It's getting hot in here!

[throbber]

Must be at least 40 degrees in Elgin just now.

[Thorongil]

26 minutes ago, coprolite said:

 

They've quite clearly said that there's a 50% chance according to their models. 

That means there's also a 50% chance that temperatures won't reach 40. 

There's a reason they call it a forecast and not a prediction. 

There's a standard pattern. 

Boffin gives dry factual information about output of model heavily caveated. 

Journalist picks up extreme scenario for good copy. 

Sub editor picks extremes out of extreme scenario for sensationalist headline. 

Public reads headline. 

When extreme scenario fails to materialise, public blames boffin. 

People have enough of experts. 

50% likelihood is a new position is it not? And don’t the Met Office have a record consisting almost exclusively of abject failure?

[Billy Jean King]

It probably won't hit 40 today but it is more likely tomorrow with the warning effect of a day or two of roasting temps. To be forecasting smashing the all time UK record by so much is incredible. Usually these records are increased in increments of 0.1 or 0.2 degrees. Global warming in it's most obvious guise.

[Todd_is_God]

3 minutes ago, Thorongil said:

don’t the Met Office have a record consisting almost exclusively of abject failure?

Their predictions generally aren't great - see every winter going to be the worst on record and every summer going to be a scorcher for evidence of this.

[craigkillie]

32 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It's been splashed about everywhere for days that today will be over 40.

That's not a forecast, that's a prediction.

You'd be forgiven for thinking they were slightly eager for an excuse to use the red bit of their nice, shiny new heat warning scale.

 

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Their predictions generally aren't great - see every winter going to be the worst on record and every summer going to be a scorcher for evidence of this.

Unless I'm mistaken, this has been by the media, not by the Met Office themselves. The fact the media have sensationalised the story is hardly the fault of the Met Office, whose only outputs have made it very clear that some of their models forecast a 50% chance of exceeding 40 degrees.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/red-extreme-heat-warning

I'm also not sure that temperatures "only" reaching 38 or 39 degrees would really be any less of an extreme weather event anyway.

Edited July 18, 2022 by craigkillie

[Sherrif John Bunnell]

Have I opened the Covid thread by mistake?

[Stephen Malkmus]

36 degrees currently in my part of London. If you don't like being exposed to warnings, as ever, you can simply turn your telly off, put the paper down, and log out.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Stephen Malkmus

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

It probably won't hit 40 today but it is more likely tomorrow with the warning effect of a day or two of roasting temps. To be forecasting smashing the all time UK record by so much is incredible. Usually these records are increased in increments of 0.1 or 0.2 degrees. Global warming in it's most obvious guise.

It matters not a jot what is forecast if it doesn't actually happen, though.

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Their predictions generally aren't great - see every winter going to be the worst on record and every summer going to be a scorcher for evidence of this.

I think you're mistaking the Daily Express for the Met Office.

[coprolite]

2 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

Unless I'm mistaken, this has been by the media, not by the Met Office themselves. The fact the media have sensationalised the story is hardly the fault of the Met Office, whose only outputs have made it very clear that some of their models forecast a 50% chance of exceeding 40 degrees.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/red-extreme-heat-warning

I'm also not sure that temperatures "only" reaching 38 or 39 degrees would really be any less of an extreme weather event anyway.

But we were promised 40°

[The Master]

It’ll probably “officially” hit 40 degrees for a few seconds at Heathrow. 

[Billy Jean King]

Whether we hit 40 degrees or not isn't the issue.
The issue is the constant drama queenery which seems to have infected every institution in the country.
It's a few days of good weather.
By all means, don't do anything stupid but FFS enjoy it while it lasts.

There have been constant "phew what a scorcher" and "the big freeze" headlines in every UK media outlet all my life, it's hardly a new phenomenon. I remember being sent home or not having to go to school on several occasions due to various weather phenomena and also have been sent home or told to WFH numerous times too over the last 40 years. It's nothing new but the UK topping 40c (if it happens) would be very very exceptional.

[BTFD]

Just now, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

Have I opened the Covid thread by mistake?

Apparently we're going to extrapolate our libertorian obsessions to every aspect of life for the foreseeable future.

Reminds me of Trump staring into the solar eclipse because what do experts know? Look at the mess they've got us into!

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

The fact the media have sensationalised the story is hardly the fault of the Met Office

I don't know, it is the Met Office who have issued a red warning for what, currently anyway, looks like being what was previously referred to as "a cracking day".

36 degrees in London, whilst obviously very warm, doesn't immediately strike me as massively out of of the ordinary.

36 degrees in Glasgow would be a different story.

[TheScarf]

5 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

Have I opened the Covid thread by mistake?

The scaremongering is very similar.

[craigkillie]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

I don't know, it is the Met Office who have issued a red warning for what, currently anyway, looks like being what was previously referred to as "a cracking day".

36 degrees in London, whilst obviously very warm, doesn't immediately strike me as massively out of of the ordinary.

36 degrees in Glasgow would be a different story.

The Met Office have issued a warning based on a set of very clear criteria, outlined in detail based on their modelling. They've identified a 50% chance of the temperature exceeding 40 degrees, and have warned people about this, which is literally why they exist. The fact that the metaphorical coin might come up with heads this time doesn't mean that there wasn't the same chance of it coming up tails.

[Newbornbairn]

You can write it down for them, you can't understand it for them. 

[ICTChris]

36 degrees would be an exceptionally hot day in London.  From a bit of Googling the hottest day in modern recorded history in London was 38, with most places that day getting 37.

36 degrees in Glasgow would be the hottest every recorded temperature in Scotland by about three or four degrees.

[TheScarf]

The hottest temperature I've ever been in is 37 degrees and it honestly didn't feel any hotter than 23/24 like it is just now in Inverness.  Folk on Twitter are acting as if this is their last day on Earth.

[ICTChris]

Just now, TheScarf said:

The hottest temperature I've ever been in is 37 degrees and it honestly didn't feel any hotter than 23/24 like it is just now in Inverness.  Folk on Twitter are acting as if this is their last day on Earth.

I think I've been in the high 30s when I've been in Cyprus and it's pretty brutal.  Obvious difference is that I don't have to work and I was in a house designed for heat with a pool etc.  Not like here where I've wedged all my double glazed windows open and have spend the morning filling a paddling pool to sit in.