Predictions that were wrong

[thisal]

Enoch Powell. Despite what the lunatic fringes tell you and try to stir up, Britain is a better more tolerant place  than it was in the 60's and 70's.

[DublinMagyar]

There he is!

[AUFC90]

Happy Oaksoft

[LongTimeLurker]

35 minutes ago, harry94 said:

...but your comparison with the threat of global terrorism is ridiculous, these are tangible things that do blatantly impact our life...

Both global warming and global terrorism are tangible things that have a basis in reality. Politicians like Al Gore and George W Bush hyped them up to present themselves as the messiah who would save the population from an apocalyptic nightmare that would otherwise happen. Adam Curtis explored the reasons they do that sort of thing very well in documentaries where global terrorism is the main focus. Global warming would probably have been too hot to handle in that regard for a BBC journalist given the way that the BBC tends to be mildly centre left in its prevailing politics.

The rhetoric of doom surrounding climate change is largely unchanged over the last two or three decades, while circumstances have changed drastically in terms of the prospects of actually being able to move to a more sustainable energy system over the next few decades without collapsing the global economy in the process. Cheap oil is a finite resource that is depleting rapidly so renewables and electric cars have moved from having to be very heavily subsidised to being very much economically competitive in the present day. If there had been a lot more Ghawar and Burgan supergiant type oil fields out there, melting the icecaps and sinking the Maldives would have been easier to do. As things stand at the moment a lot of the oil that is left like tar sands is likely to be left in the ground because production costs are simply way too high compared to turning to renewables.

[NotThePars]

Unless I am mistaken, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria have all been political decisions that have turned out to be disastrous to the citizens of those countries.  
 

Yemen.

[red23]

Tierney being better than Robertson.

[Enigma]

“The end of boom and bust”

[jakedee]

The Millennium Bug

[Melanius Mullarkey]

22 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Had a Chinese girlfriend at the time who told me I was "brainwashed" for thinking that an entire Labour party cabinet wouldn't lie about the WMDs and so it proved. What is the phantom threat that is being built up at the moment? Think people are taking the threat of Russia and Vladimir Putin invading somewhere like the Baltic states a bit more seriously than they really should. What gets neatly left out of the narrative is that when you try to view things from a Russian perspective it is difficult to argue against the point that Euromaidan was a western backed coup d'etat of a legally elected government. What subsequently happened in Crimea and the Donbas will probably look more like a spectacular own goal from a Russian perspective than anything else in a couple of decades time. They now have a Ukraine on their doorstep stretching almost as far as the Don with a fixed European orientation that is highly unlikely to ever vote in another pro-Russian government because its most pro-Russian areas no longer vote in its elections and even Belarus was spooked by the appearance of the little green men in Sebastapol and is not quite as pro-Russian as it used to be.

Anyway, this Chinese girlfriend....

[Fullerene]

That America could elect Trump but we would hardly even notice.

[I'm Brian]

On ‎15‎/‎07‎/‎2019 at 23:58, jakedee said:

The Millennium Bug

Not true. The millennium bug caused untold chaos

 

[Blue-Toon]

Boris Johnson will never become PM - 

https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2017/10/14/4-reasons-boris-johnson-will-never-become-pm/

 

[Ross.]

I've got too many wrong to even start listing them.

Got a few right as well though:

Post 2008 crash the major western economies would swing right for a bit.

Post Scottish Independence vote rUK/UK would vote to leave the EU.

Boris would end up PM.

Work in progress is still that London will end up semi autonomous from rUK and position itself as a city state running under separate legislation. Post Brexit I think that possibility will increase significantly but you are still a decade away from it happening.

