Billy Gilmour

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

He’d be better off in the English Championship than Scotland.

Serie A, they love a young Scot in that league.

[Satoshi]

On 04/01/2023 at 05:19, Gordon EF said:

18 year old Evan Ferguson scores on his second sub appearence for Brighton, gets his first start tonight and has scored again. I'm sure he'll be stright out the side again only to get a handful of sub appearences over the next few months all as part of the famous Brighton bedding in process. As someone who knows more about football, player development, and Brighton's world-famous youth development process, I'm obviously correct about this.

The rates of progression are clearly different for different positions. There's a reason why wingers tend to excel when younger but the likes of Walcott, Lennon, Redmond etc. are pretty much done at the the top level by their early 30s. Similarly with strikers, Nile Ranger and Freddie Sears made PL appearances as teenagers. 

You seem to think that Brighton don't bed in their new signings, I have provided plenty of evidence to the contrary, and your evidence that they don't do this is Evan Ferguson - he took 11 months between signing before he even appeared on Brightons bench in a Premier League match.

Any other evidence that Brighton don't bed in their new signings? 

Billy Gilmour has 41 PL appearances as a 21 year old, ahead of Fletcher and McTominay, far ahead of the likes of Keinan Dewsbury Hall. Do you remember any 21 year old PL central midfielder, with so many appearances at a young age, who went on to have an underwhelming or poor career? Two come to my mind - Tom Davies who clearly isn't very good but is still a premier league midfielder and Jack Rodwell, whose descent has been pretty well covered. Any others come to your mind? Maybe Jack Wilshire but he still managed to achieve quite a bit. Harry Winks took longer to achieve that many appearances.

On 05/01/2023 at 22:47, Lex said:

I'm surprised he's not back at Chelsea, what with the buy back in place and the window reopening. I thought that would be Potter's first act of business in January. 

There is no buy back in place, Potter does not initiate signings and he'll be lucky to even by in a job at the end of the transfer window.

As expected, every time Gilmour doesn't play they rumours will be that he will be going back to the Championship or Rangers. It just isn't going to happen and it's why nobody will take a charity bet on it. If he does decide to go on loan he would be the one pushing it, not the club, and it would be to one of the other top 4 leagues in the world. But there's a very small chance it will happen, he's clearly part of Brightons first team squad.

There's maybe a sado masochistic element in continually getting it wrong, it's probably the same people who predicted he would be going on loan to Rangers in the past three windows. Or that Norwich would terminate the loan and he would go to the Championship. Or that Chelsea wouldn't extend his contract. Or that he wouldn't get a Premier League move. 

Edited January 9, 2023 by Satoshi

[Bing.McCrosby]

5 hours ago, Satoshi said:

The rates of progression are clearly different for different positions. There's a reason why wingers tend to excel when younger but the likes of Walcott, Lennon, Redmond etc. are pretty much done at the the top level by their early 30s. Similarly with strikers, Nile Ranger and Freddie Sears made PL appearances as teenagers. 

You seem to think that Brighton don't bed in their new signings, I have provided plenty of evidence to the contrary, and your evidence that they don't do this is Evan Ferguson - he took 11 months between signing before he even appeared on Brightons bench in a Premier League match.

Any other evidence that Brighton don't bed in their new signings? 

Billy Gilmour has 41 PL appearances as a 21 year old, ahead of Fletcher and McTominay, far ahead of the likes of Keinan Dewsbury Hall. Do you remember any 21 year old PL central midfielder, with so many appearances at a young age, who went on to have an underwhelming or poor career? Two come to my mind - Tom Davies who clearly isn't very good but is still a premier league midfielder and Jack Rodwell, whose descent has been pretty well covered. Any others come to your mind? Maybe Jack Wilshire but he still managed to achieve quite a bit. Harry Winks took longer to achieve that many appearances.

There is no buy back in place, Potter does not initiate signings and he'll be lucky to even by in a job at the end of the transfer window.

As expected, every time Gilmour doesn't play they rumours will be that he will be going back to the Championship or Rangers. It just isn't going to happen and it's why nobody will take a charity bet on it. If he does decide to go on loan he would be the one pushing it, not the club, and it would be to one of the other top 4 leagues in the world. But there's a very small chance it will happen, he's clearly part of Brightons first team squad.

There's maybe a sado masochistic element in continually getting it wrong, it's probably the same people who predicted he would be going on loan to Rangers in the past three windows. Or that Norwich would terminate the loan and he would go to the Championship. Or that Chelsea wouldn't extend his contract. Or that he wouldn't get a Premier League move. 

