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It's getting hot in here!


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45 minutes ago, Thorongil said:

You’re a risky claiming that prediction and forecast are not synonymous. Such fragility! 😆

Not really.

Who is going to win the Premiership this year?  Some people would say it could be one of two teams, based on how much money those teams have.  That would be a forecast - even if some other team wins.

Who is going to win the Scottish Cup?  Possibly one of those two teams but it is more of a lottery so ultimately you can only make a prediction.

Edited by Fullerene
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4 hours ago, dorlomin said:

4b1fe5dd-ed9d-4244-9dfd-cca65a831c04.png

 

 

bell-graph_0.gif

 

We get a warm mass of air coming up off the Sahara as in this week, or back in 2019 when we had a sustained high pressure over the UK for a couple of weeks, the maximum temperatures are made (on average) higher than when such weather phenomena happened before. 

The physics is simple, more CO2 means more IR coming back to the surface. This then in turn means more water vapor can be held in the atmosphere which also increases the greenhouse effect acting as a feedback. There is a lot more to the science, but on the whole what had been predicted back in the 70s and 80s is broadly happening. 

This is a bit repeating the basics. But it seems the basics are back under discussion again. 

 

trenbert-fasullo-kiehl-2009.png

Edited on the left is the incoming short wave radiation, that hits the ground warming it up. That the emits infrared (long wave radiation). That then gets trapped in the atmosphere and some returned to the ground, that extra bit is in very basic terms the greenhouse effect. 

The more greenhouse gasses the more infrared comes back and warms the surface. 

 

Precisely.

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46 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I see the heat has unfortunately attracted all the screeching forum chimps out of the gallery to which they were confined and they are now metaphorically flinging their faeces all over the place, ruining yet another half decent thread. Well done guys!

And with that, I'm out of this discussion.

Enjoy yourselves folks.

 

41 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

Don't go !!

While the sun smiles, stick around and laugh a while 

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2 minutes ago, Wee Bully said:

Who could have guessed that the people who know more about epidemics than epidemiologists also know more about the weather than the Met Office?

I for one am stunned.  

Given how the former worked out, this isn't a particularly robust argument tbh.

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Who could have guessed that the people who know more about epidemics than epidemiologists also know more about the weather than the Met Office?
I for one am stunned.  
All we need now is for it to be branded a "shan heatwave". Surprised we haven't had that one yet.
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If we were in a country where temperatures regularly reached the high 30s, we'd probably have air conditioning in our hospitals and people would be well used to the risks. Likewise low temperatures and systems to keep transport going at 15 below if we were in a country used to that. Extreme weather warnings seem appropriate to our usual climate. Inverness is positively balmy though, as the Met Office forecast.

Edited by welshbairn
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"Taps aff"

"Well, actually, I think you'll find that taps were only a maximum of 95% aff today, so your declaration was both inaccurate and clearly designed to scare the sheep into buying unnecessary protective lotion. So-called 'experts' such as yourself are clearly only seeking attention to compensate for your inadequacy. I elaborate on this phenomena in my  other 10,000 posts and replies on this subject."

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6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If we were in a country where temperatures regularly reached the high 30s... people would be well used to the risks.

People are well aware of the risks, though. We jet off to enjoy these temperatures on an annual basis.

Installing air conditioning in hospitals etc, incidentally, would be a far better way to spend money, though, than chasing the pointless net zero pipe dream.

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2 hours ago, craigkillie said:


This is like claiming the bookies are wrong whenever an outsider wins a sporting event. That's why they're consistently going out of business due to massive losses, I suppose.

Oh, are the bookies scientists? 

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