Also expect that post Brexit we will see the NHS stripped back to a bare bones set up that is largely insurance based, but again I think it will be around a decade or so in the making. I expect that the UK government will put in place a means tested system of subsidies to ensure everyone has some form of insurance coverage.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

It's only when turning on the Parliament channel this morning and seeing that front bench that the true horror of our situation becomes clear. Individual arseholes, but placed together, you have a crew who have a proven record of mendacity, fraud, treason, stupidity, bigotry against so many minorities (including in some cases their own) it would take too long to list.

Please God the electorate wake up and revolt. This is no longer funny.

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, Ross. said:



 

Work in progress is still that London will end up semi autonomous from rUK and position itself as a city state running under separate legislation. Post Brexit I think that possibility will increase significantly but you are still a decade away from it happening. 

Also expect that post Brexit we will see the NHS stripped back to a bare bones set up that is largely insurance based, but again I think it will be around a decade or so in the making. I expect that the UK government will put in place a means tested system of subsidies to ensure everyone has some form of insurance coverage.

London can't go down the Singapore route because they would lose all the UK wide public sector jobs.

The public will never accept an insurance based system. What is already happening is that private providers will take over services and the government pays them to do so.

[Ross.]

11 minutes ago, Detournement said:

London can't go down the Singapore route because they would lose all the UK wide public sector jobs.

The public will never accept an insurance based system. What is already happening is that private providers will take over services and the government pays them to do so.

If a no deal Brexit happens I would expect both situations to happen as I predict within a 10 year or so period.

I used the term semi-autonomous for a reason. It won't be a fully fledged independence but there will be enough room for manoeuvre that London ends up with the best of both worlds, as a means of minimising issues with the financial services industry. rUK jobs will stay there because London "Still brings so much to the table for the rest of us" that we shouldn't punish the people working there for decisions they had no real influence on.

The public will accept an insurance based system. The costs associated with more private companies providing what they can will see services further cut. You'll have further real term cuts to the budget doing the same. You'll have MP's and their friends in the press trying to confuse the existing national insurance contributions with actual health insurance. A means tested system will be trialed and taken on, and before you know it the NHS will be A&E only with the rest being insurance based. The alternative will be painted as unachievable on the public purse in todays world and proof that even the best ideas can have a lifespan. I don't see why it is so unbelievable. The British public have a long track record of accepting shite governance with fairly little scrutiny.

Edited July 25, 2019 by Ross.

[Detournement]

2 minutes ago, Ross. said:

The British public have a long track record of accepting shite governance with fairly little scrutiny. 

The wider British public accepted austerity because it mainly hit the bottom 20%. Fundamental changes to the NHS would be met with resistance from a far bigger section of the electorate and as long as Labour are offering a left wing manifesto the Tories will never go there. It would require a US style one party corporate take over.

The City of London already has the kind of powers you are talking about. To me semi autonomous means having fiscal power and that break will never happen.

[Ross.]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The wider British public accepted austerity because it mainly hit the bottom 20%. Fundamental changes to the NHS would be met with resistance from a far bigger section of the electorate and as long as Labour are offering a left wing manifesto the Tories will never go there. It would require a US style one party corporate take over.

All depends on how you frame it. All you need to do is present it in a way that it appears the lesser of two evils and people will forget to question why there isn't a 3rd, more obvious option.

"The NHS is unfit for purpose. We can fix it but we need to add 20% to your tax bill. Alternatively, you can pay for private insurance at a fraction of the cost and we will be able to drop your tax bill a wee bit and foist the required changes onto the private sector". Middle earners facing the prospect of a huge tax increase, or a little change to their financial situation will go for the second option every day of the week.

[Detournement]

I disagree. I think the Tory capitulations on the dementia tax and self employed taxation show that they have very little power on matters which directly touch on middle class voters.

They can frame that argument but Labour will make the left wing case for universal health care.

 

[Ross.]

6 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I disagree. I think the Tory capitulations on the dementia tax and self employed taxation show that they have very little power on matters which directly touch on middle class voters.

They can frame that argument but Labour will make the left wing case for universal health care.

Time will tell. On this one I definitely hope I am wrong.