I think the difference with gilmour and some of the players you mention like McTominay or Fletcher is that he played earlier in his career. And in terms of his minutes on the pitch he has went backwards.

The other 2 came thru a bit later and gathered more appearances as their careers progressed, which is what you would expect if they do well.

Id expect nobody is really concerned about Jack Rodwell or Tom Davies. Theres lots of examples of young players starting gilmours age and continuing to do well as a counter point. But also they don't really interest me, im looking for gilmour to do well.

In general tho.

Do you understand that wether Gilmour is currently doing poor or ok or brilliant is subjective?

Its ok if others have a different opinion.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Managers who rate Gilmour- Graham Potter, Frank Lampard.

Managers who don’t rate Gilmour- Thomas Tuchel, Roberto De Zerbi.

 

 

[Satoshi]

On 09/01/2023 at 17:45, BingMcCrosby said:

I think the difference with gilmour and some of the players you mention like McTominay or Fletcher is that he played earlier in his career. And in terms of his minutes on the pitch he has went backwards.

The other 2 came thru a bit later and gathered more appearances as their careers progressed, which is what you would expect if they do well.

Id expect nobody is really concerned about Jack Rodwell or Tom Davies. Theres lots of examples of young players starting gilmours age and continuing to do well as a counter point. But also they don't really interest me, im looking for gilmour to do well.

In general tho.

Do you understand that wether Gilmour is currently doing poor or ok or brilliant is subjective?

Its ok if others have a different opinion.

Until this season Gilmours appearances were increasing every season. They might go back slightly for this season, but that's the cost of moving to a much better and more stable club. Encsio will have far fewer appearances this season that last but his career hasn't gone backwards - far from it. Like Gilmour he has had a big money move to a stable Premier League securing a long term contract that will virtually guarantee financial security for life.

And my point wasnt that Gilmour is like Rodwell or Davies, far from it, rather it was my view that most players in Gilmours position go on to have good careers. Some don't, but the majority certainly do. Where Gilmour is now the chances are that he will have a successful top flight and international career. Hell, even the two failures ended us as multi millionaires. I also can't think of any Scottish 21 year old with 16 caps who ended up failing and falling out the game at a young age - can anyone think of one?*

I don't really understand why so many posters have a go at him, because there is so many other Scottish wonderkids who have failed / will never have an international career - like Feruz / Harper etc. Gilmour isn't like that at all, he secured a move to Brighton who are bedding him in - as they do with all their new signings - at a faster rate than other equivalent players.

The athletic recently wrote that Chelsea reluctantly sold him only after he begged to leave - so the idea that they wouldn't have given him a contract can be safely consigned to history.

And of course its subjective, virtually everything in football is. Anyone who thinks he's doing brilliantly is clearly wrong, and it's quite clear anyone who thinks he's doing poor is as well. The latter can be somewhat explained by people having ridiculously high expectations of him, but objectively he's doing perfectly fine for a midfielder his age in the Premier league. And it's ok for people to think he's doing brilliantly or terribly, just like it's ok to say Brexit has been an incredible success. I'm happy to post dispassionate evidence for people to judge themselves.

If things change and Gilmour never appears for Brighton again this season, has his contract mutually terminated for gross misconduct and ends up playing alongside Feruz in the Glasgow amateur league - I'll be the first one to say he's doing terribly.

22 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

Managers who rate Gilmour- Graham Potter, Frank Lampard.

Managers who don’t rate Gilmour- Thomas Tuchel, Roberto De Zerbi.

 

 

It's a matter of public record Tuchel wanted him to stay in the first team and not go on loan when he went to Norwich. (Source - Tuchel).

De Zerbi has not only played him this season, he has only ever spoken to him positively in the press. 

And that's the managers who supposedly don't rate him!

*I had a look at youngest Scotland debutants, of those younger than Gilmour (focusing on 2000s onwards they can be split into)

Successes: Tierney (also the youngest), McFadden, Marshall, Forrest, Patterson, Caldwell, Hanley, Fletcher

Failures: O'Connor, Paul Gallagher, Danny Wilson, Burke, Saunders, McNaughton 

Tbd: Ramsey, Hickey 

The failures refer to their international career, even if O'Connor and Burke had their moments. The other 'failures' combined managed fewer caps in their entire careers than what Gilmour has now.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Satoshi

[Bing.McCrosby]

On 11/01/2023 at 05:05, Satoshi said:

I don't really understand why so many posters have a go at him

I think this is where you're confusing things, there's like 2 guys who post things purely for a joke and to see if anyone reacts. And you react.

