Ante post 19-20

[D Angelo Barksdale]

A bit on the early side perhaps, but technically the season starts 2 weeks today with Hearts v Dundee United in the League cup, plus the early stages of Europe. I'll update this post if anyone finds any decent offers or interesting markets.

Never had many ante post bets last season, my longshot lucky 15 was a blowout, but managed 3 out of 4 on my short price yankee, City/Liverpool forecast, Ross County and Villa to be promoted with only Sunderland letting me down. Will do the same again with probably a couple of doubles and trebles thrown in.

So far, I'm strong on the City/Liverpool forecast again and I'm going to chance Sunderland once more.

Thoughts ?

- Skybet are paying 4 places on each way bets on the English leagues.

- Hills are the only ones so far to have a W/O Celtic AND Rangers market. Aberdeen 10/11 favs.

- Bet365 have Scottish Premiership match bets.

- Hills, Betfred, BetVictor and McBookie now have odds up for Scottish seaside leagues.

Edited June 30, 2019 by Henderson to deliver .....

[CM.]

Seems weird to say cause they haven't signed a striker yet but Falkirk should utterly pish league 1 with the calibre of signing theyve brought in so far. Added to the fact that their probably nearest challengers Raith have signed mainly crap so far.

Also with VAR coming into the Premier League next season and these new handball rules I'll be having a swatch for any requestabets appearing about over x amount of penalties to be awarded over the campaign.

 

Edited June 28, 2019 by C. Muir

[deej]

Surely this is Hamiltons year... 

 

Fancy Hamilton, Arbroath, Sheffield United, Charlton for relegation. 

Derby, Sunderland, ICT and Cove for promotion.

[Im_Rodger]

Premier League - Manchester City

SkyBet Championship - Leeds United

SkyBet League 1 - Rotherham United

SkyBet League 2 - Plymouth Argyle

Ladbrokes Premiership - Rangers 

Ladbrokes Championship - Dundee United

Ladbrokes League 1 - Raith Rovers

Ladbrokes League 2 - Cove Rangers

 

I think I'll be lucky to get 3/8. 

[The Golden God]

10 minutes ago, Im_Rodger said:

Premier League - Manchester City

SkyBet Championship - Leeds United

SkyBet League 1 - Rotherham United

SkyBet League 2 - Plymouth Argyle

Ladbrokes Premiership - Rangers 

Ladbrokes Championship - Dundee United

Ladbrokes League 1 - Raith Rovers

Ladbrokes League 2 - Cove Rangers

 

I think I'll be lucky to get 3/8. 

 

Nah you'll get at least evens 

[Victor von Doom]

Not interested in anything south of the border.

Ross County look the wrong favourite in the relegation market. I'd have Accies shorter and probably St.Mirren too after the week of pantomime they've endured. My main position on that market is that 9/1 LIVINGSTON for the Wooden Spoon is just plain wrong. I'd certainly price Livi longer than the other trio of contenders, but them being at least treble the price of the other three is unfathomable to me. Even today, odds compilers might (just occasionally) be given licence to "take a position" but this looks to me as if Hills went up first at 9/1, the other compilers were maybe taken aback but sort of fell into line with quotes of 7/1 or 8/1, rather than take a position themselves. Most firms wouldn't allow their compilers to "take a position" contrary to the burgeoning market if one of the big firms has gone up first.     

Skybet's "Top Three Finish" market, which isn't quite precisely the same thing as "Without the Auld Firm", shows 10/11 Aberdeen, 10/3 Hibs, 4/1 Hearts and 7/1 Killie.  Sheep may be slightly underpriced, Killie slightly overpriced, but the book looks about right to me.

Killie 8/11 with Skybet for the top six looks a mite generous, even allowing for concerns over Joe Dolce being in the hotseat. Bet365 go 6/4 Sainties and 'Well in that market.

Ladbrokes offer 6/1 about the Forces of Darkness winning another treble.... which just about equates to 2/5 for the League and 5/4 for each of the cups. Ladbrokes go 4/11 for the League and haven't gone up for either cup yet, so it doesn't look as if they've lopped a chunk of what they genuinely believe the odds to be in order to attract mugs. I think that's about the right price for another clean sweep.   

