League Cup/European betting - July

[vikingTON]

A welcome return for real football after that trying too hard drivel in France. Standout bet for me this weekend is Annan, who look far too big at 17/10 to beat a Dumbarton ‘team’ of ringers, four of which only signed last night due to Jim Duffy’s standard, pre-season incompetence. A treble with Ayr -2 at Berwick and Hibs -2 at Stirling returns £70 from a fiver.

[Mitch]

Thistle, Motherwell, Dundee, County and Annan for tomorrow.

[BinoBalls]

I gobbled up 2/1 on Annan yesterday, though in truth I'm not certain Annan will be as good as they were last season -- but nevertheless I'd make them narrow favourites whereas the bookies hadit the other way around. 

I also whacked a large bet on Forfar at 6/10. That's been cut  little now as well.

[Anthony Fitzgerald]

You can still get Annan DNB at evens for those more cautious.

[Victor von Doom]

I shrewdly took 9/5 Annan earlier in the week. 19/10 is now available. Also shrewdly took 8/11 Motherwell... Before one bookie went up at 4/5, though that's gone now. Dundee at 10/11 was another shrewd investment, as they're now 19/20.

Mark Walker in the Racing Post is usually a reliable tipster, though he's no Stuart Carruthers. Walker's column today recommends MOTHERWELL as the headline selection at 8/11, ANNAN at that 19/10 and FALKIRK at 7/2. He tipped Falkirk to win their group at 5/1 in yesterday's preview. Only 1-point investments advised on all three. He opened with a slightly jammy winner last night - advising 1-point on the Arabs in the "double chance" market at 6/4.

[jagfox]

Falkirk HT/FT trending on Oddschecker. Took a nibble at 6s.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, Victor von Doom said:

I shrewdly took 9/5 Annan earlier in the week. 19/10 is now available. Also shrewdly took 8/11 Motherwell... Before one bookie went up at 4/5, though that's gone now. Dundee at 10/11 was another shrewd investment, as they're now 19/20.

I don't think you've quite grasped how odds work tbh.

[Victor von Doom]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

I don't think you've quite grasped how odds work tbh.

I certainly haven't. I took 4/1 Falkirk making the play-offs after about 10 games two seasons ago. 

I've grasped that the odds about anything with hubcaps being intact after a wee while parked at the statue end of West Blackhall Street are quite lengthy though.  

[vikingTON]

Edited July 13, 2019 by vikingTON

[Victor von Doom]

Shout out to "Figaro" in the Racing & Football Outlook.

He tipped four at the start of the week. Napped Peterhead @ 13/20; Albion, who drifted out to 5/2 this morning; Forfar, hammered in to 11/20 from much longer early quotes; and Livi, who walked out to 9/10 today. 

Connor Sammon's equaliser in the 91st minute sunk a 16/1 acca. 

[LoonsYouthTeam]

Shout out to "Figaro" in the Racing & Football Outlook.
He tipped four at the start of the week. Napped Peterhead @ 13/20; Albion, who drifted out to 5/2 this morning; Forfar, hammered in to 11/20 from much longer early quotes; and Livi, who walked out to 9/10 today. 
Connor Sammon's equaliser in the 91st minute sunk a 16/1 acca. 

Shout out to him for getting a 4 team Acca with 2 short odds home favourites wrong?

[CM.]

2 hours ago, Victor von Doom said:

Shout out to "Figaro" in the Racing & Football Outlook.

He tipped four at the start of the week. Napped Peterhead @ 13/20; Albion, who drifted out to 5/2 this morning; Forfar, hammered in to 11/20 from much longer early quotes; and Livi, who walked out to 9/10 today. 

Connor Sammon's equaliser in the 91st minute sunk a 16/1 acca. 

I backed East Kilbride at 29/20 yesterday and seen they were battered into odds on by kick off. Mustve been a few fair wedges placed on them.

[Victor von Doom]

55 minutes ago, LoonsYouthTeam said:

2 hours ago, Victor von Doom said:

Shout out to "Figaro" in the Racing & Football Outlook.
He tipped four at the start of the week. Napped Peterhead @ 13/20; Albion, who drifted out to 5/2 this morning; Forfar, hammered in to 11/20 from much longer early quotes; and Livi, who walked out to 9/10 today. 
Connor Sammon's equaliser in the 91st minute sunk a 16/1 acca. 

Shout out to him for getting a 4 team Acca with 2 short odds home favourites wrong?

Harsh. He didn't recommend the acca as such. Three out of four, being denied the clean sweep by an injury-time goal, is a very good start. I'd take it.

I'm satisfied with my start. Two odds-on away winners, a 9/5 loser, Partick in a strong position to win the group @ 7/2, outright picks Motherwell winning comfortably and Hibs... ehhhh.... well, playing like a collection of Northern Premier and Welsh League footballers for some unfathomable reason.  

[LoonsYouthTeam]

Harsh. He didn't recommend the acca as such. Three out of four, being denied the clean sweep by an injury-time goal, is a very good start. I'd take it.
I'm satisfied with my start. Two odds-on away winners, a 9/5 loser, Partick in a strong position to win the group @ 7/2, outright picks Motherwell winning comfortably and Hibs... ehhhh.... well, playing like a collection of Northern Premier and Welsh League footballers for some unfathomable reason.  

