Euro 2020 Play-offs

[charger29]

Given the pretty poor discussion on how the Euro play-offs work from the BBC (Radio Scotland especially), I figured I would create a thread and update it after the March, June, September, October and November fixtures to show the team/s we are lined up to face in March 2020.

Things are a bit mixed up this early in the qualifying groups. Once the likes of Denmark, Netherlands, Portugal & Croatia presumably move up their groups, everything will clear up a bit. Equally, if Serbia continue on from their good result in Portugal, things will get less predictable for our play-off route.

The March 2019 play-off picture is quite simple with few complexities. None of the C league's top teams are 1st or 2nd in their quali groups so they all go to the play-offs.

As of Round 2 of 10, the C play-offs are:
 

Scotland vs Finland

Norway vs Serbia
 

Whatever happens it’s very unlikely we play anyone other than Finland, Bulgaria, Israel, Hungary, Romania or Greece in the semis.

Finland did play well tonight at Armenia as well. Pukki was quite a handful.

[Guest JTS98]

Good thread.

I think the whole process is going to be fascinating, leading to some really interesting play-offs.

Obviously, we're looking for the Serbs to qualify. When you look at their squad they have a large number of players at very good clubs who are also at very good ages. Not only would you expect them to qualify, but they'll be looking to make a real impact on the tournament itself. They look well-positioned to be strong in the next 2 or 3 tournaments. Ukraine are erratic, so seeing who gets through that group will be interesting. I fancy Serbia though.

I'd also be keen to avoid Romania. They were unbeaten in the Nations League and since changing manager 18 months ago, they have only lost 2 out of 16 games with the kind of solid level of performance we'd kill for. They've won in Lithuania, Israel, and Montenegro and got a draw in Serbia. They'd be tough to beat at Hampden.

 

[MEADOWXI]

Best news is assuming we have to use it the Semi Final is one leg at Hampden, which I would hope is an advantage.

Is it correct the final is one leg and only decided on a coin toss after the semis?  

Meaning only about 4 days to arrange travel and hotels if qualify and if drawn away - doesn't seem a decent way to treat the fans

[charger29]

7 hours ago, JTS98 said:

I'd also be keen to avoid Romania. They were unbeaten in the Nations League and since changing manager 18 months ago, they have only lost 2 out of 16 games with the kind of solid level of performance we'd kill for. They've won in Lithuania, Israel, and Montenegro and got a draw in Serbia. They'd be tough to beat at Hampden.

I think we can take most of the possible teams at Hampden. We are dire away from home though so it's all on getting the home draw imo.

I can't say I know too much about the Romanians but thats an impressive record. There's a few teams in that mid C group who seem significantly better with a new manager, including Israel too.

15 minutes ago, MEADOWXI said:

Best news is assuming we have to use it the Semi Final is one leg at Hampden, which I would hope is an advantage.

Is it correct the final is one leg and only decided on a coin toss after the semis?  

Meaning only about 4 days to arrange travel and hotels if qualify and if drawn away - doesn't seem a decent way to treat the fans

Final is one leg too. I believe it is decided in advance whether semi 1 winner or semi 2 winner will be the host of the final. Don't quote me on that though.

I don't think it matters a great deal. Won't know until after the game, either way.

Unfortunately there aren't any international football periods between November and March to space the games out a bit.

[suitsuit]

I take it that if Serbia for example qualify outright through the group stages then it's just a case of each country moving up one place in the rankings? In that case Scotland would play Bulgaria?

[morrison1982]

15 minutes ago, suitsuit said:

I take it that if Serbia for example qualify outright through the group stages then it's just a case of each country moving up one place in the rankings? In that case Scotland would play Bulgaria?

I think so, but it could be complicated if League C teams are needed to be moved up to the League A or League B playoffs (i.e. if too many of the League A or League B teams have qualified directly).

[forameus]

Who needs to qualify so we can body Albania again?

[charger29]

30 minutes ago, suitsuit said:

I take it that if Serbia for example qualify outright through the group stages then it's just a case of each country moving up one place in the rankings? In that case Scotland would play Bulgaria?

Yes and no.

As the post by morrison1982 said, if there are spaces left in the League A and/or B play-offs which require League C teams to enter then there will be a draw to determine who goes where.

For example, if Serbia qualify and only 3 League B teams can go to the playoffs (i.e. don't qualify directly), there would be a draw between the next two best non-qualfied teams (say Bulgaria and Israel) to see who goes to C & who goes to B. They would become the lowest seeds in B & C. (This is slightly simplified because of the many possible permutations).

If Serbia qualify and there's no need for any other C teams to move to A or B, then it would just be everyone moving up a space (Scotland vs Bulgaria & Norway vs Finland).

[Adamski]

59 minutes ago, charger29 said:

For example, if Serbia qualify and only 3 League B teams can go to the playoffs (i.e. don't qualify directly), there would be a draw between the next two best non-qualfied teams (say Bulgaria and Israel) to see who goes to C & who goes to B. They would become the lowest seeds in B & C. (This is slightly simplified because of the many possible permutations).

If Serbia qualify and there's no need for any other C teams to move to A or B, then it would just be everyone moving up a space (Scotland vs Bulgaria & Norway vs Finland).