I've said on the League Cup thread that MOTHERWELL look very overpriced for an each-way punt at Betway's 50/1 for the League Cup. They've a fairly kind group. The Dobbmeister catching them cold at Palmerston first up may be the biggest obstacle to 'Well getting maximum points and a place in the seeded hat in R2. 'Ton at home second game, Dumbarton away, then Annan at home. HIBS have an outrageous League Cup group (Alloa, Arbroath, Stirling, Elgin) so should also be seeded for R2, meaning the general 20/1 looks each-way value.

BetFred are up on the League Cup groups. PARTICK have to travel to Accies in the Lanarkshire League - a.k.a. Group F - but 7/2 for a feisty section that still has clubs messing about over venues looks a touch of value. With St.Mirren in "transitional" mode, DUNFERMLINE at 10/3 for Group H appeals. The Pars go to Paisley first up. Edinburgh City, Albion Rovers and East Kilbride shouldn't really get a blow in. 

Laugh if you wish, but I rate DUNDEE UNITED value at 11/4 for the Championship. 

Allegedly throwing £500 per week at part-time players, COVE RANGERS at 9/2 look overpriced favourites in the basement.       

[BinoBalls]

William Hill, Bet Victor, McBookie and BetFred all have odds for League 1 and 2 now. 

In League 2, Edinburgh City have strengthened after last season. The league itself is weaker with Peterhead and Clyde departing. Only Stenhousemuir and maybe Cove will have the money to be able to compete with Edinburgh’s squad over 36 games. But Cove’s chairman was in the press this week trying to downplay expectations for this season. I personally think they’ll be about 3rd. 

Brechin are having to build a squad from near scratch, Annan have lost a few of their better players, and Stirling Albion look only marginally better than last season.

So, Edinburgh are 5/1 at Hills and Bet Fred which IMO is quite incredible value, I’d make them about 2/1. I strolled up to my local Hills this afternoon like some sort of gambling hotshot and slapped a 3 figure sum on them to win the league. I look forward to losing the betslip and all the winnings in due course. 

[Derry Alli]

Probably looking at this. Will wait a week or so before placing.

 

Edit : just over 12 hours later I've went and placed this :

purely due to the fact I thought Falkirk odds would plummet post Sammon signing.

Edited July 5, 2019 by Dele

[Mitch]

I’ve stuck on Livingston to be bottom (8/1), Dundee United to win Championship (5/2) and Cove Rangers to win League 2 (9/2) as a treble.

 

As has already been posted in here, the Livi to finish bottom odds look a touch on the big side.

 

[welshbairn]

I thinks Cove's chances have been over egged after their pummelling of a really awful Berwick side. Smart money seems to be going on Edinburgh City but I'm putting the daft money on Elgin City. Their fans think they've made a few decent signings and most seasons they have a good run for at least half a season. Could come through each way at least in the top 3 for 16/1. Agree that the Livi drop is over priced.

[Victor von Doom]

League Cup.

I'm on Hibs e.w. @ 20/1. I missed that 50/1 'Well but took 40/1 e.w. 

Groups. Got the 7/2 Partick (now 11/4) & the 10/3 Pars (still there) and backed Sainties @ 10/11 - even though I think Ross will do OK. 

On Dundee @ 10/11,  'Well 8/11 and Annan 9/5 for Saturday's games. 

Edit: I think that's the 1st time I've ever failed to spot a Partick / Patrick spellchecker correction before posting. Getting old

Edited July 11, 2019 by Victor von Doom
Spellchecker

[Victor von Doom]

Mark Walker does a short League Cup preview in today's Racing Post.

He recommends RANGERS @ 4/1 outright, having missed the opening 5/1 with Fred.

Recommends FALKIRK  @ 5/1 in the group betting with Fred.

Opts for DUNDEE UNITED in tonight's game @ 6/4 with Boylesports on the "double chance" market - i.e. to win or draw. 

[jagfox]

Looks like possible value in EL Championship, EL League One and EL League Two.

[Victor von Doom]

RACING & FOOTBALL OUTLOOK preview is in this week's edition.

I'm 99% sure that their leading football tipster - "Figaro" - isn't one man. It's not a racing tipster deal like "Templegate" in the Sun or "Robin Goodfellow" in the Daily Mail, where one journo performs the role and serves for 10 or 20 years ... or Alf Rubin being "Cayton" in the Morning Star for about 50 years.

The guy who does the "Figaro" column that's based on computer data & statistics is probably the same guy every week. The "Figaro" doing the more normal tipping columns appears to change on a column-by-column basis, never mind week-by-week... and it's never seemingly Mark Walker.

