Predictions that were wrong

[ICTChris]

One of the interesting things about getting older is seeing how things actually play out in the world, being able to see predictions come true or not in real life.

 

Adam Curtis made a short doc about the paranoid style in modern society and he mentioned some predictions that were made in the 1990s - we were all going to die for vCJD, millions were going to die from bird flu. I also remember lots of earnest coverage about mobile phones causing cancer.

 

In politics and society you can see these as well. Not joining the euro was supposed to hamstring the British economy according to wide swathes of senior politicians, the finaNcial markets were also strongly supportive of joining the euro. Britain didn’t join and no-one can really argue that it had the effect that it was supposed to. This was a big thing - it’s hard to believe now but John Major went into thr 97 election pledging not to rule in or out joining the euro. He even gave an emotional speech about it after hundreds of Tory candidates pledged to oppose joining - “don’t bind my hands” he pleaded.

 

Devolution was going to kill Scottish nationalism stone dead as was the independence referendum. New Labour had killed the Left. David Cameron had killed the Tory right.

 

What political facts are we absolutely sure about today that will be looked back on as obviously wrong?

 

 

[John Lambies Doos]

.

[Granny Danger]

Accusations of anti-Semitism and Marxism will destroy the Labour Party and a new ‘centre left’ party will fill the breach.

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Think a lot of you really do need to examine global warming a lot more closely. Yes it's based on something real given that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but that doen't mean every attention seeker with a dire prediction has to be believed uncritically and the very real possibility that peak oil demand is just around the corner due to the spectactular advances that have been made over the last decade or so on battery technology and on achieving grid parity for renewables shouldn't just be ignored because it doesn't fit the impending doomsday narrative where climate is concerned. There are plenty of reasons for optimism about what lies ahead.

Many people can see clearly how right wing politicians cynically scare people with exaggerated rhetoric about the threat of global terrorism to get the population to turn to them for protection "Power of Nightmares" style, but fewer grasp that left wing politicians are often up to the same game with environmental issues. Despite what we have been told over the last 30 years, Scotland still has a skiing industry, the Amazon and Congo rainforests are still largely intact, and the ice caps are still very much there despite that forlorn looking polar bear you always see perched on an iceberg.

[sophia]

I don't know about present day certainties but here's another time when Labour didn't win.

I recall the major doom when Labour lost England again.

 

 

[welshbairn]

21 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think a lot of you really do need to examine global warming a lot more closely. Yes it's based on something real given that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but that doen't mean every attention seeker with a dire prediction has to be believed uncritically and the very real possibility that peak oil demand is just around the corner due to the spectactular advances that have been made over the last decade or so on battery technology and on achieving grid parity for renewables shouldn't just be ignored because it doesn't fit the impending doomsday narrative where climate is concerned. There are plenty of reasons for optimism about what lies ahead.

Many people can see clearly how right wing politicians cynically scare people with exaggerated rhetoric about the threat of global terrorism to get the population to turn to them for protection "Power of Nightmares" style, but fewer grasp that left wing politicians are often up to the same game with environmental issues. Despite what we have been told over the last 30 years, Scotland still has a skiing industry, the Amazon and Congo rainforests are still largely intact, and the ice caps are still very much there despite that forlorn looking polar bear you always see perched on an iceberg.

I don't get your point with this argument at all. Much of the advances in renewables and battery storage have been made precisely because of warnings over climate change and consequent Government subsidies. How can that not be a good thing? As to the ice caps, I guess the polar bears are just perching on their blocks of ice to watch the cargo and cruise ships passing through the newly melted North West Passage. And the fact you can still ski at Aviemore a few weekends a year reminds me of Trump saying that a cold snap proves that climate change isn't happening.

[LongTimeLurker]

6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

...Much of the advances in renewables and battery storage have been made precisely because of warnings over climate change and consequent Government subsidies...

Not true really at least on the much bit, because you are ignoring that fossil fuels are finite. Car companies and energy corporations finally got serious about renewables and lithium ion batteries rather than simply paying lip service to those sorts of technologies when the oil price shot up slightly over a decade ago when conventional crude oil production peaked globally. The implementation of fracking in the United States stopped prices from shooting up into the stratosphere and collapsing the global economy but couldn't stop energy prices rising to a point that the electric car, and solar and wind power were a rational investment. It's only a matter of time (years rather than decades) until the s curve on adoption starts to really shoot up on those in global terms.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Not true really at least on the much bit, because you are ignoring that fossil fuels are finite. Car companies and energy corporations finally got serious about renewables and lithium ion batteries rather than simply paying lip service to those sorts of technologies when the oil price shot up slightly over a decade ago when conventional crude oil production peaked globally. The implementation of fracking in the United States stopped prices from shooting up into the stratosphere and collapsing the global economy but couldn't stop energy prices rising to a point that the electric car, and solar and wind power were a rational investment. It's only a matter of time (years rather than decades) until the s curve on adoption starts to really shoot up on those in global terms.

So whether it's caused by the threat of global warming or diminishing non renewable resources, cutting down on the amount of carbon we're pumping into the atmosphere is a good thing? I still don't get your point.

[LongTimeLurker]

My point was about how left wing politicians exaggerate the predicament we are in on environmental issues and downplay the good things that are happening for "Power of Nightmares" reasons.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

My point was about how left wing politicians exaggerate the predicament we are in on environmental issues and downplay the good things that are happening for "Power of Nightmares" reasons.