Everyone else is discussing gilmours lack of game time as they are concerned. And want him to do well. Lots of posters are not having a go at him.

[bleedingums]

1 hour ago, BingMcCrosby said:

I think this is where you're confusing things, there's like 2 guys who post things purely for a joke and to see if anyone reacts. And you react.

Everyone else is discussing gilmours lack of game time as they are concerned. And want him to do well. Lots of posters are not having a go at him.

It’s more than 2, but on the whole you’re correct. I’ve put so many posters on ignore off the back of this thread that it reads like Craig Burley’s teeth.

 

on topic: de zerbi has said quite a lot of positive things about Gilmour so hopefully more chances will come. But it’s been a crappy season and a bit for him.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

When was the last time he got on the pitch and bossed it? Scotland v England 18 months ago? 
What’s he done since? A very poor loan spell at Norwich, demotion to the Chelsea youth team and now in Brighton’s reserves.

If it keeps going the way it is then his legacy will be that he played well in a couple of good games for Scotland and Chelsea during Covid.

[Satoshi]

6 hours ago, BingMcCrosby said:

I think this is where you're confusing things, there's like 2 guys who post things purely for a joke and to see if anyone reacts. And you react.

Everyone else is discussing gilmours lack of game time as they are concerned. And want him to do well. Lots of posters are not having a go at him.

For those that are concerned, that's why statistics and comparison are so valuable. I hope their concerns are assuaged by the fact:

1) Gilmour has the second most appearances of any EPL central midfielder in his age group (only Jacob Ramsey has more)

2) Gilmour is following a well worn path of previous Brighton signings who get bedded in gradually. This applies to virtually every player they have signed including, but not limited to, Caicedo, MacAllister, Mitoma, Sarmiento, Encsio, Ferguson, van Hecke and Estupinan. Gilmour is playing far above the average for a first season Brighton player, but less than older more experienced players than Estupinan. That's without accounting for him joining at the very end of the window without a pre season, which would naturally restrict his appearances.

3) Related to the above, Gilmour has more top flight PL appearances (and international appearances) than almost any comparable Scottish central midfielder in recent history, he's above Fletcher and well above McTominay. He's also far above lots of players who have gone on to make a good PL career, Keinan Dewsbury Hall is regarded as a good young Premier League midfielder - he was just starting his career at league one (on loan) when Gilmours age. There are countless other examples, most starting PL central midfielders had a less impressive start to their career than Gilmour has had.

4) Gilmours professional career could fade into obscurity, along with his national career, but it would be virtually unprecedented given where he is now. It would take a series of injuries, off field issues or dramatic loss of form (or a combination of all three) and even then the evidence suggests he could still have a few big contracts in places like the US and Turkey.

5) Brighton paid £9m for Gilmour and gave him a four year lucrative contract. They are a side globally renowned for their scouting and coaching and have far more hits than misses. It seems unlikely that they would get Gilmour wrong and they clearly think so themselves hence why they are bedding him in faster than other comparable signings.

Will that stop people being worried about Gilmours lack of appearances? Probably not, but hopefully it adds some context and makes them less concerned. Gilmour will certainly be looking to add more appearances and more minutes in the second half of the season, anything else would be a disappointment to him.

 

4 hours ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

When was the last time he got on the pitch and bossed it? Scotland v England 18 months ago? 
What’s he done since? A very poor loan spell at Norwich, demotion to the Chelsea youth team and now in Brighton’s reserves.

If it keeps going the way it is then his legacy will be that he played well in a couple of good games for Scotland and Chelsea during Covid.

Maybe in terms of a motm performance, but his Norwich loan was no where bad as made out (there's a reason he's their only player to stay in the top flight).

It's also clearly documented that Chelsea were very keen to keep Gilmour and only let him go after he begged to leave.

It's good you changed your tune on De Zerbi not rating him though.

Those few games being his legacy are possible but would be virtually unpecedented. Where Gilmour is now a long successful career (at one of Europes top leagues and in the national team) seems the most likely outcome by far. It's why I'm confident and willing to bet he won't go on loan to Rangers or the Championship, it would be like voluntarily leaving a mansion to live in a tent. It could happen, but it won't.

[DA Baracus]

Maybe Gilmour would be doing better if Satoshi let him out of his dungeon more often.

