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League Cup/European betting - July


vikingTON

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Well, that was an authoritative disagreement with the bookies over the Caley Jags price😂. I blew a few bawbees there 😒. Maybe they know more than me after all. I looked after about 35 minutes. Caley were 4-0 up on corners and about 5-2 up on shots. Peterhead must've erse-raped them in the second half from the overall stats. 

Brondby losing was a shocker. Looked a great bet at 17/20 or whatever after skooshing the first leg.

As for Killie... Sheesh! I looked at the 10/1 Connah's Quay last week and was slightly tempted. Maybe they'd get a ref sympathetic to their "hard-but-borderline" tactics, Killie might be frustrated and retaliate naively. It happens with vastly superior teams sometimes. A Killie red card and a 1-0 CQ was possible. After Killie nicked the 2-1 win, I didn't even consider Betway's 25/1 Connah's Quay for the 2nd leg yesterday, never mind backing them at whatever price they were to qualify.  

So. Latest League Cup action. Mark Walker in the Racing Post got both TV games right last weekend: going for the overpriced away underdog in the "Double Chance" market both times. He goes for a creative option in his preview of MOTHERWELL v. MORTON tonight - "Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score" at 21/20 with Bet365. Considering there are plenty of games where a standard "Over 2.5 goals" is 21/20 or better, that's a left-field call. The accompanying stats table says only 39% of Morton's games last season went "Over 2.5" and Motherwell's tally was 50%. However, Mr. Walker generally turns a fair profit over a season, so I'm not arguing against that recommended investment. Joe Champion did the Racing & Football Outlook preview earlier this week and goes for Motherwell -1 on handicap, which is a shade of odds-against with most layers. Mr. Champion also did the St. Johnstone v. Ross County preview and went for Sainties to win @ 5/4. I've backed 'Well each-way @ 40/1 to triumph at Hampden, but I won't be getting involved on tonight's game at the prices.  (5/11 Motherwell in a place, 11/2 Morton generally.)

Figaro's weekend preview in Racing & Football Outlook obviously had to be penned prior to the midweek games. He picked Dunfermline as his headline selection at 4/6 away to Edinburgh City. East Fife are tipped @21/20 v. Stenny; Clyde @ 11/8 v.  Airdrie and Sainties @ a standout 5/4 with Skybet for their home clash with Ross County. Bankers getting write-ups are Hibs @ 2/7, Stranraer @ 3/10 and St. Mirren @ 3/10. 

I can't see a lot I fancy. I put a small circle around Q.o.S. in the dead rubber at Dumbarton, but they've been cut quite a bit from the 20/21 and 19/20 in this morning's Racing Post Pricewise table. Ayr would be a cracking bet to see-off Falkirk at 21/20 on much of last season's form, but I can't see that price being great value just now. Unless there are drastic price changes, I doubt I'll be having a bet.           

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Racing Post tips today, from Mark Walker as usual.

He goes for ELGIN as the headline selection. Hill's were 29/20 this morning. There was plenty of 8/5 around Thursday night and yesterday morning. They've been cut to 5/4 now, though Marathonbet go 63/50.

STRANRAER -2 on handicap at 2/1 with Fred & Coral is also recommended. I haven't been counting but if Mr. Walker says Berwick have lost their last 10 competive matches by an aggregate of 36-0, I'll believe him. The form Arbroath are in, it's lucky Berwick aren't playing the Lichties. The Wee Rangers might have a shout against Bon Accord though. 

STENHOUSEMUIR @ 5/2 with Hill's and Sky for the win in Methil is the third tip. Victor doesn't agree and has pushed Stenny out to 14/5. East Fife now odds-on across the board.

He just opts for a 1-point bet on each of the trio.       

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Racing Post tips today, from Mark Walker as usual.
He goes for ELGIN as the headline selection. Hill's were 29/20 this morning. There was plenty of 8/5 around Thursday night and yesterday morning. They've been cut to 5/4 now, though Marathonbet go 63/50.
STRANRAER -2 on handicap at 2/1 with Fred & Coral is also recommended. I haven't been counting but if Mr. Walker says Berwick have lost their last 10 competive matches by an aggregate of 36-0, I'll believe him. The form Arbroath are in, it's lucky Berwick aren't playing the Lichties. The Wee Rangers might have a shout against Bon Accord though. 
STENHOUSEMUIR @ 5/2 with Hill's and Sky for the win in Methil is the third tip. Victor doesn't agree and has pushed Stenny out to 14/5. East Fife now odds-on across the board.
He just opts for a 1-point bet on each of the trio.       


