It's getting hot in here!

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Fucking love hot days. Great to see the armchair scientists out in force.

[coprolite]

15 minutes ago, Thorongil said:

I think this constitutes confidently predicting 40 degrees again now for tomorrow. Certainly no mention of 50% probability in this forecast.

England didn’t get near its record today, a whole 1.3 below. Wales STILL being VAR checked for it’s 0.1 degree.

 

 

No it doesn't 

It's a forecast not a prediction. 

[Thorongil]

6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

You don't think 1.3 degrees below the record is worth putting a warning out for?

Did I say that at any point?

[Thorongil]

2 minutes ago, coprolite said:

No it doesn't 

It's a forecast not a prediction. 

A forecast is a prediction. They are mutual synonyms. 

[Thorongil]

10 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

Only if you don't understand how probability or more generally statistics works, which I suppose you have already shown is the case.

It is a prediction, but it is not necessarily a confident one. It would be impractical to show the associated uncertainty on a map like that, but it still exists.

I watched the wee guy talking in the video. He predicted 40 and possibly as high as 41 with no caveats.

[dorlomin]

 

[Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach]

2 hours ago, Todd_is_God said:

This would perhaps be more believable had the climate not been much, much colder (and much, much warmer) than it is now, throughout the history of the Earth.

Ultimately, the climate will do as it likes, and there is nothing we can do to stop it. Whether or not we are able to slow it down or speed it up by a small margin is really neither here nor there as, without being able to actually control the climate (because we can't), it doesn't actually matter in the grand scheme of things.

The more sensible course of action is to accept this and invest and prepare for the climate warming rather than pissing into the wind trying to prevent the inevitable.

[Thorongil]

Wow!!! Hot day in Wales. Smashed that record. 
Provisionally.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

The closest we came to social unrest was John Broon looking for enemies after the Rangers died.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver

[craigkillie]

I watched the wee guy talking in the video. He predicted 40 and possibly as high as 41 with no caveats.

When you watch any weather forecast, the caveat is implied. They are predicting the future, and are obviously not guaranteeing anything. They have a model, and from that model they come up with the most likely outcome, which in this case is 40 degrees.

No prediction is going to be 100% accurate, so if you only wanted them to display things where they were absolutely certain then the map would be blank every single day and there wouldn't be any point in a weather forecast.

[itzdrk]

Fair play to all the lads and lassies that don't have sitty down jobs today.  Some graft and well in for not quitting if you managed it 

[resk]

If the hottest temperature in England today is 1.3 degrees below the record, surely that demonstrates that the Earth is in fact getting colder, not warmer?  That's the bloody wokes and scientists telt!  

[TheScarf]

Everyone on this thread - 

 

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

If CO2 is the sole driver of the current warming of the climate, then it must be shown firstly what was responsible for previous periods of warming and cooling and also why they do not apply at all here.

Have you been sitting in direct sunlight all day?

 

[The Holiday Song]

 

There was no apologies!

[Todd_is_God]

38 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

You don't think 1.3 degrees below the record is worth putting a warning out for?

That depends on what the record is.

In this case, no, a red warning was not appropriate.

[Fullerene]

35 minutes ago, Thorongil said:

A forecast is a prediction. They are mutual synonyms. 

Not true.  I can predict who will win the World Cup by looking at the horoscopes of the players.  Highly unlikely to be in any way accurate.

A forecast is where they run several models of weather patterns and identify the common ground in all of them.  Far more likely to be correct.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Fullerene

[Todd_is_God]

Another L on a day of Ls for the Met Office - it's just started raining in an area they claimed had 0% chance of rain

[craigkillie]

Another L on a day of Ls for the Met Office - it's just started raining in an area they claimed had 0% chance of rain

This is like claiming the bookies are wrong whenever an outsider wins a sporting event. That's why they're consistently going out of business due to massive losses, I suppose.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

Not true.  I can predict who will win the World Cup by looking at the horoscopes of the players.  Highly unlikely to be in any way accurate.

A forecast is where they run several models of weather patterns and identify the common ground in all of them.  Far more likely to be correct.

And yet, wrong