dorlomin Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Over night models seem to think some places might break 40C today, especially around Cambridge and the East Midlands. Very dry ground and warm air in the morning to start, with very clear skies. Tonight will be much cooler than last night. Rain in places tomorrow. So some cooling. By 3pmish we should have a clear idea how likely a record will be. By half 5 all the 4pm results that come in automatically will have been collated and we will know the provisional figures. Yesterday was the third hottest day ever recorded at 38.1C Possibly last night was the warmest night in UK but not seen any official data yet. Suns up so everywhere will now be warming. For the curious, Scotland's record is 32.9C in August 2003. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Whatever happened to Greta Thunburg? She’s 19 now and too old for the ruling elite? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clown Job Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, steve55 said: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clown Job Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Mate, nobody cares you used to be in the army and was sent to Afghanistan or that you remember 1976 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Bit hot today. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Bully Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 12 hours ago, Todd_is_God said: Given how the former worked out, this isn't a particularly robust argument tbh. You mean it really was over as a public health emergency in August 2020? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: So the current rate of change is exactly the same as from 1700 - 1735? And you still think we can influence it? -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said: So the current rate of change is exactly the same as from 1700 - 1735? And you still think we can influence it? Yes 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: Yes Wow -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted July 19, 2022 Author Share Posted July 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Wow Climate denial thread for this pish 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: So the current rate of change is exactly the same as from 1700 - 1735? And you still think we can influence it? That's local data for a shortish period. Here is some less local data for a slightly longer period. Climate models can account for the variation in the medieval warm period and the little ice age through solar variation and volcanic activity. These can't account for recent changes. That rise after 1700 looks like a return to the mean following the little ice age, plus the overshoot that results from feedback mechanisms in a dynamic system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 Now we wait for this evenings data. Normally we would expect the south eastern counties to be the warmest but there is some cloud for them, so this is why its the Cambs\ east midlands region that will be the most cloudless so the most likely to crack a record. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 The one thing I’ll say about this extreme weather warning is that it doesn’t half make the news boring. A bit like covid they go into state broadcaster mode where they just repeat their safety messages over and over and over. Im no sure why it requires GP’s, climate researchers, meteorologists and others to tell people to drink water. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 (edited) 42 minutes ago, coprolite said: That's local data for a shortish period. Here is some less local data for a slightly longer period. Climate models can account for the variation in the medieval warm period and the little ice age through solar variation and volcanic activity. These can't account for recent changes. That rise after 1700 looks like a return to the mean following the little ice age, plus the overshoot that results from feedback mechanisms in a dynamic system. Can they really, though? Because, just like the claims about what is going to happen they are, as you mentioned, models. Models are riddled with inaccuracies - we have two charts on this very page showing completely opposite trends for the period around 1700 for example. Gambling your entire economic policy on the basis of estimates and error laden models would be an atrocious bet at any time, never mind so soon after it became very obvious to everyone just how inaccurate the majority of models actually are. "Net Zero" is a gamble and, given some of the countries not backing it, a gamble with really unfavourable odds. This will be my final post on this subject but the most rational response to the potential for warmer temperatures in the future is to adapt and invest in infrastructure designed to cope with it. But, of course, there is less money to be made from that. Edited July 19, 2022 by Todd_is_God -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venti Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said: Wow 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 BBC article on people who live in 'hot spots', including Yoker. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62126463 Seems like people who live in crappy blocks of flats have this issue. Having shaded areas and green space nearby is a big help. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamamafegan Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 BBC article on people who live in 'hot spots', including Yoker. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, ICTChris said: BBC article on people who live in 'hot spots', including Yoker. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62126463 Seems like people who live in crappy blocks of flats have this issue. Having shaded areas and green space nearby is a big help. Liz frae Yoker laying it on more than a bit thick though with this whopper: Quote Shutting the blinds brings the added expense of switching on the lights. It quite clearly doesn't, in Glasgow, in the middle of July. You have 17 fucking hours of total daylight. Why do people feel the need to exaggerate and bullshit in these stories? Edited July 19, 2022 by vikingTON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted July 19, 2022 Share Posted July 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Can they really, though? Because, just like the claims about what is going to happen they are, as you mentioned, models. Models are riddled with inaccuracies - we have two charts on this very page showing completely opposite trends for the period around 1700 for example. Gambling your entire economic policy on the basis of estimates and error laden models would be an atrocious bet at any time, never mind so soon after it became very obvious to everyone just how inaccurate the majority of models actually are. "Net Zero" is a gamble and, given some of the countries not backing it, a gamble with really unfavourable odds. This will be my final post on this subject but the most rational response to the potential for warmer temperatures in the future is to adapt and invest in infrastructure designed to cope with it. But, of course, there is less money to be made from that. The two charts show the exact same thing. Yes, the models can account for those fluctuations. The question is whether the explanations derived from those models is correct. Given that the models currently in use can account for many different fluctuations over millions of years using the same variables then the chance of them being wildly wrong retrospectively is negligible. Obviously AGW is just a theory, but it's a theory like gravity or evolution by natural selection which is generally accepted and supported by a large body of evidence. The power of the model to predict an exact future state and the exact path to that future state is more limited. That's why the scientists will usually report in terms of confidence intervals. There is wide consensus that the temperature will continue to rise because of human CO2 emissions and that rise won't be insignificant. The local effects of that and the effect on any given day are far more difficult to say. Gambling your entire economic policy on the infinitesimal chance that all climate scientists but 2 are wrong would be the high risk option here. There is plenty of room for debate as to whether trying to curb emissions is an effective strategy or whether mitigation is the way forward. Absolutely baffled by your final tin foil hat assertion though. Less money to be made through continuing to burn fossil fuels is an absolute zinger. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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