That sounds a tad unfair on the teams higher up the League C rankings. I thought Bulgaria would have earned the right to a more favorable draw than Israel, and playing-off against a League C team should theoretically be easier than a League B one.

[Marten]

50 minutes ago, Adamski said:

That sounds a tad unfair on the teams higher up the League C rankings. I thought Bulgaria would have earned the right to a more favorable draw than Israel, and playing-off against a League C team should theoretically be easier than a League B one.

That's what I thought previously as well and imo doing in that way would be common sense. But the UEFA in their wisdom decided differently...

[Gordopolis]

The thought of an away final vs Serbia  is making my feel sick to my bones

[charger29]

2 hours ago, Adamski said:

That sounds a tad unfair on the teams higher up the League C rankings. I thought Bulgaria would have earned the right to a more favorable draw than Israel, and playing-off against a League C team should theoretically be easier than a League B one.

Who do you cater for though? League C play-off teams will be saying we want the lowest seed in our section. League A or B teams will be saying the lowest seed should be in theirs as they've performed better to get into a higher division. UEFA have found an awkward middle of the road position on it.

I don't think there should be any seeding, including between group winners for the home semi. A straight draw makes far more sense. Trying to compare Scotland's points from games against Albania & Israel, to Finland's against Hungary, Greece & Estonia just seems silly.

They're doing a weird seeding of the main Euro's too now. Only 2020 qualifying points total is taken into account. The likes of France & Spain will be delighted with their draw featuring shitty 5th & 6th seeds. One of the most annoying parts of the whole setup imo.

[Adamski]

51 minutes ago, charger29 said:

Who do you cater for though? League C play-off teams will be saying we want the lowest seed in our section. League A or B teams will be saying the lowest seed should be in theirs as they've performed better to get into a higher division. UEFA have found an awkward middle of the road position on it.

 

That's a fair point - didn't think about it from the point of view of the teams in the higher pot.

[morrison1982]

10 hours ago, Gordopolis said:

The thought of an away final vs Serbia  is making my feel sick to my bones

Serbia got a good point away to Portugal in their first group game this week (they also drew a friendly with Germany). Ukraine got four points from six (including a draw with Portugal) but there is chat they might be docked points because one of their players shouldn't have been eligible*. To cut a long story short, Serbia are a decent bet to qualify directly.

* https://www.afp.com/en/news/824/uefa-probe-ineligibility-protests-over-ukraine-forward-moraes-doc-1f52zg1

Edited March 28, 2019 by morrison1982

[Karpaty Lviv]

15 minutes ago, morrison1982 said:

Serbia got a good point away to Portugal in their first group game this week (they also drew a friendly with Germany). Ukraine got four points from six (including a draw with Portugal) but there is chat they might be docked points because one of their players shouldn't have been eligible*. To cut a long story short, Serbia are a decent bet to qualify directly.

* https://www.afp.com/en/news/824/uefa-probe-ineligibility-protests-over-ukraine-forward-moraes-doc-1f52zg1

The FFU haven’t released a statement yet which might be an indicator as to their guilt. I don’t even know why Shevchenko bothered playing him, yes there’s a severe lack in quality strikers but fast tracking a Brazilian isn’t the answer. He’s already hated enough for signing for Shakhtar from Dynamo. 

Luxembourg have made an official complaint anyway.  

[John Lambies Doos]

The FFU haven’t released a statement yet which might be an indicator as to their guilt. I don’t even know why Shevchenko bothered playing him, yes there’s a severe lack in quality strikers but fast tracking a Brazilian isn’t the answer. He’s already hated enough for signing for Shakhtar from Dynamo.  Luxembourg have made an official complaint anyway.  

 

If they've played a player who isn't eligible then they have to be docked the 3 points. Simples, a fine is absolutely no advantage to any other team in the group. If that were to happen, countries with billions£ eg. Saudia Arabia would just play 11 Brazilians all the time. 

 

 

[realmadrid]

This document may help

In the play off section you can click through various potential scenarios.

https://web.archive.org/web/20180905214902/http://files.footballseeding.com/200002130-9283c937e4/UNL media briefing PDF version.pdf

[realmadrid]

I know its early and in some groups teams have only played 1 game but this is the split as it stands if the groups finished with the nations in the standings as it shows now.

League A - 8 teams in top two  - Play offs would be between Portugal, Netherland , Croatia and Iceland.

League B - 8 teams in top two - Play offs would be between Bosnia, Denmark, Austria and Czech Republic.

League C - 3 teams in top two = Play offs would be Scotland, Norway, Serbia and  Finland

League D - 1 team in top two = Play offs Georgia , Macedonia, Kosovo and Belarus

As it stands no team would move between groups but id say its highly unlikely that any League D team and so many League C teams would qualify automatically. 

 

 

[greenockraver]

would it not be completely reasonable for a team to get hammered all the way to division D in order to have an easy qualifying route?

[Ray Patterson]

25 minutes ago, greenockraver said:

would it not be completely reasonable for a team to get hammered all the way to division D in order to have an easy qualifying route?

Nah can't see that happening. The prize money is halved in League D, National Associations wouldn't miss out on €2m for a slightly easier qualifying route in two tournaments time. Makes no real sense.