coprolite Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: The ridicule that I saw was placed at the Met Office A - confidently predicting 40°C and B - rolling out a red warning for what has essentially amounted to what was previously called a very nice day, not too dissimilar to what many people go on holiday to sit about in and manage just fine. The hyperbole leading up to today was embarassing, knicker-wetting nonsense. Covid experts were rightly lampooned for their ridiculous doom-mongering predictions - this today is no different. Stop beating that straw man, it's dead. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, coprolite said: Stop beating that straw man, it's dead. What straw man? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Talking of predictions, Welshy adding absolutely nothing to another thread is something entirely predictable, however. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 The ridicule that I saw was placed at the Met Office A - confidently predicting 40°C and B - rolling out a red warning for what has essentially amounted to what was previously called a very nice day, not too dissimilar to what many people go on holiday to sit about in and manage just fine. The hyperbole leading up to today was embarassing, knicker-wetting nonsense. Covid experts were rightly lampooned for their ridiculous doom-mongering predictions - this today is no different.Again, they didn't "confidently predict" it, they said it had a 50% chance of happening, which is literally the least confident any prediction of 40 degree heat could be. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said: Talking of predictions, Welshy adding absolutely nothing to another thread is something entirely predictable, however. Todd still playing a beige Lawrence Fox is equally unsurprising. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve_Wilkos Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said: I see yer da has been on Facebook 24 minutes ago, Thorongil said: "look at this funny "me me", darling" 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, craigkillie said: Again, they didn't "confidently predict" it, they said it had a 50% chance of happening, which is literally the least confident any prediction of 40 degree heat could be. I think 50% was a revised prediction today. Wasn’t it? Prior to this it was confidently predicted. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empty It Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 This weather is class. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 I think we went from there will be no 40 degrees as predicted to posting an image of the Met Office claiming 95% certainty or records being broken in England and Wales to a “provisional” breaking of a record in Wales by a massive 0.1 of a degree. Do try to keep up.Was the record in Wales broken or not? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, craigkillie said: Again, they didn't "confidently predict" it, they said it had a 50% chance of happening, which is literally the least confident any prediction of 40 degree heat could be. Forecasters have been spashing confident predictions of 40 degree plus heat all over the place since last week, right up until last night. A last minute change to "50% chance" because they were ultimately wrong does not change that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Just a few posts away from oaksoft claiming to owning a weather prediction service 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 48 minutes ago, oaksoft said: The argument is that whilst the overwhelming majority of climate change is natural, man-made effects account for around 5%, and it's this 5% which is enough to push the climate out of balance. I understand that argument and it's persuasive. Unfortunately they can't provide a smoking gun (as they had to do with the ozone layer) so there is always room for doubt. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf We have broad estimates of the natural forcings over the past 120 years. There is no change to a major component of the system that can explain the changes we have seen other than CO2. https://www.nature.com/articles/35066553 Quote Changes in the Earth's greenhouse effect can be detected from variations in the spectrum of outgoing longwave radiation8,9,10, which is a measure of how the Earth cools to space and carries the imprint of the gases that are responsible for the greenhouse effect11,12,13. Here we analyse the difference between the spectra of the outgoing longwave radiation of the Earth as measured by orbiting spacecraft in 1970 and 1997. We find differences in the spectra that point to long-term changes in atmospheric CH4, CO2 and O3 as well as CFC-11 and CFC-12. Our results provide direct experimental evidence for a significant increase in the Earth's greenhouse effect that is consistent with concerns over radiative forcing of climate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: What straw man? "the Met Office A - confidently predicting 40°C" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 "look at this funny "me me", darling" Yogi looks well 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Thorongil said: I think 50% was a revised prediction today. Wasn’t it? Prior to this it was confidently predicted. 5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Forecasters have been spashing confident predictions of 40 degree plus heat all over the place since last week, right up until last night. A last minute change to "50% chance" because they were ultimately wrong does not change that. The press release from 3 days ago when the warning was released included the 50%. You guys are just making shit up 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Jean King Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Forecasters have been spashing confident predictions of 40 degree plus heat all over the place since last week, right up until last night. A last minute change to "50% chance" because they were ultimately wrong does not change that.Don't put Radio 2 on. You would explode at the number of times Steve Wright has told the nation this is "The hottest Day Ever". (Caveat he could be broadcasting from Wales I suppose) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, dorlomin said: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf We have broad estimates of the natural forcings over the past 120 years. There is no change to a major component of the system that can explain the changes we have seen other than CO2. https://www.nature.com/articles/35066553 This is much better than mine. Good job. He'll be along with his general purpose dismissal of averages and why they should be ignored any second. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, coprolite said: The press release from 3 days ago when the warning was released included the 50%. You guys are just making shit up Fair enough, I did not see that 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFC. Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Stuck in an office in this heat, without any air con. Our buildings are meant for heat to be kept inside to the max. This is genuinely fucking hellish. We aren't allowed to wear smart shorts/chino shorts with a shirt either, but women can wear skirts. Seems reasonable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherrif John Bunnell Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, doulikefish said: Just a few posts away from oaksoft claiming to owning a weather prediction service It going to turn out that he's Piers Corbyn. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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