Hedgecutter Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Connolly Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said: It's slightly disturbing that this could just as easily be a genuine post in the Mail or Express comments section 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loonytoons Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 There was a geneticist called William Hill but he died last year. He preferred to be called Bill, I bet I know why.Bet X win Y is a promotion with William Hill bookies though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Bit cloudy in Edinburgh atm. Very disappointed in the frauds at the so-called Met Office for not predicting this, although they did actually predict it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nkomo-A-Gogo Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, 101 said: Climate denial thread for this pish Withdraw! 13.30secs 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 It’s now raining! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, ICTChris said: It’s now raining! Looks like the talk of 40 and 42 degrees has been quietly dropped. And yesterday’s record for Wales is STILL being VAR checked. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 9 hours ago, Thorongil said: They aren’t though, are they? Yes they are. The big bookies employ statisticians and data scientists to produce models for their odds to maximise their profit. It's not the 1970s any more where it's just a guy working it out in his head and writing it on a board. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DA Baracus Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Are there genuinely folk in here who think they've 'got one over' on the Met Office and scientists/science in general?! It's surely just an act or wind up. Surely! 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Looks like the talk of 40 and 42 degrees has been quietly dropped. And yesterday’s record for Wales is STILL being VAR checked. [emoji38]VAR checked ?It smashed the previous record by almost 2c which is virtually unheard of as was discussed yesterday. It will be ratified it's more a case of how far over the line was it as opposed to was it over the line if you want a football analogy. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, craigkillie said: Yes they are. The big bookies employ statisticians and data scientists to produce models for their odds to maximise their profit. It's not the 1970s any more where it's just a guy working it out in his head and writing it on a board. Data Scientist is a completely made up job title and does not qualify as science. They are indeed statisticians. But if we are now ascribing statistical modelling i.e Ladbrokes as “science” then what are they doing - predicting or forecasting? They are synonymous according to the actual language but I was told here yesterday there is a distinction between the two. That being that scientific forecasts are to be given MORE leeway that someone predicting the football scores. Are the hedge fund managers scientists as well? Edited July 19, 2022 by Thorongil 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said: VAR checked ? It smashed the previous record by almost 2c which is virtually unheard of as was discussed yesterday. It will be ratified it's more a case of how far over the line was it as opposed to was it over the line if you want a football analogy. They keep saying “provisionally”. Normally when a record is actually broken we find out that day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 32C recorded at several locations at 9am. It's all but guaranteed today will be one of the hottest days ever recorded in the UK. Personally I would be surprised if we do not break the 38.7C all time record set 3 years ago. While there is some moaning about the tone of the news reports, today is a day when people who are vulnerable and in poorly ventilated rooms, houses etc are at real risk of hospitalisation and death. Heat waves are the deadliest extreme weather events we get in modern Britain. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hedgecutter Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Imagine fighting against climate change, telling us it'll kill countless folk, yet desperately hoping that the temperature tops 40 for self-serving "told you so" purposes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Thorongil said: Data Scientist is a completely made up job title and does not qualify as science. They are indeed statisticians. But if we are now ascribing statistical modelling i.e Ladbrokes as “science” then what are they doing - predicting or forecasting? They are synonymous according to the actual language but I was told here yesterday there is a distinction between the two. That being that scientific forecasts are to be given MORE leeway that someone predicting the football scores. Are the hedge fund managers scientists as well? I'll take that predicting v forecasting thing as it was only me that said it. My understanding was that a prediction was a statement about what would happen but a forecast was about the probabilities of what might happen. It appears that no-one else has ever heard of that distinction so i'll concede that i got that wrong. They're not exactly the same though. Forecast is a subset of prediction. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Thorongil said: Data Scientist is a completely made up job title and does not qualify as science. They are indeed statisticians. But if we are now ascribing statistical modelling i.e Ladbrokes as “science” then what are they doing - predicting or forecasting? They are synonymous according to the actual language but I was told here yesterday there is a distinction between the two. That being that scientific forecasts are to be given MORE leeway that someone predicting the football scores. Are the hedge fund managers scientists as well? Data scientists are statisticians, yes, and statistics is very obviously a branch of science. Therefore people working in those roles are scientists. A weather forecast and a football odds forecast are both predictions made from a statistical model. They take all the available data and then produce some form of output which indicates the most likely outcomes, and usually also an associated level of uncertainty. The only practical difference between the two is how sophisticated the models are - I'd expect that the Met Office have better modelling, and they also have more data to use, but at the same time they are modelling a far more complex system. Edited July 19, 2022 by craigkillie 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 10 minutes ago, Thorongil said: They keep saying “provisionally”. Normally when a record is actually broken we find out that day. https://www.reuters.com/article/europe-weather-britain-idUSS8N1W802O Its announced provisionally on the day. They do some further checks before entering the record books. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Despite what my phone is telling me about brilliant sunshine and heat right now, it's very overcast and a bit showery. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, DA Baracus said: Are there genuinely folk in here who think they've 'got one over' on the Met Office and scientists/science in general?! It's surely just an act or wind up. Surely! No, they're real. Dunning-Kruger in full effect. A few folk got themselves a lot of attention on here during COVID by articulating most people's frustration, and are really, really missing it now. Apparently they're going to disappear down the big-brain Objectivist rabbit hole on any and all subjects to try and get it back. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 37 minutes ago, coprolite said: I'll take that predicting v forecasting thing as it was only me that said it. My understanding was that a prediction was a statement about what would happen but a forecast was about the probabilities of what might happen. It appears that no-one else has ever heard of that distinction so i'll concede that i got that wrong. They're not exactly the same though. Forecast is a subset of prediction. Forecast is a subset of a prediction? What do you mean? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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