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vikingTON

League Cup/European betting - July

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Well, that was an authoritative disagreement with the bookies over the Caley Jags price😂. I blew a few bawbees there 😒. Maybe they know more than me after all. I looked after about 35 minutes. Caley were 4-0 up on corners and about 5-2 up on shots. Peterhead must've erse-raped them in the second half from the overall stats. 

Brondby losing was a shocker. Looked a great bet at 17/20 or whatever after skooshing the first leg.

As for Killie... Sheesh! I looked at the 10/1 Connah's Quay last week and was slightly tempted. Maybe they'd get a ref sympathetic to their "hard-but-borderline" tactics, Killie might be frustrated and retaliate naively. It happens with vastly superior teams sometimes. A Killie red card and a 1-0 CQ was possible. After Killie nicked the 2-1 win, I didn't even consider Betway's 25/1 Connah's Quay for the 2nd leg yesterday, never mind backing them at whatever price they were to qualify.  

So. Latest League Cup action. Mark Walker in the Racing Post got both TV games right last weekend: going for the overpriced away underdog in the "Double Chance" market both times. He goes for a creative option in his preview of MOTHERWELL v. MORTON tonight - "Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score" at 21/20 with Bet365. Considering there are plenty of games where a standard "Over 2.5 goals" is 21/20 or better, that's a left-field call. The accompanying stats table says only 39% of Morton's games last season went "Over 2.5" and Motherwell's tally was 50%. However, Mr. Walker generally turns a fair profit over a season, so I'm not arguing against that recommended investment. Joe Champion did the Racing & Football Outlook preview earlier this week and goes for Motherwell -1 on handicap, which is a shade of odds-against with most layers. Mr. Champion also did the St. Johnstone v. Ross County preview and went for Sainties to win @ 5/4. I've backed 'Well each-way @ 40/1 to triumph at Hampden, but I won't be getting involved on tonight's game at the prices.  (5/11 Motherwell in a place, 11/2 Morton generally.)

Figaro's weekend preview in Racing & Football Outlook obviously had to be penned prior to the midweek games. He picked Dunfermline as his headline selection at 4/6 away to Edinburgh City. East Fife are tipped @21/20 v. Stenny; Clyde @ 11/8 v.  Airdrie and Sainties @ a standout 5/4 with Skybet for their home clash with Ross County. Bankers getting write-ups are Hibs @ 2/7, Stranraer @ 3/10 and St. Mirren @ 3/10. 

I can't see a lot I fancy. I put a small circle around Q.o.S. in the dead rubber at Dumbarton, but they've been cut quite a bit from the 20/21 and 19/20 in this morning's Racing Post Pricewise table. Ayr would be a cracking bet to see-off Falkirk at 21/20 on much of last season's form, but I can't see that price being great value just now. Unless there are drastic price changes, I doubt I'll be having a bet.           

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5 hours ago, Victor von Doom said:

Well, that was an authoritative disagreement with the bookies over the Caley Jags price😂. I blew a few bawbees there 😒. Maybe they know more than me after all. I looked after about 35 minutes. Caley were 4-0 up on corners and about 5-2 up on shots. Peterhead must've erse-raped them in the second half from the overall stats. 

Brondby losing was a shocker. Looked a great bet at 17/20 or whatever after skooshing the first leg.

As for Killie... Sheesh! I looked at the 10/1 Connah's Quay last week and was slightly tempted. Maybe they'd get a ref sympathetic to their "hard-but-borderline" tactics, Killie might be frustrated and retaliate naively. It happens with vastly superior teams sometimes. A Killie red card and a 1-0 CQ was possible. After Killie nicked the 2-1 win, I didn't even consider Betway's 25/1 Connah's Quay for the 2nd leg yesterday, never mind backing them at whatever price they were to qualify.  

So. Latest League Cup action. Mark Walker in the Racing Post got both TV games right last weekend: going for the overpriced away underdog in the "Double Chance" market both times. He goes for a creative option in his preview of MOTHERWELL v. MORTON tonight - "Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score" at 21/20 with Bet365. Considering there are plenty of games where a standard "Over 2.5 goals" is 21/20 or better, that's a left-field call. The accompanying stats table says only 39% of Morton's games last season went "Over 2.5" and Motherwell's tally was 50%. However, Mr. Walker generally turns a fair profit over a season, so I'm not arguing against that recommended investment. Joe Champion did the Racing & Football Outlook preview earlier this week and goes for Motherwell -1 on handicap, which is a shade of odds-against with most layers. Mr. Champion also did the St. Johnstone v. Ross County preview and went for Sainties to win @ 5/4. I've backed 'Well each-way @ 40/1 to triumph at Hampden, but I won't be getting involved on tonight's game at the prices.  (5/11 Motherwell in a place, 11/2 Morton generally.)

Figaro's weekend preview in Racing & Football Outlook obviously had to be penned prior to the midweek games. He picked Dunfermline as his headline selection at 4/6 away to Edinburgh City. East Fife are tipped @21/20 v. Stenny; Clyde @ 11/8 v.  Airdrie and Sainties @ a standout 5/4 with Skybet for their home clash with Ross County. Bankers getting write-ups are Hibs @ 2/7, Stranraer @ 3/10 and St. Mirren @ 3/10. 

I can't see a lot I fancy. I put a small circle around Q.o.S. in the dead rubber at Dumbarton, but they've been cut quite a bit from the 20/21 and 19/20 in this morning's Racing Post Pricewise table. Ayr would be a cracking bet to see-off Falkirk at 21/20 on much of last season's form, but I can't see that price being great value just now. Unless there are drastic price changes, I doubt I'll be having a bet.           

:lol:

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