Are you Mark Walker?
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19 hours ago, jagfox99 said:

Mark w****r lol

Guy puts up three £100 singles. Gets two winners @ 2/1 and 29/20. Draws £545 for a £245 profit. Laughing matter, right enough. Utter onanist.

If I went to  the races, had three £100 bets and walked-out £245 to the good, I'd be well pleased.

...and, "No" - I'm not Mark Walker. I just thought it might be informative to post the selections of the only man in the media spotlight who gets paid for making them.

I found his 'Well v. 'Ton tip strange enough to raise an eyebrow, especially as it didn't seem to have a statistical basis, but, as I say, he does OK over the season. He has to find two or three bets on every Scottish coupon, which makes things difficult. There was the square sum of shag all I fancied yesterday, aside from Q.o.S. who shortened-up a mite from opening quotes. Walker doesn't have a "Recommendation: No Bet" option on his column.

For what it's worth, he tips Ross County at 19/10 with Bet365 for today's televised game at McDiarmid. 

 

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...Maybe I should be Mark Walker though. I put-up two "group winner" bets - Jags @ 7/2 on the ante-post thread (may have been cut to 11/4 by the time I posted on here) and Pars @ 10/3. Jags only need to jump the last; Pars only need to avoid a Devon Loch impression.

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Think a much improved Albion Rovers from last season are a little big to beat Edinburgh City at home @ 4/1. Motherwell -2 against Annan at 13/10 looks decent too if results in the group so far are anything to go by.

 

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There's a lovely picture of John Sutton (in a black & white shirt of some sort) on the inside back page of the Racing Post today. He's a mite better looking than his big brother.

This tells the illiterate - of whom there may be one or two in Renfrewshire - that the mighty 'Ton are Mark Walker's headline selection in the final round of League Cup matches. 13/10 with Hill's to see-off the Dobbmeister & Co. at Cappielow.

The loquacious Dick Campbell can come across as a probable illiterate on occasion, but his Arbroath side is going well and the Lichties are recommended at 21/20 with Hill's to beat Alloa.

Mr. Walker also goes for Motherwell -2 against Annan at 7/5 with Bet365.

There was no specific Scottish column in this week's Racing & Football Outlook. That's understandable, as the midweek results were clearly going to have a major bearing on the final round of matches. The only Scottish headline tip in the R.F.O. was Simon Giles leading his "True Odds" column of otherwise exclusively Allsvenskan write-ups with 7/5 about Raith beating Peterhead in midweek, which copped. Figaro's column gave no specific Scottish write-ups, but his midweek selections were a train-wreck, with St.Mirren, Dundee United, Edinburgh City & Airdrie all listed in the "Bankers" category 😨😂! Figaro's weekend "Bankers" are Ayr, Hearts (brave @ 3/10) and Montrose😨! He bravely lists Albion as one of two Scottish home win tips, together with Stenny. He has Accies and Clyde down as his two aways. "Double Chance" recommendations are big outsiders Forfar, together with Arbroath & Morton. 

I agree with Mr. Walker on MORTON and ARBROATH, so I will be on both, with the finger currently hovering over RAITH in a meaningless match at Cove.  

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On 26/07/2019 at 12:56, C. Muir said:

Think a much improved Albion Rovers from last season are a little big to beat Edinburgh City at home @ 4/1. Motherwell -2 against Annan at 13/10 looks decent too if results in the group so far are anything to go by.

Nice spots. Had Forfar to beat the fermers too but messed up a Highland League pick.

4 hours ago, Victor von Doom said:

I agree with Mr. Walker on MORTON and ARBROATH, so I will be on both, with the finger currently hovering over RAITH in a meaningless match at Cove.  

Whoops.

Edited by welshbairn
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On 26/07/2019 at 12:56, C. Muir said:

Think a much improved Albion Rovers from last season are a little big to beat Edinburgh City at home @ 4/1. Motherwell -2 against Annan at 13/10 looks decent too if results in the group so far are anything to go by.

 

Bit gutted I never went for the double and ending up taking Motherwell -2 on another coupon that got burst. Still, single on Albion Rovers as a winner.

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1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

Nice spots. Had Forfar to beat the fermers too but messed a Highland League pick.

Whoops.

Looked at Forfar myself especially as a win took them through as a best placed 2nd (I think) but never bothered in the end!

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