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Political Betting


welshbairn

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Won a fair bit on SNP not winning an overall majority in 2016, and some extra holiday cash by buying Euros on the night of the Euro referendum. It would be nice to win on something good happening for a change.

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On 03/07/2019 at 12:23, welshbairn said:

Ladbrokes offering 18/1 boosted odds on a December General Election. Don't think anyone else is offering monthly markets, and the odds for a 2019 GE are rubbish.

There hasn't been a GE in December since 1923. Parties prefer to Spring / Summer months as it leads to a greater turnout. 

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2 minutes ago, Cardinal Richelieu said:

There hasn't been a GE in December since 1923. Parties prefer to Spring / Summer months as it leads to a greater turnout. 

We live in interesting times as the Chinese say. The Tories don't want an election at all, it will only happen if they're forced and will have little control over the timetable. There's likely to be a constitutional crisis in October so anything could happen. Much less than 18/1 I'd be leaving it alone though.

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5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

We live in interesting times as the Chinese say. The Tories don't want an election at all, it will only happen if they're forced and will have little control over the timetable. There's likely to be a constitutional crisis in October so anything could happen. Much less than 18/1 I'd be leaving it alone though.

Aye, it isn't beyond the realms of possibility, but given that Brexit isn't supposed to happen till 31st October and there's usually at least 6 week run up to a GE, that's putting it quite close to Xmas. 

Do the Chinese really say "We live in interesting times" ? 😂

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12 minutes ago, Cardinal Richelieu said:

Aye, it isn't beyond the realms of possibility, but given that Brexit isn't supposed to happen till 31st October and there's usually at least 6 week run up to a GE, that's putting it quite close to Xmas. 

Do the Chinese really say "We live in interesting times" ? 😂

They say it deadpan when everything's gone to shit.

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  • 7 months later...

bump. Did I say December? :P

Meanwhile, tempted by 33/1 for Bloomberg as VP nominee. Would offer some gravitas and reassurance to centrists, but can't think of a candidate who would welcome him onto the ticket, apart from his billions for campaigning that is. Bernie called him an oligarch the other day, but they might find a marriage of convenience to show how broad church they are. His sex could be a disadvantage too. Probably not, but at 33/1? 

 

Edited by welshbairn
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  • 8 months later...
21 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Biggest stake ever by a long way for me. (tremble....) 

image.png.d243edb3c27af6416ed5eb01dd031ba3.png

Not quite as baws oot but I went the other way. Contemplating whether to take the profit or, given things are going the way I expected them, just hold on. Although it now seems it could be weeks before getting resolved...

 

CED2E4C1-DD6E-4119-8BFB-C007FEFE95B2.png

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38 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Not quite as baws oot but I went the other way. Contemplating whether to take the profit or, given things are going the way I expected them, just hold on. Although it now seems it could be weeks before getting resolved...

 

CED2E4C1-DD6E-4119-8BFB-C007FEFE95B2.png

I'm the last person you should be taking gambling advice from, but if it was me I'd consider cashing out if it hits £200. There's a reason Trump keeps telling them to stop counting.

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Put an insurance bet on Trump to mitigate losses just in case he pulls it out of the bag. Have another bet on Biden at better odds, so I'll still be a grand up if Biden wins, but I won't be quite as hammered if he doesn't.

image.png.b6df8f967a75422173f51f57f64e851e.png

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  • 1 year later...

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