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It's getting hot in here!


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4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The ridicule that I saw was placed at the Met Office A - confidently predicting 40°C and B - rolling out a red warning for what has essentially amounted to what was previously called a very nice day, not too dissimilar to what many people go on holiday to sit about in and manage just fine.

The hyperbole leading up to today was embarassing, knicker-wetting nonsense.

Covid experts were rightly lampooned for their ridiculous doom-mongering predictions - this today is no different.

Stop beating that straw man, it's dead. 

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The ridicule that I saw was placed at the Met Office A - confidently predicting 40°C and B - rolling out a red warning for what has essentially amounted to what was previously called a very nice day, not too dissimilar to what many people go on holiday to sit about in and manage just fine.
The hyperbole leading up to today was embarassing, knicker-wetting nonsense.
Covid experts were rightly lampooned for their ridiculous doom-mongering predictions - this today is no different.

Again, they didn't "confidently predict" it, they said it had a 50% chance of happening, which is literally the least confident any prediction of 40 degree heat could be.
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1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

Talking of predictions, Welshy adding absolutely nothing to another thread is something entirely predictable, however.

Todd still playing a beige Lawrence Fox is equally unsurprising.

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2 minutes ago, craigkillie said:


Again, they didn't "confidently predict" it, they said it had a 50% chance of happening, which is literally the least confident any prediction of 40 degree heat could be.

I think 50% was a revised prediction today. Wasn’t it? 
Prior to this it was confidently predicted.

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I think we went from there will be no 40 degrees as predicted to posting an image of the Met Office claiming 95% certainty or records being broken in England and Wales to a “provisional” breaking of a record in Wales by a massive 0.1 of a degree. 
Do try to keep up.

Was the record in Wales broken or not?
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2 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

Again, they didn't "confidently predict" it, they said it had a 50% chance of happening, which is literally the least confident any prediction of 40 degree heat could be.

Forecasters have been spashing confident predictions of 40 degree plus heat all over the place since last week, right up until last night. A last minute change to "50% chance" because they were ultimately wrong does not change that.

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48 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

The argument is that whilst the overwhelming majority of climate change is natural, man-made effects account for around 5%, and it's this 5% which is enough to push the climate out of balance. I understand that argument and it's persuasive. Unfortunately they can't provide a smoking gun (as they had to do with the ozone layer) so there is always room for doubt.

41-Figure8.18-1.png

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf

We have broad estimates of the natural forcings over the past 120 years. There is no change to a major component of the system that can explain the changes we have seen other than CO2. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/35066553

Quote

 Changes in the Earth's greenhouse effect can be detected from variations in the spectrum of outgoing longwave radiation8,9,10, which is a measure of how the Earth cools to space and carries the imprint of the gases that are responsible for the greenhouse effect11,12,13. Here we analyse the difference between the spectra of the outgoing longwave radiation of the Earth as measured by orbiting spacecraft in 1970 and 1997. We find differences in the spectra that point to long-term changes in atmospheric CH4, CO2 and O3 as well as CFC-11 and CFC-12. Our results provide direct experimental evidence for a significant increase in the Earth's greenhouse effect that is consistent with concerns over radiative forcing of climate.

 

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6 minutes ago, Thorongil said:

I think 50% was a revised prediction today. Wasn’t it? 
Prior to this it was confidently predicted.

 

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Forecasters have been spashing confident predictions of 40 degree plus heat all over the place since last week, right up until last night. A last minute change to "50% chance" because they were ultimately wrong does not change that.

The press release from 3 days ago when the warning was released included the 50%. 

You guys are just making shit up

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Forecasters have been spashing confident predictions of 40 degree plus heat all over the place since last week, right up until last night. A last minute change to "50% chance" because they were ultimately wrong does not change that.
Don't put Radio 2 on. You would explode at the number of times Steve Wright has told the nation this is "The hottest Day Ever". (Caveat he could be broadcasting from Wales I suppose)
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3 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

41-Figure8.18-1.png

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf

We have broad estimates of the natural forcings over the past 120 years. There is no change to a major component of the system that can explain the changes we have seen other than CO2. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/35066553

 

This is much better than mine. Good job. 

He'll be along with his general purpose dismissal of averages and why they should be ignored any second. 

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Stuck in an office in this heat, without any air con. Our buildings are meant for heat to be kept inside to the max. This is genuinely fucking hellish. We aren't allowed to wear smart shorts/chino shorts with a shirt either, but women can wear skirts. Seems reasonable. 

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