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In fact, if you break down the performance of the top three into quarters of the season, you can see exactly where it was won and lost.

Quarter      1       2      3      4

Arbroath    21     24    15     10

Forfar         9      15    22     17

Raith          17     18     9      16

 

Forfar had a phenomenal 3rd quarter, on a par with the performance of Arbroath in the first two quarters, but their shite 1st quarter left them with too much to do.  Had their 1st quarter performance been on a par with even their worst of the other three then the title goes down to the wire.

Raith were relatively consistent, with the exception of a shite 3rd quarter.  If they'd returned the same points in that quarter as in the other three then the title goes to the wire.

Arbroath won it in the first two quarters.  The third was mediocre and the fourth was downright poor, although you could argue they wrapped up the title with a few games to play so took their foot off the gas.

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1 hour ago, stevoraith said:

The point was Arbroath got 20 points less in the second half of the season than they did in the first.

10 points less than we'd managed in the first half, and most folk said we had a shite first half to the season.

So if we hadn't been so monumentally shite in the second half of the season (the exact same haul of points that Arbroath had) then it would have been a much closer title race.

And in the exact same manner, Forfar had a far superior second half of the season and had they collected more than their relatively poor 24 points in the first half of the season they would have been genuine title contenders too.

Aye, if yer maw had baws....yer uncle would be your auntie. Lang Toon Style

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Fuckin hell, some folk just really dinnae like the Rovers eh?
Never mind.

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Fuckin hell, some folk just really dinnae like the Rovers eh?
Never mind.


As bad as the East Fife fans. The yokels have a real bee in their bonnet about the Raith Rovers fans.

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D10A3BC8-AB1B-450F-A201-7EED8526567B.thumb.jpeg.724fe251c506cf986e425c74d92c4c07.jpeg

The possession data that I have collected comes from the BBC results ‘match stats’. I don’t know how they work it out or how accurate it is (not very is my opinion).  There were lots of games where the possession was 51% vs. 49%. I don’t think that 2% difference has any impact on the final outcome of a match. 

Anyway, based on the previous three charts and league averages, when out performing the opposition in:

- shots on target you have ~60% chance of winning

- total shots you have ~50% chance of winning

- possession you have ~44% chance of winning

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34AF2140-753E-4413-91C4-31CEFAD98F35.thumb.jpeg.31f9ae2a89024aece1b952b9ec2b86e5.jpeg

The difference between teams possession data is minimal. Having watched Raith under McGlynn it is unsurprising  that they are top with their patient build-up. It is also unsurprising that Brechin have the lowest possession due to their low block.

This League is definitely a 50-50 second ball league. Maybe some managers will be a bit more creative with their styles of play next season. 

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Is the possession data based on that published on the BBC? Always thought that the BBC statistics were wildly inaccurate, especially at our level.  Who actually sits and compiles this data, is there someone at each ground with a set of stopwatches and a chart accurately recording the game as it happens?  Given the standard of match reports in most of the press I would doubt it

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3 hours ago, Old Diamond said:

Is the possession data based on that published on the BBC? Always thought that the BBC statistics were wildly inaccurate, especially at our level.  Who actually sits and compiles this data, is there someone at each ground with a set of stopwatches and a chart accurately recording the game as it happens?  Given the standard of match reports in most of the press I would doubt it

Yes the possession data is based on that published by the BBC. There is usually someone sitting in the press section who collects the data via an app. I think they do it for a data provider opposed to  someone working for the BBC directly (i.e., it’s the same data provided to all media sources). Clubs at this level would be better collecting their own data and double checking it with video footage of the matches. 

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34AF2140-753E-4413-91C4-31CEFAD98F35.thumb.jpeg.31f9ae2a89024aece1b952b9ec2b86e5.jpeg
The difference between teams possession data is minimal. Having watched Raith under McGlynn it is unsurprising  that they are top with their patient build-up. It is also unsurprising that Brechin have the lowest possession due to their low block.
This League is definitely a 50-50 second ball league. Maybe some managers will be a bit more creative with their styles of play next season. 
Low block, que?

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On 20/06/2019 at 21:24, 7 Eleven said:

A2DE79E7-C4A7-4FDC-966A-021246933DDD.jpeg.60bea2cf5693b88419335d9cfc732725.jpeg

PPG = Points Per Game

If someone could send this over to Stevie Aitken/The Sun/The Daily Record next time he harps on about how unfairly treated he was that would be great, thanks.

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