we have been for most of the past decade but I really have the fear right now.

Any truth that O'Donnell is on his way to Aberdeen in January? Apparently already agreed a PCA.

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This. As someone pointed out in this thread on twitter, the similarities between Killie now and the Hibs side that went down is alarming.

Both teams had an embarrassing european result, and now with the Alessio sacking both teams have sacked their manager mid-way through the season. We're currently on a run of one win in eleven, hibs back then had a run of one win from fourteen games. 

Our next three league games after the break are Celtic (H), St. Johnstone (A), and Ross County (H). Given we've only beaten one of these teams in the season so far I wouldn't be surprised if we kept this winless run going, especially without major surgery to the current squad in the goalscoring department. The body language from certain other players in the squad also give the impression that they don't give a f**k. 

There still hasn't even been a statement from the board concerning a). any updates or even an acknowledgement that the club are searching for a new manager, or b). any updates regarding the January window, with it increasingly seeming like we'll have no manager in place for with every passing day since Angelo's sacking. 

 

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Guest Moomintroll
Any truth that O'Donnell is on his way to Aberdeen in January? Apparently already agreed a PCA.
It says everything that I would take Curtis Main as a part ex.
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1 hour ago, Ocular Patdown Required said:

This. As someone pointed out in this thread on twitter, the similarities between Killie now and the Hibs side that went down is alarming.

The good news is - I dont think Butcher is in for the Killie job !!

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Not a sentence I ever thought I'd type, but we need to emulate Gary Locke's Hearts team from 2013/14. After 21 games, we'd picked up 13 points, the same as this season, and in the remaining 17 games, we picked up 25.

7 wins (all against bottom 6 teams), 4 draws and 6 defeats. If we match that, we almost certainly won't finish bottom and probably avoid 11th as well. Add another win and we're safe, take away a win and we're in serious trouble.

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I was in the mood to suck the joy out of fitba' with some statistics so I put the last season-and-a-half into a python script, calculated an Elo-based ranking of the team strengths, and then resimulated the rest of the league 10,000 times to get a rough guess as to where the teams would end up. Here, columns are the league positions, rows are the teams, and the values are the percentage chance that a team is predicted to be in that position at the end of the season.


LeagueSimulation.png.b1f51181c8ea2a808d3a9168835c829d.png

 

Take this with a giant heap of salt, in that this requires some statistical assumptions (Elo parameters were just tuned to something vaguely sensible, and I fitted a probability distribution of goal differences by eyeballing a graph), and some football ones (manager changes and transfer windows might radically change a team's strength - Killie and Hearts would be the obvious top contenders for a rapid change in form). And the method is probably complete bollocks from the get-go, of course.

(To keep myself honest on that last point, after the event, I checked the technique with other seasons since the split came into force; the predicted last-place from this method was actually last placed 13 times out of 18, with the last-placed predictee coming second-last 4 times, and the one 'other' case was 2013-14 where Hearts - the predicted loser - were officially last due to a points deduction and only second-last in terms of game results. The most anomalous historical prediction was that it predicted Aberdeen would be the  most likely to win in 2014-15, albeit with only a marginally higher percentage than Celtic - 35% to 31% - so it  wasn't too sure of itself, and it did successfully predict Aberdeen coming 9th in 2011, despite everything).

Anyways, statistics confirms what we all knew already - Hearts are dugshite and it's a 70% chance they're going down...

Edited by Aim Here
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4 minutes ago, Aim Here said:

I was in the mood to suck the joy out of fitba' with some statistics so I put the last season-and-a-half into a python script, calculated an Elo-based ranking of the team strengths, and then resimulated the rest of the league 10,000 times to get a rough guess as to where the teams would end up. Here, columns are the league positions, rows are the teams, and the values are the percentage chance that a team is predicted to be in that position at the end of the season.


LeagueSimulation.png.b1f51181c8ea2a808d3a9168835c829d.png

 

Take this with a giant heap of salt, in that this requires some statistical assumptions (Elo parameters were just tuned to something vaguely sensible, and I fitted a probability distribution of goal differences by eyeballing a graph), and some football ones (manager changes and transfer windows might radically change a team's strength - Killie and Hearts would be the obvious top contenders for a rapid change in form). And the method is probably complete bollocks from the get-go, of course.

(To keep myself honest on that last point, after the event, I checked the technique with other seasons since the split; the predicted last-place from this method was actually last placed 13 times out of 18, with the last-placed predictee coming second-last 4 times, and the one 'other' case was 2013-14 where Hearts - the predicted loser - were officially last due to a points deduction and only second-last in terms of game results. The most anomalous historical prediction was that it predicted Aberdeen would be the  most likely to win in 2014-15, albeit with only a marginally higher percentage than Celtic - 35% to 31% - so it  wasn't too sure of itself, and it did successfully predict Aberdeen coming 9th in 2011, despite everything).

Anyways, statistics confirms what we all knew already - Hearts are dugshite and it's a 70% chance they're going down...

You might want to increase the likelihood of us going down from 1.4% to somewhere in the 50's.

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