[Bing.McCrosby]

7 hours ago, Satoshi said:

For those that are concerned,

Ok if now your understand that everyone isn't attacking and out to get gilmour. Theres surely no need to keep posting the same "information and statistics"

Edited January 13, 2023 by BingMcCrosby

[craigkillie]

Gilmour was fantastic in the Denmark game, I'd say that was his best performance for Scotland so far.

[Bing.McCrosby]

48 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

Gilmour was fantastic in the Denmark game, I'd say that was his best performance for Scotland so far.

Yeah he really took the game by the scruff of the neck there, id go as far as to say we wouldn't have won without him.

Scotland fans hes seen hes capable of that already. And that's why they want to see him on the pitch doing it.

[albagubrath]

On 13/01/2023 at 09:10, BingMcCrosby said:

Ok if now your understand that everyone isn't attacking and out to get gilmour. Theres surely no need to keep posting the same "information and statistics"

The main reason Satoshi that those on this specific thread are concerned is because clearly he will be unlikely to play for Scotland if he is not playing league football. I agree that he will go on to have a great career, but it is frustrating for most that we finally have a potentially world class midfielder but we are not going to be able to play him because he is not match fit.

Will he be a mainstay of our team for many years? Probably, yes.

Is he able to contribute to the team right now? Probably not.

Football is hugely skewed to the here and now and the here and now is that Gilmour is an EPL reserve.

Edit: multi quote didn’t pick up Satoshi’s post, I never can seem to get it to work on my phone.

Edited January 14, 2023 by albagubrath

[aberdeen1970]

I'm sure Gilmour won't be that bothered that he's ahead of where Dewsbury Hall is at the same age.  He'll have his own targets and I'm sure comparing himself with Jacob Ramsay doesn't form any part of them. 

I'd imagine that he'll be more than a little disappointed that in 12 months he's went from starting in the Premier League every week and starting for his country every game to being on the bench for both. 

He's either going to have to be patient for at least another 6 months or try to get out on loan again as he's well down the pecking order at Brighton currently. 

[Gordon EF]

If the story is that Gilmour was desperate to leave Chelsea then it can only because he wanted more first team football. I'm sure he could have stayed at Chelsea and got the odd start in cup games or when the squad was missing players and collected the odd few minutes from the bench regularly.

Despite the reasonably high number of appearances, the majority have been for a few mins as a sub. That's clearly not what Gilmour was after. Nobody is saying this means he's going to be a shit player or that he can't go on to become a very, very good player. It's just indicative that his progress has stalled a bit. No amount of largely irrelevant stats is going to counter that thought.

[Satoshi]

3 hours ago, albagubrath said:

The main reason Satoshi that those on this specific thread are concerned is because clearly he will be unlikely to play for Scotland if he is not playing league football. I agree that he will go on to have a great career, but it is frustrating for most that we finally have a potentially world class midfielder but we are not going to be able to play him because he is not match fit.

Will he be a mainstay of our team for many years? Probably, yes.

Is he able to contribute to the team right now? Probably not.

Football is hugely skewed to the here and now and the here and now is that Gilmour is an EPL reserve.

Edit: multi quote didn’t pick up Satoshi’s post, I never can seem to get it to work on my phone.

I think he would be able to contribute to Scotland now, and I think is match fit (he did play 90 mins in the league recently).

In modern football players take longer to adapt and there are more squad players than ever. Virtually every nation will start players who aren't guaranteed starters at their club - look at Maguire for England. Our opponents in world cup qualifying, Norway, have a starting goalie who has played 19 league games in the last 4 years. Any pro player could drop a level and play more frequently, many make a choice to stay where they are and it doesn't affect their league minutes.

Gilmour will of course want to play more (and I'm confident he will for the rest of the season) but he won't be unduly concerned as he will understand how the Brighton model works with new signings.

[bleedingums]

From watching this Brighton Liverpool game it seems that somehow Gilmour’s managed to leave Chelsea and end up at a better side… Brighton playing some brilliant stuff and Gilmour would likely get more minutes at Chelsea at the moment.

 

that could change fairly quickly though if either caicedo or macallister leave

[Theroadlesstravelled]

Brighton are a quality side.

18 year old Evan Ferguson has another assist today. He seized his opportunity in the first team and isn’t going to let it go easily. He is keeping Welbeck out the team.

Respect to the kid. He’s got a future.

[velo army]

Fair play to Satoshi for getting people to just repeat the same thing over and over again for months.

Anyway, does anyone follow Gilmour or anyone knowledgeable on Twitter who would be able to give some insight into this? I was excited for a midfield three of McTam, CalMac and Gilmour, but BCG seems to have inoculated himself against regular football and should bugger off to the abroad leagues.