Anyhow, "Figaro" pens the double-page centre spread piece in this weeks RFO. As the club-by-club predictions artistically dotted around the outside of the main piece are by Steve Davies and both "Figaro" and Mr. Davies have The Famous down to win the title, I think we can deduce that Steve Davies is "Figaro" for the preview.

Davies is a decent football tipster. He's better at darts. Was on a good run until the World Matchplay preview at the weekend. Tipped-up Gerwyn Price @ 20/1 as his main selection - Price was chinned by Stephen Bunting in Round One. Tipped Nathan Aspinall to win his quarter - Aspinall lost to Mervyn King first time out. Headlined Johnny Clayton @ 7/4 at the best first round match bet against camera-shy and stagefright specialist Ian White - a sensible tip, as Clayton made it to a final before being hamered by the red-hot Peter Wright ten days ago... or it looked sensible before White beat him 10-0. He did tip Glen Durrant for his quarter at 11/1 and, after wins over Adrian Lewis and Michael Van Gerwen, only James Wade stands between Duzza and the semis.

So, here's "Figaro"'s piece...

“So the big question is, are prices of no bigger than 4/11 about Celtic retaining their title and winning ten in a row correct, or will 9/4 shots RANGERS be able to spoil their party, writes Figaro.

  Both will be motivated by achieving, or stopping a tenth consecutive Hoops hooley because Rangers’ own record title sequence stands at nine in a row.

Neil Lennon has returned to Celtic Park to complete the job and the Northern Irishman, who won three titles as Bhoys’ manager from 2011 to 2014 and then again at the end of last season, has been welcomed back with open arms and he looks to be the perfect fit.

His team deserve to be favourites but maybe not to the extent that those early quotes suggest – prices closer to 4/6 and 6/4 look more realistic.

A look at our Analysis feature on pages 14 & 15 will show you that Rangers were catching up with their deadly rivals as the season progressed.

Celtic have a tradition of relaxing once they have become champions – they usually have a cup final to prepare for – but the rate at which Rangers closed the gap was still impressive so the nine-point gap may be a little misleading.

You could argue that the title hinged on Gers losing twice at Celtic Park. If they can draw there twice this time around, that would create a six-point swing while one win and one draw would see a ten-point shift. So at 9/4 the second favourites have a hint of value and a modest wager on them looks the bet.

Kilmarnock’s surprise presence in third place was partly due to manager Steve Clarke, who has since left to take charge of Scotland’s national team.

It’s hard to imagine them staying there but no team lost fewer away games than Killie and conceding only 31 in 38 games was some achievement.

They may fall back but 13/10 about them dropping into the bottom six looks short enough.

Ross County have started like a train in the League Cup with three wins and ten goals, capped by Sunday’s triumph at a depleted St. Johnstone, so it’s surprising to see them as relegation favourites.

LIVINGSTON look a better bet for a bottom-two finish for reasons detailed in the Scottish Analysis feature.

In the Championship, Bet365 have taken a view about DUNDEE UNITED winning the title by offering 9/4 when most go 7/4. They may well be wrong so take them on.

Falkirk are a warm order for League One at no more than 4/7 but they have had a huge squad overhaul and deployed eight debutants in their League Cup opener.

They have an easy start with two winnable home games plus trips to the promoted clubs but the price will look daft if they start slowly. It may be worth taking the 6/1 on offer about RAITH instead."

Recommendations:

RANGERS to win the Premiership – 1 point @ 9/4 general.

LIVINGSTON bottom-two finish – 1 point @ 11/4 general.

DUNDEE UNITED to win Championship – 2 points @ 9/4 Bet365.

RAITH to win League One – 1 point @ 6/1 Betfair, Power, Sky.

 

The accompanying club-by-club prose by Steve Davies goes...

1 - Rangers

2 - Celtic 

3 - Hearts

4 - Aberdeen

5 - Hibs

6 - Killie

7 - St. Johnstone

8 - Motherwell

9 - St. Mirren

10 - Ross County

11 - Hamilton

12 - Livingston

                  

Edited July 24, 2019 by Victor von Doom

[CM.]

First couple of season bets on. First one is particularly daft but think it returns about a grand if they all place.

[welshbairn]

Going to have to research "season match bet". 

[Victor von Doom]

RACING POST PREVIEW OUT TODAY!

Mark Walker does the whole 4-page Scottish section. He reckons The Darkside will hold-off The Famous for the title but he isn't investing there.