The 4 in question, if you'd asked me to pick the 4 results I'd have picked the same, as I'm sure the majority of this site would.

Partick may be a good shout, you should big yourself up more than this guy you're backing!

[Victor von Doom]

I doubt I'll be bigging anything up in midweek. No genuinely competitive games in the League Cup. About the longest priced favourite I have on my tissue is Livi at 4/6 or 8/13 against Ayr. I make Arbroath about 4/7 at Stirling and Morton the same price at home to Dumbarton, though maybe I'm underestimating the Sons. Caley Jags at  close to 1/2 may be vulnerable at Peterhead. I have Falkirk (v. Stranraer), Partick (at Queen's Park) and Q.o.S. (v. their Annan nursery) at 1/2 or a tad shorter. Arabs were poor on Friday but I still say 2/5 at Stenny. Alloa same price at home to Elgin. Sainties at Montrose and Accies at Clyde also 2/5. Pars 4/11 v. Albion. Dundee 1/3 at Cove, Ross no longer than that at Brechin, St.Mirren 1/4 v. Embra and Hearts 1/6 at the Raceway. There'll be plenty of coupons with tenfold accas being handed over shop counters.  

[Bairney The Dinosaur]

I was happy with Dundee at 1.9 earlier in the week but then on Saturday morning they were up a 2.15 across the board. It was a very strange one so I just decided to double down.

I think I’m going to wait for St Mirren to reach evens in play and put a wee bit on that.

Midweek I quite like Inverness at 1.8 away to Peterhead and a dnb or dc on Annan away to Qots.

[CM.]

1 hour ago, Victor von Doom said:

I doubt I'll be bigging anything up in midweek. No genuinely competitive games in the League Cup. About the longest priced favourite I have on my tissue is Livi at 4/6 or 8/13 against Ayr. I make Arbroath about 4/7 at Stirling and Morton the same price at home to Dumbarton, though maybe I'm underestimating the Sons. Caley Jags at  close to 1/2 may be vulnerable at Peterhead. I have Falkirk (v. Stranraer), Partick (at Queen's Park) and Q.o.S. (v. their Annan nursery) at 1/2 or a tad shorter. Arabs were poor on Friday but I still say 2/5 at Stenny. Alloa same price at home to Elgin. Sainties at Montrose and Accies at Clyde also 2/5. Pars 4/11 v. Albion. Dundee 1/3 at Cove, Ross no longer than that at Brechin, St.Mirren 1/4 v. Embra and Hearts 1/6 at the Raceway. There'll be plenty of coupons with tenfold accas being handed over shop counters.  

What site is giving 1/2 Inverness? They're 4/5 on 365.

As posted on the coupons busters thread Hibs -1 done me on a 6fold yesterday that included Dundee, Partick Thistle, Forfar, Ayr -1 and County -1. Not much I like the look of this midweek tbh, not even convinced that the very short favs will cover handicaps either.

[Victor von Doom]

Those are my tissue prices. I've not looked at any prices.

I'll be on Caley Jags at 4/5. That's a comical price. It's simply wrong. If there's a Betfair market, I'll lay the Blue Toon for a few quid at anything south of 4.0. Bet365's 13/5 is atrocious value.  It's a below-average, part-time, League One side v. an above average, full-time Championship side.  I'd make a bang average Championship side 8/11 or maybe even 4/6 at a bang average League One side. Caley Jags are 4th-in on Bet365's Championship market at 11/2. All prices in League One are inflated by Falkirk being 4/7, but Peterhead, at 16/1, have only 3 clubs behind them in Bet365's League One market. Championship sides have played away to League One sides 13 times in the group stage of this cup. The Championship sides have won 10 of those 13 matches.    

I'd like to use Bet365's "9/2 Clyde, 2/5 Accies" odds as a comparison, while citing my view that Accies v. Caley on neutral territory would be 11/8 Accies, 9/5 Caley... but I won't, because the game is on neutral territory at Ochilview. (It's odds-on that at least one compiler for an online firm will not know that.) 

I doubt there'll be any 13/5 shot running at any UK racetrack on Tuesday that represents worse value than Peterhead. They do have an excellent cup record and layers maybe take that into account, but pricing matches up as if Rory Mac is as good a footballer as he is a plumber is plain wrong.     

[Victor von Doom]

St.Mirren v. Dunfermline on BT Sport.

Mark Walker previews the game in the Racing Post and goes for the Pars @ evens on the "double chance" market.

St.Mirren have walked in the betting. Generally 8/13, with some 13/20, when the early layers went up. They were 8/11 in Friday's Racing Post Pricewise table but had gone in to 7/10 in the same table in yesterday's paper. Today they're a standout 5/6 with Skybet in that table. Betway, Boyle's, Hill's and Victor now also calling 5/6.

I like my bet @ 10/3 for the Pars to win the group.  

[Ocular Patdown Required]

Brondby btts and crusaders btts tonight returns £67 from a fiver.