European Election - 23rd May 2019

[Kuro]

3 hours ago, Im_Rodger said:

To me that is a big win to the independence movement. 

3 SNP + 1 Green VS 2 Brexit

That'll be a big L to supporters of the Union. 

Those adapting that mindset will hand the independence movement the W. 

Supporters of the 'union' have lost every election in Scotland since 2007.

[Tibbermoresaint]

10 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The sample size for that poll was probably about 100 in Scotland, giving a margin of error of plus/minus 10 points. I doubt Brexit will get 2 seats, fucking hope not anyway. 

The sample size for the whole of the UK was over 7000 so I suspect rather more than 100 in Scotland. But you carry on making assumptions.

Edited May 18, 2019 by Tibbermoresaint
Illiteracy

[NotThePars]

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

The sample size four the whole of the UK was over 7000 so I suspect rather more than 100 in Scotland. But you carry on making assumptions.

You're right, it wasn't clear where they got the data from, thought it was from another poll with a UK sample of just over 1000. This one had 619 weighted in Scotland, plus minus about 5 points. Sub samples are notoriously inaccurate though.

[Kejan]

I've got a bit of a fear about this election from an SNP perspective. They have been polling reasonably well of late -  quite similar to the 2017 Westminster opinion polling - yet on the day, they polled 37% and who knows : apathetic SNP voters ; dull campaign and the Unionists fighting back after the 2015 landslide. There's no doubt the SNP won in 2017 - they have more MPs than the othe parties put together - but certainly under-performed and some MPs have wafer-thin majorities. You've got a large minority of the population who don't like the SNP, don't want a second referendum  - and almost mirroring the last UK election (ScotRef), the SNP have set up a website(Yes.Scot) openly talking and intending to plow on with a second referendum all aimed around being in the EU.

I think the SNP will surely win the largest share of the vote, but what if they don't actually get the third seat, never even mind the possible fight between them and others for fourth? There are a vocal minority who despise the SNP , some who may usually even vote Labour or Lib Dem e.g the nuggets  of ''I voted Remain but the country voted to leave'' etc, plus the Tories are hardly actively campaigning (One of their leaflets in England/rUK started with ''We don't want to be even fighting this election but..'' and look set to come 4th/5th in England and going by their local election performance in England a few weeks back, they don't really give a f**k about this election - all these types might end up voting for the Brexit party, heck even Ruth and Murdo in the secret of their polling booth. If enough folk do this, and the SNP only poll about mid 30s, then it could well end up with something like  : SNP 2, Brexit 2, Lab 1, Tory/Green/Lib 1.

I think at the start of the year, some Brexit voters were apathetic/refusing to vote even in this, but now its confirmed and the mess of Brexit by the Tory government, the hardcore Leavers including a shit load of Tories are aligning themselves solidly around the Brexit Party.

Maybe I'm still a bit scunnered by the last election, but if you are pro-Indy and know folk who are open to independence/SNP/Greens etc but a bit meh about politics, get them out and get them voting.

 

[Granny Danger]

I’m hoping Labour’s forthcoming humiliation will be the spark that forces Corbyn to come off the fence on Brexit.

Edited May 18, 2019 by Granny Danger

[Suspect Device]

Partly down to the Tories negative anti SNP campaign leaflet,, I have just voted SNP  for the first time in at least 15 possibly 20 years.

 

Well done Ruth. campaigning for Scotland (National party).

[John Lambies Doos]

Some interesting polls coming out tonight showing Brexit party even further ahead ..

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

44 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Some interesting polls coming out tonight showing Brexit party even further ahead ..

Does it matter though ? 

It has absolutely f*ck all effect on anyone, other than it serves to drives the Tories more to the right than they already are.  

The only real, interesting question is how high the SNP vote is in Scotland. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Does it matter though ? 
It has absolutely f*ck all effect on anyone, other than it serves to drives the Tories more to the right than they already are.  
The only real, interesting question is how high the SNP vote is in Scotland. 

45%

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

Just now, John Lambies Doos said:

1 minute ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Does it matter though ? 
It has absolutely f*ck all effect on anyone, other than it serves to drives the Tories more to the right than they already are.  
The only real, interesting question is how high the SNP vote is in Scotland. 

45%

Exactly. 

That's the important poll (for us). 

The Brexit Party supporters in England are just fucking tories anyway. The whole bunch of khunts are completely interchangeable. 

[glasgow-sheep]

I don't trust these UK wide polls with regards to the Scottish voting intention. Any word on a Scottish only poll?

[John Lambies Doos]

I don't trust these UK wide polls with regards to the Scottish voting intention. Any word on a Scottish only poll?

@Colkitto

 

[Colkitto]

7 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

@Colkitto

 

Survation are polling just now I believe. No idea if it's private polling or for public release

[cyderspaceman]

1 hour ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Does it matter though ? 

It has absolutely f*ck all effect on anyone, other than it serves to drives the Tories more to the right than they already are.  

The only real, interesting question is how high the SNP vote is in Scotland. 

If I were asked, I would say Brexit just to screw up the numbers. I can't be the only one.

[cyderspaceman]

On Farage's Edinburgh visit.

From the Guardian
Farage pledged that he would prepare candidates for the upcoming Holyrood elections in 2021 and dismissed the “howling mob outside” as “considerably smaller than it was a few years ago”. In 2013, he was finally whisked away in a police riot van under a tirade of abuse from a crowd of about 50 young demonstrators. On Friday night, police estimated that around 200 demonstrators had gathered outside the Corn Exchange.
From the Times
The episode did his media profile no harm, so it is no surprise that he confessed to being disappointed at the few dozen Scottish nationalists and anti-fascist protesters who gathered outside the Corn Exchange for his first Brexit Party rally in Scotland.

Well, somebody is lying. Obviously Farage is but who else? The police, the Guardian or the Times?

Come on Scotland, give us an SNP landslide victory in the EU election.

 

[glasgow-sheep]

Survation are polling just now I believe. No idea if it's private polling or for public release

Well here we have a Scottish only poll:

UK (Scotland), Panelbase poll:

European Election

SNP-G/EFA: 38% (+9)
BREX-EFDD: 16% (+16)
LAB-S&D: 16% (-10)
CON-ECR: 11% (-6)
LDEM-ALDE: 10% (+3)
GREENS-G/EFA: 4% (-4)
ChUK-ALDE/EPP: 2% (+2)
...

+/- vs. 2014 election

Fieldwork: N/A
Sample size: 1,021
#EP2019 #Scotland https://t.co/23rza8uY1T

[DrewDon]

10 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said:

The Brexit Party supporters in England are just fucking tories anyway. The whole bunch of khunts are completely interchangeable. 

I don't think that's right. They will do well among Brexit-supporting 'traditional' Labour voters, especially in Leave-voting northern English towns and the Midlands. 

[Jacksgranda]

On 16/05/2019 at 23:03, The_Kincardine said:

I am and I am.  No issue there BUT I am far too sober to ever consider voting for one of the cessationist arse cheeks.  I'll leave that to the small-minded folk both north and south of the border.

 

That lets me out then...

[sophia]

31 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

On this basis I think voting green on the 6th seat green/SNP toss up is probably a bad idea.

Perhaps I'm suffering a slow Sabbath but I can't get the gist of this.

My postal vote has been despatched with a single cross that the counter will associate with the good guys.