He has ABERDEEN as his headline selection in the "Without the Old Firm" market @ evens with Ladbrokes & Sky. He only recommends 2 points on that, which isn't exactlhy reckless on an even money shot. My only worry about the Sheep is if they make the groups in the Europa League. I still think they'll be 3rd, even if they're still in Europe come spring. 

Next best bet is 2 points on LEIGH GRIFFITHS to be top scorer @ 10/1 with Bet365. (That's top scorer on the field, not purchasing powder in pubs in Leith or shagging yet another sprog into a bitch somewhere - he must be close to double figures by now.) 1 point each-way on BILLY MCKAY is also suggested @ 66/1 with Bet365 and RedZone in that book.

Top season match bet is 3 points on ROSS COUNTY to best St.Mirren @ evens with Bet365.

KILMARNOCK for the bottom six is a ballsy call @ 23/17 with RedZone, even with Joe Dolce in the dugout. 2 points advised there.

MOTHERWELL to make the top six @ 6/4 with Bet365 and Sky is reckoned to be worth a 1-point investment.

1 point on LIVINGSTON @ 17/2 with Betfair / Paddy to finish bottom is also advised.

He has to put the clubs in order as part of the preview and he goes:

1 - Celtic

2 - Rangers

3 - Sheep

4 - Spoonburners

5 - Hearts

6 - 'Well

7 - St. Johnstone

8 - Killie

9 - Ross

10 - Accies

11 - St. Mirren

12 - Livi

"If Shankland stays fit they should win the league at a canter" is an eyecatching comment in the Championship preview. Not surprisingly, Mr. Walker opts for DUNDEE UNITED @ 9/4 and recommends investing 3 points at that price.

He goes with 4 points on FALKIRK @ 4/7 in Div. 3.

EDINBURGH @ 4/1 in the basement is worth 2 points, while he also advises 1 point each-way on ELGIN @ 18/1.

[Victor von Doom]

... & the odds compilers for the major firms are asked to give ther best bets for the season. One or two - including an acquaintance of mine - use to extract the urine in this feature, opting for "I strongly fancy Rovers Athletic for Division Two..." when a look at the Pricewise table showed the blighter had taken a view on Rovers Athletic, sticking them in at 12/1 when nobody else called bigger than 10s. The only tipster in the feature with "previous" for this is Alan Alger, now of Betway.

Anyhoo... here's their best Scottish bets:

Steve Freeth (Bet365) - DUNDEE UNITED to win the Championship.

Matt Jones (Betfair) - ABERDEEN in both cups & SAM COSGROVE top Premisership scorer.

Brian Wignall (Fred) - PARTICK in the Championship, COVE in League Two.

Alan Alger (Betway) - HIBS without the Old Firm.

Gerard Markey (Boyle) - DUNDEE UNITED to win the Championship.

Chris Wood (Coral) - EDINBURGH each-way in League Two.

Andy Dalton (Billy's) - RAITH to be promoted.

Colin Miles (Ladbrokes) - KILMARNOCK bottom six.

Jason Murphy (Paddy) - LEIGH GRIFFITHS each-way top Premiership scorer & DUNDEE UNITED to win the Championship.

Kane Calvin (RedZone) - EDINBURGH to win League Two.

Richard Evison (Sky) - LIVINGSTON to finish bottom of the Premiership.

James O'Loughlin (Sporting) - DUNDEE UNITED to win the Championship.    

 

     

[Victor von Doom]

Agreed. I'd want 5/1 to even think about it. We've signed well enough over the summer, given budget limitations, but I doubt we've three players who'd get in the Celtic team - even including this £4m number #5 Helander from Sweden via Bologna for consideration. The Darkside will be splashing-out north of £1m per week in wages - which is about what the very lowest payers in the EPL spend. If we can pass a few forged £50 notes with the good ones, we might be able to pay £450,000. I'll be pleased if we match last season's year-on-year-improvement and get six or eight points more than last term. Eighty-five points won't be anywhere near good enough in my opinion. Celtic will comfortably get 90 and should get 95 if pushed. There won't be a better value 2/5 shot than Celtic running at a racetrack or a dogtrack, or playing in football match, or in a fight or a golf twoball or a game of darts anywhere this week.       

[D Angelo Barksdale]

Rangers are a shite price, but I can see them pushing Celtic a bit closer this year. I've had a nibble at Rangers in the handicap market +6 is 9/1 with bet365.