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Mountain Goat Stirling A

League 2 Prediction with outside bets

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I never said they were always wrong though, did I? That's just as fucking ridiculous as saying they're rarely wrong.
Inevitably, most bookies will be "wrong" at a rate somewhere between 'always' and 'rarely'.

You did say they were wrong all the time. Plus you’re avoiding my point. Apart from tissue prices bookmakers make their odds from punters betting habits and the money being placed. Market forces decide which price, not the bookie.

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The odds for Cove opened at 9/2. Why? They hadn’t done anything they hadn’t done before. And Cowden were something ridiculous.

It’s called a tissue price. They have a stab at a price to see how the market goes. If they get inundated then the price retracts. If they don’t get any takers then the price gets bigger. What they want is an even book so every team gets money on them so they show a profit whoever wins.

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17 minutes ago, onecowden said:


You did say they were wrong all the time. Plus you’re avoiding my point. Apart from tissue prices bookmakers make their odds from punters betting habits and the money being placed. Market forces decide which price, not the bookie.

Yes, and there's clearly a difference between being 'wrong all the time' and 'always being wrong'. 

I'm not avoiding your point at all. It's just got nothing to do with the point I was responding to or making. Clearly it's not only market forces that decide the odds, at least initially. Bookies have to release odds before bets can be placed. So they're going to try and make those as sensible as they can.

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Yes, and there's clearly a difference between being 'wrong all the time' and 'always being wrong'. 
I'm not avoiding your point at all. It's just got nothing to do with the point I was responding to or making. Clearly it's not only market forces that decide the odds, at least initially. Bookies have to release odds before bets can be placed. So they're going to try and make those as sensible as they can.

Yes tissue prices as I explained.

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4 minutes ago, onecowden said:


Yes tissue prices as I explained.

Great. Maybe you could explain some more things nobody is talking about or cares about? I'm sure it would be much appreciated.

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Great. Maybe you could explain some more things nobody is talking about or cares about? I'm sure it would be much appreciated.

Cheers.

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they are rarely wrong because they control the markets to make sure that is the case - yes individual punters can win if they can get on but as anybody who bets seriously knows, that is harder and harder to achieve...

anyways back tae the fitba - good result for Cove, or maybe raith are poor..

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Had a change of heart from the post I made earlier. I still stand by the fact that it’s the tightest year in years, no absolute certs at either end of the league and I predict that it will be a year of everyone taking points off each other.

Here’s my new stab in the dark:

1 - Stenhousemuir
2 - Edinburgh City
3 - Cove Rangers
4 - Annan Athletic
5 - Stirling Albion
6 - Elgin City
7 - Cowdenbeath
8 - Brechin City
9 - Queens Park
10 - Albion Rovers

Looking forward to getting things underway on Saturday though.

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Now we have squads assembled and a rough idea of the quality I am in a position to give my final standings. You will all be delighted I'm sure.

Can only echo what the others have said though there is a baw hair really between most of the teams. Even the teams who are certified gangs are no push overs like Albion Rovers and Cowdenbeath.

1. Cove

2. Edinburgh

3. Stenhousemuir

4. Annan

5. Queens Park

6. Elgin 

7. Stirling Albion 

8. Albion Rovers 

9. Cowdenbeath

10. Brechin 

 

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7 minutes ago, Neilly said:

Now we have squads assembled and a rough idea of the quality I am in a position to give my final standings. You will all be delighted I'm sure.

Can only echo what the others have said though there is a baw hair really between most of the teams. Even the teams who are certified gangs are no push overs like Albion Rovers and Cowdenbeath.

1. Cove

2. Edinburgh

3. Stenhousemuir

4. Annan

5. Queens Park

6. Elgin 

7. Stirling Albion 

8. Albion Rovers 

9. Cowdenbeath

10. Brechin 

 

wow three consecutive last place finishes for Brechin - think ye might hae a grudge!!

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47 minutes ago, Neilly said:

Now we have squads assembled and a rough idea of the quality I am in a position to give my final standings. You will all be delighted I'm sure.

Can only echo what the others have said though there is a baw hair really between most of the teams. Even the teams who are certified gangs are no push overs like Albion Rovers and Cowdenbeath.

1. Cove

2. Edinburgh

3. Stenhousemuir

4. Annan

5. Queens Park

6. Elgin 

7. Stirling Albion 

8. Albion Rovers 

9. Cowdenbeath

10. Brechin 

 

Oh dear, words of wisdom from an expert. We’re doomed.

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Such a precious bunch this year the Cowden fans. Really strange behaviour they can't take handle people thinking they are a poor side.

It's really no big deal mate.

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On 24/05/2019 at 17:19, Mountain Goat Stirling A said:

Ok guys what do you think?

Please let me know your final league positions with two outside bets for the top and maybe the bottom drop too...….

League 2 is never a clear bet.  There is always a surprise package or two - Edinburgh and Annan this year.  QP and Albion Rovers struggled after dropping down the Leagues.  I am not sure Cove will be as strong as people think.  May take time?  Berwick were finished and the poor League 2 team - so 4-0 and 3-0 was not a big deal.  

 

My prediction is:

 

Brechin City

Edinburgh City

Stirling Albion

Queens Park

Annan Athletic

Stenhousemuir

Elgin City

Cowdenbeath

Albion Rovers

Cove Rangers

 

My outside bet is : I have a feeling Edinburgh City could win the League with Stirling close by. 

Elgin City for the bottom.

 

 

wow u r seriously drunk 

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Bet 365 have Elgin @ 18/1. I think that’s good value with 1/4 of the odds a place (123). They must do it sometime.

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I think we’re a great E/W bet at that price although, betting on this league before teams show their true form is a bit like picking a horse in the Grand National - blind luck for the most part.

 This could well be the tightest league for a long time and I’m not expecting us to win it but we look decent if we can keep key players fit. 

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Such a precious bunch this year the Cowden fans. Really strange behaviour they can't take handle people thinking they are a poor side.
It's really no big deal mate.


Used to think you were a decent poster. Have to adjust my thinking there. Gross collective generalisation. Unjustified arrogance.

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I've absolutely no idea how Cove will show. The HL used to be well respected but in recent years their match-ups to LL teams in the Cup have indicated a few teams with money and everyone else pretty poor by National standards. So they've a lot to prove over 36 weeks. Longer travel for their players too. I've noticed that comments about Cove winning the league come from fans of teams who are Trapdoor candidates.

This league is often tight up until the last few games. Last year was exceptional in that 4 teams dominated the top for most of the season. Two of them have gone, replaced by teams with lower budgets so normal service will resume.

QP fans are bit excited on our showing so far but that's because we never know who or what to expect and any sign of form is unexpected at this stage. We've potential for the play-offs. EdiC have to win it this year or surely questions will be asked about the money levels next summer. ElgC would be my dark horse for the play-offs.

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9 hours ago, Velazquez Blue said:

 


Used to think you were a decent poster. Have to adjust my thinking there. Gross collective generalisation. Unjustified arrogance.

 

He/she was.

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1. Edinburgh City
2. Cove Rangers
3. Annan Athletic
4. Queen's Park
5. Elgin City
6. Stenhousemuir
7. Albion Rovers
8. Brechin City
9. Stirling Albion
10. Cowdenbeath

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