Or maybe they just believe the overwhelming majority of climate scientists and associated specialists, rather than the likes of James Delingpole. Either way, they're helping to push for the solutions that everyone for whom the long term is a thing agrees on. So you should be happy.

[NotThePars]

Francis Fukuyama has to be considered for the biggest L in a book title. Poor guy.

[LongTimeLurker]

28 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Or maybe they just believe the overwhelming majority of climate scientists and associated specialists, rather than the likes of James Delingpole. Either way, they're helping to push for the solutions that everyone for whom the long term is a thing agrees on. So you should be happy.

The concern is what being constantly bombarded with competing nightmarish visions does to people's psyches. Eventually they stop voting for politicians who are using those exaggerated nightmares cynically to gain power but gravitate towards the centre once in office and start voting for outright nutters with an extremely cranky agenda. Trump and Farage would be obvious right wing examples right now for that phenomenon and Corbyn given a Westminster majority would start to take things into interesting territory on the left. Francis Fukuyama was very much out to lunch and should be feeling foolish nowadays.

Edited July 14, 2019 by LongTimeLurker

[I'm Brian]

Anthony C Pick's best buddy, failed lawyer turned IT bloke was always good for a prediction or two.

Invest in Northern Rock shares . They can only go up

SNP will win 12 seats maximum. The absolute ceiling.

Take a bow H_B, Take a bow

 

As for people that actually matter

We will eliminate the deficit by 2015 - George Osborne

Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government - David Steel  circa 1983

 

No doubt certain posters on here will w**k themselves into a frenzy at the mere thought of this, but uber-Racist Tory c**t Enoch Powell made quite a bold prediction back in the sixties. 

It's amazing how many times it's cast up by racist fuckwits. Sad thing is Farage et al have just used the same ridiculous argument over the decades since.

And still the morons lap it up

[Miguel Sanchez]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think a lot of you really do need to examine global warming a lot more closely. Yes it's based on something real given that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but that doen't mean every attention seeker with a dire prediction has to be believed uncritically and the very real possibility that peak oil demand is just around the corner due to the spectactular advances that have been made over the last decade or so on battery technology and on achieving grid parity for renewables shouldn't just be ignored because it doesn't fit the impending doomsday narrative where climate is concerned. There are plenty of reasons for optimism about what lies ahead.

Many people can see clearly how right wing politicians cynically scare people with exaggerated rhetoric about the threat of global terrorism to get the population to turn to them for protection "Power of Nightmares" style, but fewer grasp that left wing politicians are often up to the same game with environmental issues. Despite what we have been told over the last 30 years, Scotland still has a skiing industry, the Amazon and Congo rainforests are still largely intact, and the ice caps are still very much there despite that forlorn looking polar bear you always see perched on an iceberg.

[Newbornbairn]

"Free in 83" Gordon Wilson

[ICTChris]

"Free in 83" Gordon Wilson

Scotland Free by ‘93.


Prior to the Brexit vote many financial analysts had predicted that the UK would enter a recession before even leaving the EU, that hasn’t happened (maybe they don’t think we will leave). Similar predictions were made about Scottish independence but the vote went the other way so we’ll never know. To a lesser extent the same was said about devolution but I think everyone kind of knew that would be OK.

[The OP]

Not really a political prediction exactly but I recall at high school in the early 2000s having textbooks saying the world’s oil will run out by the 1990s. 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Miguel Sanchez said:

^^^probably doesn't understand what I wrote but no doubt thinks he is being very clever.

[BFTD]

I seem to remember Bill Clinton campaigning for his second term with the promise that the US would have colonised Mars by the year 2000.

Having said that, Ronnie Raygun claimed the US was going to surround Earth with space lasers that would shoot commie nukes out of the sky, so I don't think Bill quite takes the Batshit Space Fantasy title. No doubt The Donald will break out his American Space Marines bollocks again after a few more viewings of the documentary Starship Troopers.

[ICTChris]

Accusations of anti-Semitism and Marxism will destroy the Labour Party and a new ‘centre left’ party will fill the breach.
 

The Labour Party certainly aren’t destroyed but they are on a losing run that takes some beating.

Uk elections
2010 - lost power, 91 seats down and 6% of he vote lost.
2015 - failed to dislodge coalition, lost total of 26 seats, wiped out in Scotland.
2017 - failed to win against a shambolic Tory party with a terrible leader perusing a policy millions of people opposed.

Scottish elections
2008 - lost power by a seat or two
2011 - fail to make any headway, lose further seats
2016 - drop seats and votes again, lose official opposition status to Tories

Welsh assembly
2011 - managed to win a minority government, about as good as it gets in the WA
2016 - lose it

European Parliament
2014 - made gains but still finished second to UKIP
2019 - finish 3rd in a UK election for the first time in I don’t know how long. Secure 13% of vote, lose half their seats.

Referendums
2011 - party was fairly evenly split and didn’t take official position. Most leadership supported AV, the side that lost comprehensively
2014 - Scottish independence referendum, win for Labour but doesn’t seem to have ended well for them.
2016 - Labour leadership and almost entire PLP and affiliated organisations supported Remain.


I do agree that Labour being replaced as a party seems unlikely but you never know. Who’d have predicted Labour and the Tories finishing 3rd and 4th in a UK election?